Let's Show Bob Brooks (PA-7) Some Love Today, Trump's Failed War Keeps Failing, Talarico's 1st General Election Ad

People are voting in Maryland, New York, South Carolina, and Utah today......

Morning all. Got a few things for you today:

The Failed War, The Trumped Up Stock Market, The Never Ending Clown Show - There’s one word to describe the Trump regime’s efforts to end their ridiculous war - CHAOS. It’s impossible to know what is really going on, and the Iranian government has been repeatedly calling out our government, including the VP, for making stuff up over the last few days. It’s been shocking to watch, and it’s all being driven by our regime’s clear awareness they simply cannot sell their failed war and disastrous surrender to the public, and even to leaders of their own party - so they just lie, invent, confabulate and look like idiots and fools to the world…..

This morning the weakened, struggling Trump regime was greeted with a potentially ominous development - a big stock market sell off:

The only real success Trump can point to is a booming stock market. If that comes to an end he will lose what has been his central 2026 election argument.

There Are Elections Today in MD, NY, SC, UT - I will be breaking down the election results and providing an in depth overview of the current state of play in the midterms at two live events tomorrow:

• 915am ET - Coffee With The Contrarians with Katie Phang

• 7pm ET - Hopium paid subscriber weekly get together (register here).

Our big race tonight is NY-17, where Cait Conley is fighting to prevail in her primary against an incredible onslaught of late GOP advertising. We’ve surpassed our $10,000 goal and are currently at almost $22,000 - thanks to everyone who has stepped up in this critical pick up opportunity, one of the best in the country. Learn more about this race and the GOP’s illicit campaign to intervene in our primaries here and here.

Trump Heads To PA-07 Today. Can We Throw A Little Love To Bob Brooks? - Trump heads to PA-07 today, another one of our very best pick up opportunities in the country. Between their illicit effort to intervene in our primaries and Trump’s campaign schedule we are learning about how the Rs see the House battlefield.

• Districts where Republicans have spent heavily in our primaries: CA-22, ME-02, NJ-07, NY-17, PA-07, TX-35.

• Districts where Trump has visited: IA-1 and IA-3 (Bohannan and Trone Garriott), NY-17 (Conley, likely), PA-8 (Cognetti), WI-3 (Cooke) and today PA-07 (Brooks).

This second group should be viewed as the districts they are most concerned about, and where we have the greatest opportunity. Hopium has endorsed in all these races - Bohannan, Cognetti, Cooke, and Trone Garriott are part of our original Winning the House campaign; Brooks is part of our Second Wave Fund; and we’ve been raising this past week for Conley.

Learn more why Republicans are so concerned about PA-7 by watching my recent interview with Bob Brooks, one of our most impressive candidate in the country, and consider donating to his campaign today to give him a little boost!

The Washington Post has published a new analysis of the very strong Dem turnout in House races we’ve seen so far this cycle, Democratic turnout is up, even in Republican districts, Post analysis finds. It’s further confirmation that Trump and Republicans are right to be worried about the November election. Here’s one bit of their data (gift link):

Talarico Launches His First General Election Ad, And It’s A Good One - Here it is:

A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll/YouGov poll released this morning has Talarico tied with Ken Paxton:

Trump’s approval in Texas is -8, in a state he won by 14 points:

It should be noted that all Republican statewide candidates are under 50% in this poll, including Governor Abbott, who leads his race against Rep. Gina Hinojosa 47%-40%. Abbott won in 2022 by 11%, 2018 by 13%, and 2014 by 20%. State and national Republicans cannot be happy with this data, data this is consistent with much of the data we’ve seen from Texas in recent weeks. To get an overview of our opportunities in Texas be sure to watch my uplifting interview with TX Dem Chair Kendall Scudder.

Here’s my selection of recent polling in the Senate battlegrounds. Try to avoid partisan polls when I can, from both sides. The bottom line - we have a shot peeps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Other Stories We Are Tracking -

• Trump is attending the weekly GOP Senate lunch tomorrow. Sparks could fly.

• Trump lost two important cases involving his attempt to build a national voter registry yesterday - one involving DHS itself, another in Maryland.

• The Democrats On The House Oversight Committee have released a new report, ABANDONING AMERICANS TO DISEASE: The Trump Administration’s Reckless Crusade is Harming America’s Health. A new study finds that the ACA and Medicaid have seen a loss of 5m enrollees in recent months - deeply worrisome stuff.

• The dead duck around the Reflecting Pool count is now up to 3.

• Incredibly, the tarp is still up at the Kennedy Center.

Now, My Friends, It’s Time Get To Work!!!!!

Some Things To Call Congress About This Week

• Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed Iran war - not every day Americans

• Yes to the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

Help Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 160 new people, strong progress towards our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success. Follow the link for group and gift subscriptions too!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

(Please be patient as we overhaul and update this section)

Supporting Battleground Candidates For The House and Senate

Caitlin Conley For NY-17 - We’ve launched a special campaign to help Cait Conley win her primary next Tuesday in one of the most flippable House seats in the country. Watch my interview with Cait - West Point grad, special ops leader, 3 times Bronze Star recipient - and a huge thank you to everyone who has contributed so far. We are almost at $22,000 - great work everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $790,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $85,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $21,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $105,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $89,100 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $3,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer |

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $124,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. CooperExpanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Expansion States (we will filling out this section in coming days)

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Expansion States

Winning Iowa - $7,800 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with our great gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand

Winning Ohio - $163,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $600,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds.

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon