Dems' Strong Week Of Polling, McMorrow Drops Out, Putin Attacks Kyiv, "Trump Is Cultural Heroin" (Corrected, Updated)
Stuart Stevens joins us live today at 12pm ET/The US Men play tonight at 8pm ET!
Morning all. An earlier version of this post sent this morning had a few consequential mistakes - yes it’s Monday! - so re-sending the whole thing with updates and corrections. Let’s move the daily subscriber discussion to this post…..sorry everyone!
Now, let’s get to it…..
There is a new time for today’s get together with Stuart Stevens - Noon ET. Please follow this link in a few minutes to join us. I always learn in these discussions with Stuart and promise you will too……
The detailed battleground state polling we got from the NYT and Fox News last week confirmed that 2026 truly is a year of opportunity for Democrats. Here’s a recap of some of what they found along with some other recent battleground polling:
I published three essays/analyses late last week diving into all this new data and what it means for the November elections, now just four months away:
New Battleground Polls Confirm That This Is A Year Of Opportunity For Democrats
More Notes On The Importance Of Character In The 2026 Elections
State Senator Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the US Senate race in Michigan yesterday, leaving our August 4th primary a contest between Rep. Haley Stevens and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. We will be tracking the developments in this must win Senate race closely in the days ahead, but remember all - this is just one race among the dozens we need to win this November.
On Friday Trump got a bad jobs report, just 57,000 net new jobs. It was an ugly reminder that not only has inflation surged on Trump’s watch but job growth has really slowed too:
Punchbowl News has a terrific overview of what a complete sh*tshow the Republican controlled Congress has become in recent weeks, and how little time left there is to do anything meaningful:
Time is truly running very short for the House and Senate Republicans. The House has just 24 legislative days until Election Day, with six of those fly-in days. Lawmakers will be out for all of August, a week in September, and all of October. So that means there are just 18 real legislative days before the midterm elections.
The Democrats on the House Natural Resources Committee have published a report that accuses Trump of corruptly hijacking the America at 250 celebrations:
As America’s birthday celebrations kick into high gear, so too do criticisms of the preeminent national group organizing them, Freedom 250.
Democrats on the House Natural Resources Committee published a 55-page report Thursday accusing the group of aiding President Trump in turning America’s milestone into a “hotbed of corruption and self-enrichment” through tactics that potentially amount to criminal fraud.
It’s titled “From Vanity to Insanity: How the White House Cheated the American People out of their 250th Birthday.”
Speaking of fraud The Atlantic celebrated our 250th birthday this weekend in part by revisiting an article it published ten years ago on July 4th, 2016:
TEN YEARS AGO TODAY, in the middle of the presidential campaign, an essay in The Atlantic set out to explain the appeal of Donald Trump. Its author traced that appeal to the social decline and cultural trauma he had known firsthand, in an impoverished childhood.
The author, J. D. Vance, had only days earlier published Hillbilly Elegy, which went on to sell roughly 3 million copies and made him, almost overnight, the country’s designated interpreter of working-class grievances. And he was quite good at it.
In the July 4, 2016, essay, Vance described the places from which the pain came—factories that downsized or ceased to exist, along with the jobs they had provided; the aesthetic decline in once beautiful and vibrant towns; families that were shattering or never forming in the first place; and anger and frustration with a government that had broken the trust with the people it was meant to serve. “During this election season,” Vance wrote, “it appears that many Americans have reached for a new pain reliever.” His name was Donald Trump.
In the midst of a social crisis, Vance observed, Trump offered “an easy escape from the pain. To every complex problem, he promises a simple solution.” But, he argued, such promises were a cheap high. “He never offers details for how these plans will work, because he can’t. Trump’s promises are the needle in America’s collective vein.”
“Trump is cultural heroin,” Vance wrote. “He makes some feel better for a bit. But he cannot fix what ails them, and one day they’ll realize it.”
On the eve of the NATO Summit Trump will be attending in Ankara, Turkiye on Tuesday and Wednesday Russia launched a barbaric attack on civilian targets in Ukraine:
These attacks prompted our friend Dr. Phillips O’Brien to post this:
Finally, the World Cup. Two great matches yesterday. Congrats to England and Norway for their inspired wins! Today we have Portugal vs Spain at 3pm, and the US vs. Belgium tonight at 8pm. There will time to discuss FIFA’s shocking lifting of the suspension of our star striker, Folarin Balogun. Today I’m just going to do everything I can to root our remarkable team to victory tonight!
And now, my friends, it is that time!
Time To Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
(Please be patient as we overhaul and update this section. Note that we have now changed our ActBlue default settings so that your contact information is only shared with a campaign if you give your affirmative permission. Many of you have asked for this and it is now our standard operating procedure. )
Winning The House
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $947,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - $166,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or running in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these seven, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with all of seven of these intrepid leaders here. We are off to a great start here everyone!
Winning The Senate
Our New Winning The Senate Fund - $459,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), Graham Platner (ME), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). The $459,000 figure is what we’ve raised for these six so far, as you see will below.
You can also continue to contributions to their individual campaigns here:
Roy Cooper For NC Senate - $129,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $114,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $8,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer
James Talarico For Texas - $101,500 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $28,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek
Jon Ossoff For GA Senate - $201,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff
Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Expansion States
Winning Iowa - $14,900 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart
Winning Ohio - $171,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help turn this critical 2026 battleground blue
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $620,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! |
Some Things To Call Congress About This Week
Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed Iran war - not every day Americans
Yes to the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk
No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……
Hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton
Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.
See the Hopium Agenda Project for what we can and should be fighting for now, and our Resolutions Project for ways to more forcefully condemn Trump’s unprecedented corruption and betrayal of the country.
Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better - And Keep It Paywall Free For All
A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. Our Independence day subsricption drive and sale netted us 276 new subscibers - a little short of our goal, but progress nonetheless. To help us hit our goal of 500 new subscribers I’m extending the sale of an annual new subscription through August 1st. So it’s 10% off an annual subscription now through the end of July, and follow the link below for group and gift subscriptions too!
Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon
Abandoning Ukraine to Russian aggression will be another dark stain upon our blemished past.
(this is a copy of my comments from yesterday on Mallory McMorrow dropping out of the race https://substack.com/@vindiesel9876/note/c-288849844?r=a36n2&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web)
Mallory McMorrow has dropped out of the Michigan Senate Race. I supported her and am sad to see her drop out but nonetheless I think this was the right decision, as it will allow a fair 1 on 1 contest between the top two candidates.
Now that Mallory has dropped out, I am supporting Haley Stevens. I appreciate Dr. El-Sayed’s powerful background and his charismatic leadership, but I am concerned about some of his positions (defund the police, abolish ICE, medicare for all) that are not well suited for a swing state like Michigan. Also, I consider his active campaigning with Hasan Piker in this campaign as an example of really bad judgment and evidence that he doesn’t understand what it takes to win in a state like Michigan.
Finally, I wish both Haley and Dr. El-Sayed the best and I expect that whoever wins the primary that we all come together and focus on defeating Mike Rogers in the general election and winning the Senate.