Inflation Spikes, Trump Is Not Winning, Hegseth Obeys In Advance, Let's Keep Making Our Calls Everyone

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm ET - looking forward to seeing folks!

Morning all. Let’s recap what I wrote yesterday about Trump three weeks in - that he is weaker than he appears. Inflation is rising. The economy is slowing. Consumer confidence is falling. Trump has the highest disapproval of a President at this point their Presidency ever. His levying of tariffs this week is likely to accelerate price hikes and further slow the economy. He keeps losing in court, badly. He and Musk are alienating our allies, destroying our government, breaking laws (lots of laws), killing millions of people across the world, turning America into a global pariah. 8th graders are walking out on our new, ridiculous Defense Secretary. THIS IS NOT WINNING.

This morning the main monthly gauge of inflation came out, the Consumer Price Index, and it showed an alarming jump in inflation and in grocery prices. Both jumped 0.5% in January, which is about 6% on an annualized basis. Inflation had been running at 3% annualized and groceries 2% annualized. This is a very bad inflation report. Here’s a chart from the CPI report:

A central theme we keep returning to here at Hopium is that Trump’s agenda is inflationary, that what he was about to do would increase prices - not lower them - on purpose. Deporting millions of workers will raise prices for food, health care, day care, restaurants and hotels and many other items. His tariffs and the eventual retaliatory tariffs raised on our exports will raise prices throughout the American economy. Rising inflation is preventing the Fed from cutting interest rates, keeping mortgages, car loans, business loans and credit card debt high. Trump promised to lower costs. He lied. He never had an agenda to lower costs. In fact Trump given all this data - economy slowing, inflation rising - choose to levy tariffs this week. It was a decision to raise prices on all of us, and a potent reminder that the presumption that Republicans understand economics or pursue policies grounded in sound economic theory is one of the biggest of the big lies of the past several generations of American politics. Tax cuts = growth has always been a rancid and destructive right-wing fiction.

Whatever he said, or believed, Trump’s agenda was always going to raise prices, and now it has, significantly, immediately, in fact. And as I showed yesterday in both polling data and the U of M consumer confidence data voters are not happy about it. The American economy is already weakening under Trump. We are weaker today than we were a month ago. We - and he - are not winning.

The Hopium Daily Reminder:

Trump 2.0 is a profound, ongoing betrayal of America, and everything that has made this remarkable nation the most powerful and prosperous in the world. It is why we must fight. As dark as all this is, we cannot for one moment forget that what Trump is doing is wrong; he and his project remain deeply unstable and his coalition fractious; he is doing deeply unpopular things, going far beyond his narrow “mandate;” he is old, impulsive, reckless and clearly in decline; and extremists and ideologues are often far better at bread and circuses than governing.

In breaking news as we go to print quisling Pete Hegseth obeyed in advance this morning and gave Putin a big ole luvy duvy Valentine’s Day present:

1st Known Person To Die From USAID Vaporization - The dying has begun. From The Telegraph:

A 71-year-old woman has died after her oxygen supply was cut off when the United States announced a freeze on aid funding.

Pe Kha Lau, a refugee from Myanmar living in a displacement camp in neighbouring Thailand, died four days after she was discharged from a USAID-funded healthcare facility operated by the International Rescue Committee (IRC).

She is thought to be one of the first people to have died as a direct result of Washington’s decision to freeze all funding for aid projects for 90 days.

Her family told Reuters that she had frequently been sent to hospital in the last three years as she was dependent on a supply of oxygen, but was sent home after the IRC received a “stop-work” order in late January

…….

Pe Kha Lau is not the only one affected. In Umpiem Mai camp in Thailand, which is home to more than 10,000 people who fled the brutal civil war in neighbouring Myanmar, a resident and a health worker told ABC that multiple patients who were reliant on oxygen have now died.

“The medical workers left without even taking the equipment and the patients had to return to their homes, including some who had to be carried out,” said Sulaiman Mawlawi, a camp resident. “It was a very tragic moment for us.”

