Little Cracks Can Become Big Cracks, Little Wins Can Become Big Wins - If We Keep Working Hard

The American people have begun to turn on Trump, and we have to keep working hard

Morning all. I don’t know how the Trumpian fever breaks, how the madness subsides, and how we return to the Constitutional order and the America we and the world has known for generations. It’s clear that in these early days Democrats have not yet found their voice on the extremism and danger of Trump - his alliance with Putin, his abandonment of Europe and Ukraine, his “off with their heads” tariffs, his unconstitutional and illegal dismantling of the US government including our global and domestic public health systems, his clear and worsening madness. Our early, narrow focus on costs and the terrible GOP budget while tactically sound, are strategically insufficient as Trump and Musk rip apart the global order and our own government in ways that will be very hard, if not impossible, to put back together. Some of the damage being done right now to what I call the America of the Four Freedoms is irreparable, which is why in the coming weeks our leaders - all of them - must work harder to find their voice on this assault and do everything they can to stop it.

Here again is the oath every House and Senate member takes. Protecting the Constitutional order is the primary reason these Senators and House Members are here. Nothing in there about protecting the American people from $8 a dozen eggs:

I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.

What makes me hopeful we can stop Trump? First, what he is doing is so obviously a betrayal of everything that has made America prosperous, powerful and respected in the world that we should be able to find our voice in the coming weeks. There is a “you have to be shitting me” quality to what is happening now, a recklessness, fanaticism, a “have you no decency, sir” element that is there for us to seize - if we try.

Trump’s job approval has dropped by about 8 points since his Inauguration. Here is 538’s latest tracker (one still pumped up by loads of Dear Leader GOP polls):

Two important trackers of consumer sentiment have found significant drops since Trump came to office, and his ratings on the economy today are far, far lower in every possible measure than they were in his first term. Most voters understand now that Trump = higher prices, tougher times for them and their families. It’s astonishing how quickly his sentiment has taken hold with the electorate. It is a profound new weakness for him. A new Bloomberg poll shows how much potential backlash there may be to Trump’s planned implementation of broad tariffs next week:

As President Donald Trump rolls out new tariff threats on an almost daily basis, most recently promising that delayed levies against Canada and Mexico will go ahead on March 4, Americans are increasingly worried. While Wall Street sees the constant threats (and the predictable headlines and chyrons that follow) as a simple negotiating ploy, a survey of everyday taxpayers shows deep concern over what will happen if Trump actually follows through.

According to a Harris Poll conducted for Bloomberg News, almost 60% of US adults expect Trump’s tariffs, if enacted, will lead to even higher prices. Some 44% say the levies are likely to be bad for the US economy compared with 31% who say they’d be a boost. With more signs every day that inflation has ceased a bumpy, almost three-year decline, economists have said the “toxic” uncertainty created by Trump is already damaging the US economy.

Even within his own party, whose leaders have generally maintained lockstep fealty in the face of Trump’s expansive and sometimes facially illegal orders, many aren’t sold on his trade agenda. Only half of Republican respondents to the poll said tariffs, likely to bring swift retaliation from targeted nations, would be an economic boon.

It is remarkable how quickly and comprehensively he has lost the economic argument with the American people, given how central the memory of “things were better under Trump” was to his 2024 election win. He is already far weaker than he was on Election Day, something as we’ve discussed here is driving the huge concerns in the GOP about pursuing large cuts to Medicaid. The loss of the “Trump fights for me” vibe in the 2017 fight over the repeal of the ACA doomed the Rs in the 2018 midterms. In that fight they went from champions of the middle class to betrayers, their standing never recovered and we won by 8.6 points and flipped the House in November of 2018.

And let’s be clear about Trump’s economy so far - prices are higher, the economy is slowing, jobless claims are spiking, the markets are spooked, interest rates are staying elevated and high, and Trump may be about to add huge new shocks to an already teetering economy - millions of newly unemployed, crippling tariffs and price increases, hold on hundreds of billions of planned government spending into the economy, a huge expansion of our deficit and national debt, the dismantling of our health care system.

The economic case we have against Trump is powerful, and the public is on our side. We must continue to be aggressive here. A new poll by Navigator Research, however, shows there is opportunity now for Democrats to move beyond our early, narrow (and effective) high costs/tax cuts for wealthy people and open up new fronts against Trump along the lines I think we must. There is huge concern in the public about what Trump is doing to our government and the programs people rely on even without characterizing it as as illegal, unconstitutional and a betrayal of the country (which we must). Look at the numbers with independents - they are not on board this part of the Trump train…..

My point today, on this the last day of February, just five weeks into the terrible new Trump era, is that cracks in Trumpism are emerging. He is making mistakes, huge mistakes. Public opinion is becoming more hostile to what he is doing. His economic strategy is hurting the country and people understand this. Republicans are aware their emerging budget strategy is a betrayal of working people and could drive down their standing even further. The courts keep delivering wins, and our 23 Dem state AGs have become a formidable force. Americans are waking up to what is happening, and we are seeing a growing citizen-led opposition movement spread across the country. Folks are outraged and pissed, as they should be. Republicans in Congress are feeling it. They are increasingly speaking out against Trump’s budget, his selling out to Putin, his trampling of the Constitution. Look at this new story from the Washington Post - prominent Republican Senators wrote a letter to Rubio telling him what he was doing to USAID WAS ILLEGAL and that HE WAS BREAKING THE LAW:

A handful of Republican senators have joined their Democratic colleagues in expressing alarm over the Trump administration’s foreign aid freeze and gutting of USAID, writing to Marco Rubio that they believe the State Department is not operating in accordance with the law by neglecting to notify and consult with Congress during the process, according to correspondence obtained by The Washington Post.

The senators have also asked Rubio to defend the freeze in a hearing on Capitol Hill in the coming weeks.

The letters were dated earlier this month and sent by members of the Senate Appropriations Committee. They mark some of the first signs of meaningful — if private — GOP pushback to the Trump administration’s striking encroachment on Congress’s power of the purse and betray some frustration with Rubio’s lack of responsiveness to his former colleagues.

I don’t know how we stop the madness. But what I do know is that this Trump thing is not working well. His economic strategy is hurting the country and voters are unhappy. He is acting lawlessly and recklessly, and opening up a huge new critical front for us to go on offense and define him as a betrayer of everything that has made America great - and stop the incredible damage they are doing to the country. Public opinion is turning against him, and we have to keep driving his approval down. Like many of you I am deeply frustrated at what has been a far too timid response by national Democrats to the Trumpian wrecking ball. But our path is clear now - keep making the economic arguments, but open up a second front on his ongoing attack on the America of the Four Freedoms and the global and domestic systems which have made us the most prosperous and powerful nation in history. There is urgency to opening up this second front for me must, must stop the Trump/Musk tearing down of our government for the things they are breaking now - our reputation, our ability to defend ourselves, our public health systems, the drivers of our prosperity - will not be easy to repair. It is why we need to keep fighting, keep leading, and keep doing everything we can to make sure Trump does not succeed. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - and yes, we have a lot of work ahead of us.

My Notes On The Path Forward And Building An Effective and Ferocious Opposition - See my new essays (here, here) on this process of building the opposition and our critical role in leading the way; watch my new video that goes into greater detail, reminding us that

We are Americans. Fighting for freedom and democracy is what we do. Who we are.

Learn why I think it’s time for Congressional Dems to “let Facts be submitted to a candid world;” read my post that pulls together all my big recommendations for the pro-democracy family; and watch my recent interviews with Rep. Eric Swalwell and journalist Leon Krauze for in-depth discussions on how we must fight harder, smarter and get much much louder now.

OK, Let’s Get To Work!!!! - Here are my current working recommendations for calls/contacts this week. Four today, and thanks to all of you who are busting your ass right now:

Fight The Musk Attack On Our Government And Our Privacy, End His Historic Crime Spree - . Encourage your Senators and Reps to let Facts be be submitted to a candid world and criminal referrals filed for him and his malicious posse to DOJ/FBI; insist Senators and Reps file amicus briefs in the court cases regarding the usurpation of their Constitutional authorities or file suits of their own; encourage them to hold a daily morning press conference to more aggressively challenge Musk’s ransacking of the USG that is making America less prosperous, less healthy, less safe and far less respected in the world.

Organize Against The 17 Most Vulnerable Republican House Members - For those of you who live in AZ, CA, CO, IA, MI, NE, NJ, NY, PA, VA, WI please start talking to your local orgs - state and local Democratic parties, grassroots groups, traditional Dem allies - about mounting a campaign targeting the most vulnerable 17 Republican House Members to urge them to vote against whatever joint House-Senate reconciliation bill emerges in the coming weeks. We launched this new effort last Monday, and while we should be urging all our Senators and Reps to vote against these emerging plans, those of you can work these 17 House Rs have a special role to play in this next phase of the battle over the budget. As we discussed yesterday there is a lot of concern in the Republican House about the size of the Medicaid cuts required in the House outlined passed on Tuesday and we need to keep working it people!

Keep Calling Attorneys General In The States - Ask them to protect you and your data, tax returns and privacy, and to keep federally mandated monies flowing to your states and communities. For those in the 19 states that brought the successful Treasury suit thank them and encourage them to keep going. I still believe these 19 states should make criminal referrals of Musk/his posse to DOJ/FBI and raise the stakes.

Protest, Loudly, Trump’s Embrace of Russia and Abandonment of Europe - Let your electeds know you are outraged by traitorous Trump’s selling out of Zelenskyy, abandonment of Europe and embrace of Putin; and that we cannot accept this level of appeasement of someone who is a clear enemy of America and the West, and certainly not an ally. Demand that Trump not let his Saudi meeting w/Putin become our Munich; demand that he not become our Neville Chamberlain.

Paid subscribers should self-report their actions today in our daily chat. So inspired by how hard so many of you are working. I want to make a special plea to all Hopium readers in states with Republican Senators - please make your calls, every day. Even 50 to 100 people calling every day in every red state can make a difference. We have hundreds of Hopium subscribers in every state in the country and it’s critical that we all do our part now.

A note - while physical protests and rallies are a vital part of how we build our new opposition movement, make sure you only attend or promote events by organizations you know and trust. Please do not support any action - boycott, protest, rally, etc - unless you know and trust the organizers. Given the import of our work now I don’t think it wise or advisable to lend our support to newly formed, opaque organizations without a proven track record of working with Democratic groups and leaders.

For those wanting to do more traditional political/campaign work we have four Hopium-backed efforts we're rallying behind right now:

Help Susan Crawford and Ben Wikler in Wisconsin - As a way of honoring our good friend Ben Wikler and supporting this critical April Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, I’m asking our community to donate to the Wisconsin Democratic Party today. The money raised here will make sure Ben has the resources he needs to keep his team in place so they can support this critical statewide race. I know many of you are already deeply involved here - thank you all.

Watch our new discussion with Susan and Ben and thanks to a huge surge of support in recent days we have already raised $91,000, blowing past our $50,000 goal. We are now upping this to a stretch goal of $100,000 by March 31st. Amazing work everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Help Get Ken Martin Off To A Strong Start - In this time of extraordinary challenge we need a strong DNC. Two weeks ago we set a goal of raising $100,000 by March 31st for our new Chair. Incredibly, over 1,000 of you have donated over $91,000 so far. Watch my interview with Ken about what he wants to do with the DNC, and chip in whatever you can to help Ken and the new exciting team at the DNC get off to a strong start. We now have a new stretch goal of $150,000 by March 31st after our very strong start for this effort (note that we did have some money clawed back due to an error in the amount someone gave!)

Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Virginia will be one of the big battlegrounds of the November, 2025 elections and we have a great candidate for Governor, Abigail Spanberger. Watch my interview with Abigail, donate, volunteer, and learn more here. Given how many federal employees live in Virginia, this race is also now on the front lines of the Trump/Musk assault on the federal government. We’ve raised more than $50,000 so far towards our March 31st goal of $100,000 - thank you all. Let’s keep working it for Abigail!

Get Anderson Clayton And The NC Dems Off To A Great Start - Yesterday webegan a campaign to raise $50,000 for Anderson Clayton and the NC Dems. These funds will help the NC Dems get off to a great start in 2025 and help cover the costs of their fight to prevent the Republicans from stealing a Supreme Court seat. We’ve raised $10,800 so far - thank you all!

More Things To Do - Dive into my recent interviews with folks who are making a difference. Check out our upcoming events. Register for my March 5th event with Heather Cox Richardson!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon