New Polling Finds Public Turning On ICE, A Bad Inflation Report, Desperate Men Do Desperate Things

Our good friend Anderson Clayton joins us live at 430pm ET, Greg Sargent will be with us tomorrow at Noon

Morning everyone. A reminder that we’ve just released terrific conversations with Rep. Adam Smith, Ranking Member Of The House Armed Services Committee, and Stuart Stuart Stevens of Lincoln Square. Our good friend Anderson Clayton, Chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, joins us live today at 430pm EST, and Greg Sargent of The New Republic will join us live tomorrow at Noon EST to talk about Minnesota, ICE, and the emergence of a lawless Trump-Miller controlled paramilitary police force in America.

You can find links to our previous discussions here, and head here to get the links to join our two Clayton and Sargent discussions or any other upcoming event.

Desperate men do desperate things. The last rash of polls before the end of 2025, ones taken after the limited and incredibly destructive DOJ Epstein files release, found Trump’s job approval dropping again down. Some had him in the mid 30s (brutal), others came in at their lowest level of the year. We ended 2025 with the lowest consumer confidence rating in 65 years in the University of Michigan survey. As we saw in the jobs data on Friday tariffs and other reckless Trump policies have slowed the great American job machine. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. Democrats performed really well in elections of all kinds all across the country in 2025. Putin was refusing to take a reasonable deal and made it clear he wanted all of Ukraine. The Supreme Court told the National Guard to leave America’s cities. The WSJ’s lead story on New Year’s Day was a story detailing Trump’s declining health, raising “fitness to govern” issues. In the Wall Street Journal.

Something needed to be done. STRENGTH, POWER, MANLINESS NEEDED TO BE RESTORED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A foreign dictator was snatched in a daring raid. Trump declared himself the “Acting President of Venezuela” and Emperor of the Americas, High Lord of the Western Hemisphere. Paramilitaries were sent to Minnesota. Plans to take Greenland from Europe were advanced. Iran was warned not to harm protestors (while Trump assaulted them here at home). DOJ moved on that asshole Jerome Powell. DC’s public golf courses were seized. The Kennedy Center occupied.

But then on Wednesday that ICE agent shot that “fucking bitch” in the face at point blank range, on camera, for all to see. The Epstein files disappeared again. On Thursday Congress voted against his majesty five times. A bad jobs report dropped on Friday. Congress is rebelling against the attack on the Fed (bad f-ing move Donald). And today’s inflation report, despite the headline 2.7% annual number, was actually no bueno as the overall inflation rate last month was 3.5% to 4% on an annualized basis; food was over 8% annually; clothing over 7%; shelter about 5%, energy and medical care also came in at 3.5%+. Lower gas prices are helping keep the overall inflation rate down but the other parts people care about - groceries, clothing, housing, utility prices, medical care - are still way above the target 2% range. No wonder Trump launched his attack on Powell last week - inflation is not slowing, and the Fed will be very reluctant to lower interest rates now. Here’s detail from today’s CPI report (shelter which is outside this image is 0.4):

Here’s how the WaPo played the report this morning:

Inflation remained elevated in December, closing out a year of stubbornly high prices that have become a political liability for President Donald Trump

New government figures this morning show that prices rose by 0.3 percent between November and December, in line with September’s reading of 0.3 percent. Overall, prices were 2.7 percent higher than they were a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Although inflation has inched down in the past year — from a 3 percent rate in January when Trump took office — it hasn’t been enough to assuage Americans, who say it’s becoming tougher to afford everyday basics. New tariffs and immigration policies have played a role in keeping inflation stubbornly higher than policymakers would like…..

……..

Prices for necessities ticked up broadly in December. Food costs were particularly elevated — rising 0.7 percent from the month before, more than double the rate of overall inflation. Gas utility costs spiked by 4.4 percent. There were also outsize gains in housing, transportation, medical care and clothing. Used car prices, however, fell by 1.1 percent from a month earlier, and gas prices were down 0.5 percent.

The pattern we’ve seen since early June when Trump’s approval started really dropping is Trump struggles and then tries to re-establish his dominance through spectacular strongman plays - the invasion of cities, the bombing of Iran and other countries, the party-line big ugly bill, the threatening to cut off food assistance during the shutdown - which the country immediately rejects. This strongman plays may work for a narrow part of his base, but a majority of the country want an American President not a tyrant, and this tactic he uses to make himself feel STRONG and MIGHTY keeps failing again and again.

So we had a few Trumpian spectaculars last week to kick off 2026 - the seizing of Venezuela, the move on Greenland, and the assault on Minnesota - and now we are starting to get polling showing once again the public not going along. As we discussed yesterday three polls released in recent days had Trump’s approval dropping 3 to 7 points from their last poll, suggesting this isn’t working. But I want to drill down now on the two YouGov polls released in the last 24 hours that have a great deal of data about these new strongman moves - and it is all bad for Trump (again).

In today’s Economist/YouGov poll we get this remarkable data:

• Should the US run Venezuela - 15% yes, 61% no

• Should the US take Venezuelan oil - 13% yes, 64% no

• Support for taking Greenland by force - 8% yes, 68% no

• Was ICE shooting justified - 30% yes, 50% no

• Support for abolishing ICE - 46% yes, 43% no (39%-33% w/indies)

YouGov released a stand alone poll yesterday without a partner that went deep into the killing of Renee Nicole Good and the DHS/ICE terror regime. It is remarkable how much the country has turned on ICE, and how much running room Dems now have to contest/condemn these lawless, authoritarian tactics:

More:

From all this data it’s pretty clear that despite their enormous propaganda machine and Trump’s daily dominance of our discourse they have already lost the big arguments about Venezuela, Greenland, and ICE badly, and Democrats should be emboldened to lean in here and fight. For once again the proud patriots of these United States elected a President, not a dictator, and we have seen again, and again, that there is little support in the country for these strongman tactics.

Yes, this morning we are waking to this you have to be kidding me sight:

Let’s close today by thanking all the brave Minnesotans out on the streets challenging the lawless regime. Your courage is inspiring beyond words. For your fight is our fight too, and you keep inspiring us with your courage, patriotism and fight……

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms - Support Our Candidates

• Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $68,400 raised, $250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10)

• Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $12,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!

• Winning Ohio - $10,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does an overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $66k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversations with Gov. Cooper and NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $111k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps, Winning In Red States and Red Places (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $271,000 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties

This recent post recapped our our very productive year together in 2025. In three new essays (here, here, here) I discuss how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up, be loud, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land.

The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.

Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, Defend Our Democracy - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:

1. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his current efforts to force Ukraine to surrender

2. Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean and the Pacific - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law, and the US must withdraw from Venezuela and cease other threats to violate the UN Charter and the sovereignty of other nations

3. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world. To put America on a sounder fiscal course due to the enormous deficits brought by Trump’s 2025 tax cuts we should reverse these cuts to the wealthy and corporations

4. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the dangerous occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented regime corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress end the rancid cover up of the Epstein crimes.

5. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA, Medicaid and our clean energy investments; support and co-sponsor the Stand Up For Science/Rep. Haley Stevens effort to remove Robert Kennedy from HHS.

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - This July 4th America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard everyone, and I remain so incredibly proud to be in this righteous fight with all of you - Simon