"He Has Gone Insane"

I am going live with Stuart Stevens at 1pm ET today. On Thursday Hopium Vote Yes phonebanks, and a live event in Bethesda too

Morning all. Let’s start what’s likely to be a very consequential week with an acknowledgement that the “he’s failed, has gotten old and crazy, and it’s time for him to go” sentiment is growing in our discourse. Here’s insidery Punchbowl News today. This is as close to calling Trump dangerously crazy as an insidery publication can get:

Trump Talk. Tracking and understanding Trump right now is very difficult, especially on the Iran war. It’s like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall. He’s all over the place on every issue — domestic policy, international affairs and Iran specifically — presenting Republicans with a political mess.

Here’s MTG in that extraordinary, perhaps even historic, Twitter post from yesterday:

Here’s that infamous Trump “Praise be to Allah” post that MTG refers to:

Here’s the NYT, on its front page, putting Trump’s wild and erratic behavior front and center today (gift link):

The world is on edge.

One minute, President Trump says the war in Iran is nearly over. The next he says it will continue for weeks. He brags that Iran has been “eviscerated,” but then vows that the fighting will go on. A huge bombardment, he says, might begin in five days, or 10 days, or on Tuesday at precisely 8 p.m. Eastern.

If the president means what he says, the world could be about 24 hours from a devastating escalation in the war. But like the producer of a television cliffhanger, Mr. Trump seems determined to keep everyone off balance.

On that, at least, he is succeeding.

In capitals around the world, presidents and prime ministers have spent almost six weeks seeking a way to prevent the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran from spiraling out of control. Diplomats from more than 40 countries gathered for a video call on Thursday that concluded with few concrete proposals. Leaders across Europe, Asia and beyond are exasperated, angry and more than a little spooked about what could be around the corner.

In an emergency cabinet meeting on Monday, President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea warned, “The scars of war are expected to persist for a long time.” In an Easter message, Mr. Lee lamented, “The order of peace and prosperity that has sustained the world is weakening.”

My central argument (here, here) over the past few weeks has been that as the enormity of the damage Trump’s failed and idiotic war has caused became more widely understood calls for a major course correction - including his ouster, or the formation of a national unity government - would grow. That he had not only lost the public, but had now also lost the legitimacy to lead. That over the past few weeks due to his many manifest failures and his increasingly volatile behavior (including new purges) it was going to become clear that we have a failed Presidency on our hands, and that electing him was a world-altering mistake.

I don’t know what’s going to happen this week in the Middle East, the sixth week of his “special military operation.” As we’ve been discussing there is no easy, face saving path left for Trump - only humiliating and costly ones.

Only 28% of Americans support the war; 14% support escalation and boots on the ground; and any escalation might not succeed. Escalation in Trump’s mind is also committing undeniable war crimes. The war remains illegal under American law, and we would continue to weaken our global military posture by pulling troops, weapons, and defense systems from other parts of the world.

But he cannot leave for if he does Iran and Russia will be effectively in charge of the global economy, and our future. So the Trump regime must now attempt to negotiate a rough peace, as they appear to be doing now. Though I just don’t know we can get a deal that Trump will accept for there is no “win” left for him - only retreat, defeat, and admission of catastrophic, disqualifying miscalculation and failure, which will end up dramatically weakening him here in the US and around the world.

I’ve been sharing a lot of charts in recent weeks for in the swirl of all this Trumpian madness they help ground us and help us find our bearings each day. Rather than repeating them today I’ve created two new pages that will have a curated selection of recent polling and economic data that I will update daily. But there are a few I do want to share again this morning……

First, here’s our revised estimate of the total cost of Trump’s failed war to the world. It already rivals the cost of the global economic crisis of 2008-2010 and COVID; is now double what it was a few weeks ago; and is now equal to China’s entire annual domestic output (GDP). It’s staggering to look at.

Here’s the revised Cleveland Fed’s projection for this Friday’s Consumer Price Index inflation report - annualized inflation rate over 10%!!!!!!!

Here is that new data from two of the most pro-Trump “red wave” pollsters out there. This is the data all Republican operatives from the White House to state leg races are seeing this week - erosion, decline, disaster:

And we are starting to get data showing Trump’s many manifest failures are starting to impact the relative brand strength of both parties:

We will at least three opportunities to discuss these unfolding events together this week:

• Today, 1pm, ET - I will be joining Stuart Stevens live over at Lincoln Square. Head here for the live discussion (note time has changed from noon)

• Wed, 6pm ET - Our weekly Hopium paid subscriber gathering (note new time just for this week). Register here.

• Thursday, 7pm in Bethesda, MD - I am excited to be joining my good friends at the Women’s Democratic Club of Montgomery Country this coming Thursday at 7pm. You can register here. Bring friends and colleagues, spread this through your networks. Going to be a lot of fun, and I am excited to be able to see members of this remarkable community in person!

New Hopium Phonebank Nights For Vote Yes In Virginia, April 9 and 16 - We are joining forces with our friends at Network NOVA to do two nights of phonebanking to drive our vote in the Vote Yes campaign in Virginia:

• Thursday, April 9, 530-8pm - Register here.

• Thursday, April 16, 530-8pm - Register here.

I will be kicking off both events and hanging around for a while to greet folks and thank everyone. Training will be provided for those who need it.

This statewide ballot initiative takes place on Tue, April 21st - so need the Hopium community to rally now, as you always do! Sign up for a shift today, bring friends, promote this through your networks. Let’s close strong in Virginia and bring this baby home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $545,000 raised, $500,000 - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Enjoy our new conversations with Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) | Learn about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

Huge shout-out to the team at FridayAction. Our event a week ago Wednesday with them has now raised $96,000 for our House candidates - amazing, amazing stuff! That total is included in our new amazing total, as is the money given to each individual House candidate in recent weeks.

James Talarico For Texas - $54,900 raised, $100,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $74,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Winning Ohio - $115,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $100,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $163,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $506,800 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions

• Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia

• Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs

• Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding

• Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People

• Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation

• End the War on Science, Health and Public Health

• Make Clear To American Farmers That We Want To End The War, Repeal The Tariffs, Find Legal Pathways For Farm Workers, And Make Health Care And Energy More Affordable

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.

And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon