More Performance Problems for Trump and MAGA In South Carolina
MAGA is a failed politics. The GOP is broke, and broken.
Happy Sunday friends,
I don’t usually post on Sundays, but another stronger than expected performance by Nikki Haley warranted me weighing in a bit this morning.
In my post this week, Trump Is Not Strong, Or Winning - No Red Waving 2024 Please, I wrote:
Let me say it plainly - Donald Trump is not ahead in the 2024 election. He is not beating Joe Biden. He is not in a strong position. Signs of Trumpian and broader GOP weakness is all out there for folks to see - if they want to see it.
It’s my view that something broke inside the GOP when Dobbs happened. That even for many Republicans, it was just too much, the party had gone too far, had become too ugly and dangerous. And in the elections since Dobbs we’ve had this basic, repeating pattern - Democrats overperform expectations, Republicans struggle. It happened in 2022, and again in 2023, and is now showing up again in early 2024. We flipped that Orlando state house seat last month, and won bigly in NY-3 last week, overperforming public polls by at least 5 points. Biden/DNC has much more money than Trump and the RNC, our party is unified behind the President and polling for our top Senate candidates remains very strong. As I like to say:
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all across the country.
Trump and the GOP on the other hand are showing all sorts of signs of deep, institutional weakness. They had disapointing elections in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023. They are replacing the entire leadership team at the RNC due to their ongoing struggles. The RNC is broke. State parties have atrophied and have crashed in key battleground states. Dozens of party leaders in critical states have been indicted for trying to overturn an election. Trump keeps losing in court, badly, and he and Rudy now owe $700m. Trump is burning through cash at unprecedented rates. Haley outraised him last month. Republican House Members are retiring in droves - abandoning the burning MAGA ship. They could go on.
But what should worry Republicans more than anything else now is how Trump is repeatedly underperforming in actual elections this year, and the polling from these early states keeps finding profound reservations in a large segment of the GOP about supporting him in November. Here’s data guy Adam Carlson last night showing that Trump has now repeatedly underperformed public polling by 7-8 points in these three early states:
Our friend Tom Bonier posted a similar analysis. Axios just dropped a related take, Trump’s demographic problem”. Politico’s Sunday Playbook is called “The warning signs in Trump’s South Carolina romp.” Here’s Fox News’ John Roberts discussing the alarming exit poll finding that 59% of Haley voters in South Carolina last night - 40% of the electorate - would not vote for Trump in the general election. This data is similar to what we saw in the IA/NH entrance/exit polls:
Last week the MAGA GOP candidate in NY-3 underperformed public polls by at least 5 points. Trump is repeatedly underperforming in these early states. This ongoing underperformance is similar to what we’ve seen in elections across the US since Dobbs. As MAGA has grown more outrageous, extreme and dangerous, more becomes possible for us - it’s why I’ve been arguing we need to approach this election through a lens of growth, expansion, taking stuff away from them, get to 55.
Trump is weak, not strong. MAGA is a failed politics. The GOP is broke, and broken, and is the ugliest American political party since the Democratic Party of the 1850s. The American people see this. They’ve been voting against MAGA, and will do so again this November if keep our heads down and keep doing the work.
Why I’m Optimistic About Winning This November - Lots of stuff to chew on this weekend:
Hopium Analysis - America The Prosperous/Biden The Successful, No Red Waving 2024 Please, Why I Am Optimistic About 2024, Coming To Terms With Russia’s Penetration of Trump and The GOP
Hopium Events/Appearances - Our Monthly Hopium Gathering With Special Guest Tom Suozzi, The Strategy Session With Rick Wilson and Joe Trippi, PoliticsGirl, My Appearance On The Ezra Klein Show, My Appearance on Lawrence O’Donnell Thursday
Op-eds/Essays - Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic)
The Most Powerful Democratic Political Machine We’ve Ever Seen - Read my recent post on what we are building together, and let’s just keep staring at this jaw-dropping data from the Suozzi campaign:
In the space of five weeks people knocked on over 150,000 doors, made over 2 million phone calls, and wrote hundreds of thousands of postcards. Our campaign estimates that every Democrat household in the NY-03 received, on average, five handwritten postcards.
March Event Dates - Three events on the books so far in March:
Friday, March 1, 1pm EST - Hopium Founding Members Get Together W/ Simon
Wednesday, March 6, 7pm EST - Hopium Paid Subscriber Monthly Gathering
Wednesday, March 13, 7pm EST - Hopium Community-Wide Gathering
If you are a free subscriber, you can upgrade your membership to join these dedicated gatherings by clicking here.
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. I try to give you a bit of direction about where to channel your work by endorsing campaigns and projects, and providing you information to help you become a more effective information warrior for your democracy. Together we just made a big difference in NY-3, and if you are looking for ways to help right now are three steps I’m recommending:
Donate and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The campaign comms and field operations are gearing up and it’s critical you receive info from the campaign every day, and start thinking about how you are going to be part of this effort as it expands. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.
Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 expansion state. Please consider donating today. For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Democratic Party Chair.
Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 subscribers by March 31st (we are at 43,000 today). With your help we can hit our goal, grow our community and bring the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people.
I will be offering some new recommendations in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Note Axios just dropped a new related analysis - https://www.axios.com/2024/02/25/trump-voter-demographics-problem-election-2024
So true! It's a ridiculous assertion that Trump is strong beyond his die-hard MAGA base. Gavin Newsom forcefully made the case on Meet the Press today: "Trump is weakness masquerading as strength. He's more unhinged than he was even a few years ago. It's extraordinary how quickly he is unraveling. He's a much weaker candidate than he was a few years ago. Democrats are stronger. We're winning: '18, '20, '22, '23...we continue to win and outperform."
He also uses a question about President Biden's age as an opportunity, turning it around to go on offense: "I revere his record. It's because of his age that he's been so successful. It's because of the wisdom and character that's developed over the years that we have the CHIPS and Science Act, Infrastructure Bill, PACT Act, Safer Communities Act. We've seen these bipartisan accomplishments because of his capacity of understanding and leadership. What he's done in three years is a masterclass. Close to 15 million jobs is eight times more than the last three Republican presidents combined. I'm here celebrating the extraordinary accomplishments of the Biden-Harris administration."
Continuing to channel Simon's incredible wisdom, Newsom advised Democrats to "do more and worry less!" Love that Sunday morning dose of Hopium!