New Hopium Series On What Happened And What Comes Next
I'll be in Los Angeles this Friday, 6pm ET at the Grassroots Democrats HQ. Excited to see folks in person!
Good morning everyone. Got a few things for you today:
Exploring What Happened And What Comes Next - After having had a few days to think about how to conduct the what happened/what comes next discussion here, we’ll be taking a two part approach 1) daily notes here as I work to assemble a more comprehensive take 2) 2-3 interviews a week with people in the game to get their thoughts. So far I already have 4 interviews lined up - NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton, political guru Joe Trippi, youth vote expert John Della Volpe and WI Chair Ben Wikler. These interviews with recorded and shared here at Hopium.
Some initial questions we will be exploring in these discussions:
Why didn’t fear and opposition to MAGA drive this election as it did the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections, particularly when MAGA 2024 was far more dangerous, criminal and extreme?
How can Dems tell better stories about themselves, who we are and what we want to do, particularly on the economy and getting ahead/opportunity?
Could we have handled the story telling around the pandemic and inflation differently? Didn’t we fulfill the core Biden-Harris campaign promise which was to get us to the other side of COVID, successfully? Should we have talked about that more? Was it wise to end the election telling voters prices were too high, which was one of the core arguments being made by Trump?
Why did we win down ballot races in the battleground states in 2022 and 2024 but did not win at the Presidential level?
How much of what happened was due to Harris being a bi-racial woman, particularly given that Trump’s central message was the demonization of otherness?
What in the world happened with Latino voters and young people, and what do we do about it?
What’s the future of the fight for reproductive freedom?
Did Republicans cross over to vote Dem, and what happens next with Liz Cheney and the NeverTrumpers? Do they become part of a new Democratic Party, make peace with Trump or stake out some other path?
How do we keep the millions of Americans who left it all out there on the playing field in 2024 engaged and prevent them from losing heart?
Trump had fewer ads and less field than us, and still won. What does this mean?
How can Dems get louder and more effectively counter the right’s information superiority?
How should we be thinking about countering Trump’s agenda and building an effective opposition?
In today’s paid subscriber chat folks should offer ideas on who they would like to hear from in the coming days and other questions we should explore. Please keep sharing articles, discussions and commentary that the broader Hopium community would benefit from connecting with. If you like this approach please invite others you know to join the conversation by becoming a Hopium subscriber, free or paid. The more the merrier!
Votes are still be counting across the US, particularly in CA and PA. Here is Nate Silver’s latest estimate on what the final vote will look like:
Here’s what we know about 2024 right now (I will keep updating this everyday):
2024 was a close election. Trump will win by approx. 1.5 pts, and 0.9 in WI, 1.4 in MI, 2.1 in PA. A shift of 2.1 points in these three states and Harris wins. Not a landslide, not a blowout. The Senate today is at 52-48 (PA is still counting) and the House will be decided by a few seats, either way. While we lost some House seats, we’ve also flipped a few, including 4 in New York State this cycle. While Harris lost in the 7 battleground states, we had important down ballot wins, including AZ/MI/NV/WI Senate and NC Gov. We had other important wins across the US and did win the blue dot again in Nebraska.
There was a 6 point shift in the national popular vote towards Trump from 2020, and Trump is on track to be only the second Republican to win the national popular vote since 1988. While there were bright spots this year, this was a very bad election for our party, our freedoms, our democracy and our future and there is a lot of important work ahead of us.
Update On The Hopium 15 And The Battle For Control Of The House - Here is where our 15 endorsed candidates stand now:
Flips (3) - Gillen NY-4, Riley NY-19, Janelle Bynum OR-5
Too Close To Call/Still Counting - (7) Engel AZ-6, Gray CA-13, Salas CA-22, Whitesides CA-27, Rollins CA-41, Tran CA-45, Bohannan IA-1
Losses (5) - Shah AZ-01, Vargas NE-02, Jones NY-17, Altman NJ-07, Stelson PA-10
What happens in these races in the coming days - the place where we put out money and time - will determine control of the House. I remain very proud of the good we’ve done, together, this cycle. We made deeply strategic investments, and let’s hope that some of them end up giving us the House.
Also want to note the success we’ve had in New York this cycle. We’ve now flipped 4 NY House seats this year - NY-3, NY-4, NY-19 and NY-22. These wins have been another bright spot in a tough year.
Ballot Curing - There are still states where we are working to help people “cure” their ballots. Curing is a process where a mail/dropbox ballot is rejected for a missing signature or other reasons, and we notify people that this has happened and help them “cure” or fix it so their votes count. If you would like to help out in this process you can sign up for DCCC calls into California this week, or a parallel process being run by the DNC. Yes more work to do in the 2024 election!
“Lived Experience” Is A Political Construct, Part xxxx - Yesterday I shared some data showing that people’s understanding of “the economy” is in part a political construct. Here is more evidence:
It’s a reminder that people’s understanding of the economy, even their “lived experience,” is in part a political construct. In my mind there can be no conversation about this election and our path forward without acknowledging the right’s far superior capacity to drive our daily discourse and shape understandings. These conversations must proceed in parallel. Also this:
And this:
Hopium “Thank You, Rest Up and Get Ready” Party in Los Angeles This Friday at 6pm - I am heading out to Los Angeles later this week to speak to a class at USC’s Annenberg School of Communications and Journalism. While there, and as a way to thank the many people who volunteered and donated this year, I’m teaming up with our friends at the Grassroots Democrats HQ to have a formal thank you party Friday at 6pm PT. It will take place at the GDHQ office, 1027 Westwood Boulevard in Los Angeles. All members of the Hopium community are invited so please RSVP today! I am really looking forward to seeing members of this community, and thanking all of you in person.
While we did not have the election we all wanted to have, grassroots Democrats have much to be proud of, and left it all out there on the playing field this year. It will be an honor to be able to thank folks in person for their extraordinary work this cycle (which in California continues this week!).
Tuesday, November 19th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Join me for the next live showing of my big picture presentation on American politics, With Democrats, Things Get Better. It is newly updated with each showing, so even if you caught it earlier this year there will be new data and fresh analysis. Please register here. The arguments in this presentation are foundational to our work here at Hopium, and will be helpful to those wrestling with where we go from here.
Post-Election Pods, Posts and Videos - I got together with Tara McGowan and David Rothkopf on Thursday for one of our Deep State Radio discussions about US politics. This is the first of what will be many discussions I will be participating in about what happened and where we go from here.
A few more things to chew on this week if you haven’t gotten to them yet:
My new video with some initial thoughts on the election, what we did together this cycle and the hard road ahead
My post, On The Urgent Need To Get Louder, and my recent related Closing Strong conversation with Dan Pfeiffer and Tara McGowan
My Friday post on the need for the national Democratic Party to compete more aggressively in all 50 states and not just the 7 battlegrounds
Vice President Kamala Harris’s eloquent concession speech
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
OPPORTUNITIES
JD Vance is leaving the Senate to assume the vice-presidency. Trump has announced his intention to make Representative Elise Stefanik the US Ambassador to the United Nations. That’s likely to be a headache for the House GOP’s very precarious majority, as the seat will be empty for a few months, and it forces a special election in NY-21 this spring.
Democrats have an excellent track record of overperforming in special elections. We need to launch high-intensity efforts to capture whatever House and Senate seats are vacated by Trump’s appointments. Hopefully there will be many!
EDIT: Hopefully, Democrats are already working on recruiting optimal candidates for any and all soon-to-be-vacated seats. And their campaigns should start ASAP.
I hate to confess this. And, Simon, you may take this post down as being contrary to the Hopium mission. But I am one of those who left a lot of it on the field. I contributed more money to campaigns than I could afford. I cared more deeply and passionately than I ever have. And I am left now disheartened and dispirited. I wish I could feel like I want to do more. But I'm too full of despair, and too tired. I won't read the newsletters anymore. I've turned off my beloved MSNBC. My ulcer has been reactivated. I'm just plain down in the dumps, and can't imagine these feelings will soon pass. All that being said, thank you for EVERYTHING. You remain always one of my heroes. I'm 78 years old, and, at this point, signing off.