January Will Be A Consequential Month, The Mamdani Era Begins, Russia Is Not Winning In Ukraine

Rest up folks and get ready to go to work on Monday. January is going to be a very consequential month.....

Morning all. Congress returns from its break next week, and it is going to be a deeply consequential month ahead. If there is no fiscal year 2026 budget the government will run out of money again on January 30th. The lawlessness of the DOJ and a flood of new Epstein files/photos/video will keep this rancid affair front and center. Trump’s tariffs could be struck down by the Supreme Court, throwing the budget negotiations into chaos; or perhaps worse for the Rs, they will be allowed to continue, further weakening the economy and keeping prices too high. Next Tuesday is the 5th anniversary of Trump’s attack on the Capitol in 2021, and Democrats will be marking it with a day long set of events. The fight to prevent Trump from selling out Ukraine and Europe - and our own security - to Putin continues, as does the fight to stop Trump from continuing to commit War Crimes and violate both US and international law in the Americas. Across the country state and local elected officials at all levels of government are returning to govern against the harms Trump has done to their people - higher prices, rising joblessness, the assault on health care and food assistance, soaring utility prices, an out of control DHS/ICE, worker shortages, struggling farmers and small businesses - which will make the ugliness of what they’ve done far more proximate to people all across the country.

It is going to be a very consequential month. Rest up this weekend and get ready to go to work on Monday.

The Mamdani era began yesterday in New York City. Professors Pamela Heard and Don Moynihan have a thoughtful early take on his ambitious speech yesterday, Understanding Mamdani’s Vision: His inauguration speech challenges the left to to govern. You can watch the speech here, and find a transcript here. Let’s all find time in the coming days to watch/read the speech and share our impressions as the Mamdami era begins……

The new Mayor at work on his first day

New York City Comptroller Mark Levine posted this reminder on Bluesky a few days ago. As we’ve often discussed here Democrats should be taking far more credit for having brought down violent crimes of all kinds over the past generation, everywhere. America is much safer today:

I think we are beginning to understand why the Trump regime has been so manic and hurried in its attempt to force Ukraine to surrender these last few weeks, working overtime during the Holidays - Putin’s regime may be in trouble, and he desperately needs a win in Ukraine. Consider:

• that last year Russia lost its most important ally in the Arab world, Syria, and both its naval and land bases there, ones they used for its operations in the region

• Trump is threatening to remove Maduro in Venezuela, Russia’s most important ally in the Americas

• The Iran regime, Russia’s great global partner, is struggling, protests are growing, and as in Venezuela, the US is on the other side of this conflict

• Oil prices around the world have plummeted, putting intense pressure on Putin’s budget and the Russian economy

• And as historian Ruth Deyermond writes in a new must-read Bluesky thread - Russia isn’t in winning in Ukraine. Here’s an excerpt:

1. Russia isn’t winning in Ukraine.

Russia has expended extraordinary levels of resources, lost hundreds of thousands of men, and restructured its economy all in the attempt to win a war it started for no obvious reason against a smaller, less well-resourced state.

‪After four years – equivalent to all of the US Civil War or almost all of WW1 - it’s no closer to this goal than it was in 2022. There’s no reason to think that Russia, with a weaker economy, will do in 2026 or 2027 what it was unable to do in 2022-2025.

Russia’s only real chances to win anything in Ukraine are political – by convincing the US and Europe that it’s inevitably winning. Take that away, and Russia looks much more vulnerable.

‪2. Russia isn’t a great power, so stop thinking of it as one.

‪This is the reason there’s an assumption that Russia will inevitably win in Ukraine: it’s a great power so it must be unbeatable against a smaller state. But it isn’t unbeatable and it isn’t a great power.

Russia inherited 3 great power attributes from the USSR: a large nuclear arsenal, a permanent UNSC seat, and a position at the centre of a former empire that gave it (it thought) an automatic sphere of influence.

But those are legacies of an actual great power and Russia under Putin has done nothing to earn the label for which its political elite is so desperate beyond some patchy overseas military and diplomatic engagement and highly effective interference operations in democracies.

Thanks to the monumentally stupid decision to invade Ukraine, Russia is even less of a great power than it was 4 years ago. If your military capacity relies on DPRK and Iran, and you’ve turned yourself into a dependent of China, you’re not a great power.

Fellow patriots, it is time for Congress to step up and pass the bipartisan Russia sanctions package (with 85 cosponsors!!!!!) that Senator Thune has recklessly shelved. For Russia is weak, and getting desperate, as we saw with Putin’s ridiculous lie about Ukraine attempting to kill him a few days ago (though that would be justified in my mind). Russia’s increasingly brazen hybrid war attacks in Europe and the clear pressure they are putting on Trump should perhaps be seen in this light - Russia desperately needs to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine, a war they are not winning. It is why Congress must act forcefully in January and seize the opening now in front of us and further weaken Putin’s dangerous regime.

A few other things I’m tracking:

The Guardian has a remarkable new interview with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, an ex officio member of the Kennedy Center Board, where he accuses the Trump regime of corruptly running the storied institution. Here’s a passage from ’Their first instinct was to loot’: how Trump’s acolytes are plundering the Kennedy center:

The takeover of the national cultural centre began in February when, in what many critics regard as a case study in institutional capture, Trump ousted members of the Kennedy Center board appointed by former president Joe Biden, took over as chair and installed Ric Grenell, a longtime ally and former ambassador to Germany, as its president.

In November Whitehouse, the top Democrat on the Senate environment and public works (EPW) committee, launched a formal investigation into allegations of widespread cronyism, financial mismanagement and corruption at what he describes as a “secular temple to the arts”.

Democrats on the committee said they obtained documents that suggest the national cultural centre is being operated as a “slush fund and private club for Trump’s friends and political allies”, resulting in millions of dollars in losses and a significant deviation from its statutory mission.

Whitehouse sent a letter to Grenell demanding detailed documents and records. Grenell issued a fiery response accusing the senator of “partisan attacks and false accusations”. He claimed that neglect by the centre’s previous leadership left it in “financial chaos” and was “quite literally making the building fall apart”.

Whitehouse, an ex officio member of the Kennedy Center board, remains undeterred and determined to press on with his investigation. Speaking in his office on Capitol Hill, he explained: “We began to get information about mischief taking place at the Kennedy Center and we got strong enough signals that we mounted an effort to dig into it and see what seemed actually to be going on.

“It was out of that effort that the report and letter came, which basically suggested that, when the brigands took the ship, their first instinct was to loot it for their own benefit and hire their friends and put people up in fancy rooms at the Watergate [hotel] and let favoured organisations get free access and it was all part of a Maga party atmosphere.”

The New York Times has published two remarkable stories in recent days that I strongly recommend (with gift links):

• A comprehensive look at Trump’s unprecedented corruption - Trump’s Tangled Web Of Deal-Making, Policy, And Riches

• Grim Evidence of Trump’s Airstrikes Washes Ashore on a Colombian Peninsula

The Washington Post has published an alarming analysis about the decline of vaccination rates among young people across the US.

The batshit crazy DHS social media accounts shared this incredible meme about “peace” here in the US after “100 million deportations.” There are only 11-12 million undocumented people living in the US. There are however 68 million Hispanics and 22 million Asians, or 90 million. However they got to 100 million something like this would require forcibly removing close to 90 million citizens and those already legally here.

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!

I’m excited to announce that in the last few days of 2025 we hit our most important remaining fundraising goals - $50,000 for our four intrepid House candidates, and $250,000 for the Audacious Expansion Fund - amazing work everyone! As you will see we’ve set new goals for those two critical efforts….

Winning The Midterms - Support Our Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $62k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversations with Gov. Cooper and NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $107k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $52,500 raised, $250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10)

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps, Winning In Red States and Red Places (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $259,000 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Enjoy my conversations with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties and to all of you - we have hit our audacious 2025 goal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last Tuesday’s post recapped our our very productive year together. In three new essays (here, here, here) I look forward to next year and discuss how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up, be loud, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land.

The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.

Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, Defend Our Democracy - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:

1. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his current efforts to force Ukraine to surrender

2. Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean and the Pacific - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law

3. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world. To put America on a sounder fiscal course due to the enormous deficits brought by Trump’s 2025 tax cuts we should reverse these cuts to the wealthy and corporations

4. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress, end the rancid cover up, and release all of the Epstein files

5. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA, Medicaid and our clean energy investments; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - Next year, on July 4th, America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard everyone. We had a lot of wins in 2025, but all understand our most important work lies ahead - Simon