There are also reports of refugees giving birth in former school buildings after the hospital closures.

A complicated conflict has been raging in Myanmar since the military seized power four years ago. Almost a third of the population is now reliant on humanitarian aid, while at least 3.5 million have been internally displaced since February 2021. Hundreds of thousands more have fled the country, including into neighbouring Thailand

……

One doctor working inside Myanmar – whose group receives roughly $1.5 million from USAID each year, but who asked not to be named amid concerns it could affect funding in the future – said the sudden halt demonstrates “a total lack of respect for ill people and life”.

“The stopping and then restarting – instead of planning and then deciding what to stop and what to continue – has of course caused numerous avoidable deaths,” he told the Telegraph, adding that he knows of at least seven NGOs that have stopped some activities.

He said that the full ramifications may take some time to unfold.

“Most of the time you will not see the worst consequences immediately,” the doctor said by email. “If you stop TB or AIDS treatment it can take months, a year before the patient dies. However, the patient’s bacteria or virus might have developed resistance which will make it much more difficult to treat when you re-start.”

Another medic in central Myanmar, a region hard hit by the conflict, said his team have had to pause services because they do not have reserve funds to stem gaps from the USAID freeze. His group receives close to $2 million a year.

“We will lose that amount to save the lives of the people – so it is frustrating for us,” he told the Telegraph, also asking to remain anonymous. “Without the US, we don’t have funds to continue a lot of our work.”

Republicans Urge Trump To Follow Court Orders - While this may all be bullshit, let’s dive into the lead story right now in right-leaning The Hill right now. It is far better than the alternative, and we need to keep the pressure on everyone:

Senate Republicans are urging President Trump to respect the rulings of federal judges who have blocked his executive actions to freeze spending on federal grants and loans, dismantle the U.S. Agency on International Development (USAID) and ban birthright citizenship.

GOP lawmakers have been reluctant to criticize Trump’s actions, fearing it could make them targets for primary challenges next year.

But they are growing increasingly worried about the nation plunging into a constitutional crisis if Trump ignores court orders halting his most aggressive actions.

“The White House should comply with court rulings. The Congress should comply,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday.

“We have a judicial system. If you don’t like the ruling, you can appeal the ruling and you can follow that through. But we are a nation of laws and it is not necessarily for you or I to be the final arbiter here. This is why we entrust the judiciary with this responsibility,” she said.

Trump later Tuesday said he would abide by court rulings, and that he would appeal those with which he disagreed.

“I always abide by the courts, and then I’ll have to appeal it,” Trump said when asked if he would comply with court orders if they blocked his agenda.

Trump’s Belligerence Could Cost US Tens of Billions in Tourism Revenue - I’m going to work hard to get more data on this in the coming days, but the US earns tens of billions of dollars from foreign tourists each year. If there is a drop off due to Trump’s ugliness, it could cost us a lot of money and cause meaningful job loss in tourism related industries already being hit hard by Trump’s immigration raids and deportations. Here’s a recent warning from the US Travel and Tourism industry. Clearly they are nervous by what they are seeing and hearing as potential visitors throughout the world begin to make their summer plans:

New tariffs on Canada could impact Canadian visitation to and spending in the United States. Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States, with 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs. A 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to spend domestically instead, stating:

“Now is the time to choose Canada...It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer.”

The top 5 most visited states by Canadians—Florida, California, Nevada, New York and Texas—could see declines in retail and hospitality revenue, as shopping is the top leisure activity for Canadian visitors.

Let’s Get To Work - Here are my current working recommendations for calls/contacts this week. Four today, and thanks to all of you who are busting your ass right now:

• Keep calling to stop Musk’s crime spree and assault on the US government. Encourage your Senators and Reps to file a criminal referral for him and his malicious posse to DOJ/FBI. Feel free to add that you would like funding for USAID restored so our government does not kill millions and millions of people this year in our name.

• Keep calling Attorneys General in the states. Ask them to protect you and your data/privacy, and to keep federally mandated monies flowing to your states and communities. For those in the 19 states that brought the successful Treasury suit this weekend thank them and encourage them to keep going. I still believe these 19 states should make criminal referrals of Musk/his posse to DOJ/FBI this week, and raise the stakes.

• Demand full NIH funding for biomedical research be restored. For more on this emerging story read this new article from Liberal Currents by Samantha Hancox-Li and Adam Gurri. While a judge reinstated the funding Monday there is new reporting that the Administration is ignoring this court order.

• Insist they fight to challenge and rollback Trump’s tariffs which will raise prices here, strain our alliances, undermine the rules-based global order and make us a rogue, pariah nation. This is all particularly true as new data tells us the American economy is slowing, inflation is rising and consumer sentiment is dropping. There is perhaps no greater Trumpian betrayal of America than these tariffs. For more background, see this post which includes my recent interview with leading economist Dr. Rob Shapiro.

Paid subscribers should self-report their actions today in our daily chat. So inspired by how hard so many of you are working. I want to make a special plea to all Hopium readers in states with Republican Senators - please make your calls, every day. Even 50 to 100 people calling every day in every red state can make a difference. We have hundreds of Hopium subscribers in every state in the country and it’s critical that we all do our part now.

From Hopium community member Kati K this morning. Yes Kati!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks, Simon! Donated! Calling Reps, writing letters, showing up. And walking and playing more music, spending time in nature. Please take care of yourselves everyone!! Don’t let their chaos interrupt calm action and daily joy.

A note - while physical protests and rallies are a vital part of how we build our new opposition movement, make sure you only attend or promote events by organizations you know and trust. This is really important.

Via my friend Stephen Clermont here’s a great nugget from the new CBS poll. This data is for Democrats. It’s a 38 point swing. Keep working everyone!

For those wanting to do more traditional political/campaign work, we have three Hopium-backed efforts we're rallying behind right now:

Help Get Ken Martin Off To A Strong Start - In this time of extraordinary challenge we need a strong DNC. A week ago Saturday we set a goal of raising $100,000 by March 31st for our new Chair. Incredibly, over 1,000 of you have donated over $104,000 so far. Watch my interview with Ken about what he wants to do with the DNC, and chip in whatever you can to help Ken and the new exciting team at the DNC get off to a strong start. We now have a new stretch goal of $150,000 by March 31st after hitting our initial goal of $100,000 in just seven days!

Note that two other good friends of Hopium - David Hogg and Jane Kleeb - were elected Vice Chairs of the DNC this weekend (Jane was elected head of the ASDC which also makes her a DNC Vice Chair). You can watch my inspiring interviews with David here, and with Jane here and learn more about where they want to take the party in the days ahead.

Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Virginia will be one of the big battlegrounds of the November, 2025 elections and we have a great candidate for Governor, Abigail Spanberger. Watch my interview with Abigail, donate, volunteer, and learn more here. Given how many federal employees live in Virginia, this race is also now on the front lines of the Trump/Musk assault on the federal government. We’ve raised more than $32,000 so far towards our March 31st goal of $100,000 - thank you all. Let’s keep working it for Abigail!

Help Susan Crawford and Ben Wikler in Wisconsin - As a way of honoring our good friend Ben Wikler and supporting this critical April Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, I’m asking our community to donate to the Wisconsin Democratic Party today. The money raised here will make sure Ben has the resources he needs to keep his team in place so they can support this critical statewide race. I know many of you are already deeply involved here - thank you all. More on this critical election in the coming days. Our goal is to raise $50,000 by April 1st. We’ve raised $22,000 so far - thank you all!

More Things To Do - Dive into my recent interviews with folks who are making a difference. Check out our upcoming events. Paid subscribers should register for our get together tonight at 7pm ET. Come see me in Bethesda, Maryland next Tuesday. Watch my new video presentation, Fighting Hard, Fighting Smart - Notes On Building A Ferocious and Effective Opposition and review my 7 Initial Takeaways From The 2024 Elections.

The Korean War Memorial - Washington, DC

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon