Friday Notes - Gas Prices Keep Rising, Trump Escalates, Rep. Smith A No On More War Funding

I'll be speaking at two events in the DC area in the next few weeks

Morning all. Brent Crude starts the day at $107, and gas prices in the US are now up $1.19 a gallon this year, 44%.

The markets continue to slide today:

And here’s my regular update on the total cost of the war to the world. Current estimate is between $7 trillion and $12 trillion (with assistance from Claude AI):

I haven’t written much about polls in the last few weeks for things have been remarkable stable - strong opposition to the war, and Trump has not gained any ground. Here’s some fresh data from G. Elliott Morris:

And here is the FiftyPlusOne Trump job approval aggregator. Holding steady in an ugly place:

As we’ve been discussing Trump has two options now in the Middle East. Withdraw before more damage is done to the global economy and the stability of the world (why would he do that?) or escalate. It appears he has chosen to escalate:

Perhaps this is why the Pentagon’s “supplemental” funding request, $200 billion, is so large. They are already accounting for ground troops and some kind of “limited” land war.

Greg Sargent just posted a newsy interview with our friend, Rep. Adam Smith, Ranking Member of the Armed Services Committee, the top Dem in the House on military matters. Here are some excerpts, and yes it is good to see Democrats talking about rolling back the Trump tax cuts. It is where we must go now:

the bottom line is it’s clear that Trump is not going to be able to achieve anything meaningful in Iran—which is a change of the regime and a change of action. I mean, degrading their capability is one thing, but at the cost that we’re currently experiencing—13 service members’ lives already lost, massive economic disruption, 14 countries dragged into this, civilian deaths, the tragic killing of 150 schoolgirls in Iran—massive cost, just to degrade Iran a little bit. He wants regime change. He wants something different. That’s not happening under the current plan.

Now, I don’t think it’s going to happen if he sends in a few thousand troops, either, but the pressure on him to escalate is growing in his own mind. The pressure is also growing on him to end this madness, stop this war, and recognize he’s not going to accomplish that. But we’ve sent 2,500 Marines—they’re now in the area. Another 2,500 are on their way. And you know, Marines don’t just sit in boats—they’re there for a purpose. And sadly, what we’ve learned in the last year is that when Trump masses forces, he uses them.

…….

It’s going to be very tough to get it through. I think all Democrats should oppose it. I mean, I’ll oppose it for no other reason than I oppose this war and I want this war to stop. But look—you want to know something really funny? You know what Congress tried to pass yesterday in the House? A balanced budget amendment. The Republican House put that out—I mean, I’m not often speechless, but I’m close to speechless trying to explain that. So there will be some Republicans who will say, Gosh, we can’t do this, it’s too expensive and all of that. But you know the pattern—they say it, and then at the end of the day, they do whatever Trump asks them to. So how many Republicans will actually oppose it? I don’t know.

Might there be a couple of Democrats who support it? One of the arguments is, well, even if you don’t support the war, we’ve gone to war, we’ve done it—don’t we have to pay for it? You know, forgive me, but fuck that. OK. If you want to pay for it, I’m going to raise taxes. You want to raise taxes? I can have that conversation. The idea that we’re going to dig into the rest of the budget—we’re cutting Medicaid, food stamps, we’re cutting all of these programs—and then we’re going to pull $200 billion aside on top of a $1.5 trillion defense budget? Hell no. No Democrat should vote for this. And I hope the Republicans who care about fiscal responsibility will stand up and say no. But it’s a tough call. And then you get into the whole 60 votes in the Senate—did they get rid of the filibuster? I think it’s going to be really difficult to pull through this amount of money.

…….

And once he stops this war, if you want to have a conversation about things that we need to pay for, fine. But then if you’re going to have that conversation, I’m not taking it out of the hide of all of these programs that are so important to my constituents. Put the goddamn taxes back on the table. You want war, you want a military this size, then fucking pay for it.

It is just so—as you can tell, it makes me angry thinking about all these Republicans running around saying, We’ve got to have a tough defense, we’ve got to have a strong defense. $4 trillion tax cut? I mean, there are stories out now about the billionaires—there was a story about Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and how many billionaires are showing up there—because all of these tax cuts have minted hundreds of new billionaires since 2017, so that we can all go into debt by $40 trillion and cut Medicaid? Bullshit. We should have a different approach to this.

I have three public events coming up in the next few weeks. Looking forward to seeing folks in person!

• Tue, March 24, 6pm - Washington, DC - I am co-hosting an event for the North Carolina Democratic Party next Tuesday night. Tickets start at $100. Come hang out with me and the great Anderson Clayton!

• Thur, April 9, 7pm - Bethesda, MD - I am doing an evening talk with the Women’s Democratic Club of Montgomery County. Registration info here.

• Fri, May 1, Lunch - Portland, Maine - I will be speaking at the Maine Democratic Party’s 2026 Convention in Portland, Maine. More details soon.

Now, it’s time……

To Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $336,000 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing later this month.

James Talarico For Texas - $32,600 raised, $100,000 March 31st goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Watch my recent interview with Rep. Talarico

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $51,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. | Watch my new interview with Mary Peltola

Winning Ohio - $80,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue!

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $89,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $144,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $420,800 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Sign Up For No Kings on March 28th

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; sign up for a No Kings event and watch my new interview with Indivisible’s Ezra Levin, a driving force behind No Kings.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions

• Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia

• Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs

• Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding

• Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People

• Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation

• End the War on Science, Health and Public Health

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, rescind the tariffs, and on blocking the “SAVE Act.”

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon