NYT Has Biden Up 2 (47-45), The Economy Is Strong, Crime is Dropping Across US, MAGA Cowards Run Away
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Happy Tuesday all. A few things today:
On Friday I dropped a new analysis I hope everyone here at Hopium reads in the coming days. It reviews IMHO the three most important story lines in US politics as we head into 2024:
The most important electoral data out there right now isn’t noisy and unreliable polls, it’s our ongoing overperformance in elections of all kinds across the US since Dobbs. 2022 taught us centering our understanding of US politics solely on polls is a risky affair - more need to learn that lesson
The economy is ending 2023 on a remarkably strong note, giving Biden a very sturdy foundation for his re-election next year
Trump’s Olympian levels of baggage and escalating extremism are being overly discounted in the 2024 chatter. The country has rejected MAGA in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023, and is unlikely to vote for the most extreme and dangerous version of MAGA Trump is now
I talk about these three story lines in my new year-end video briefing 2023 Was A Very Good Year for Democrats. Let’s Make 2024 Even Better, and in this terrific new Vanity Fair podcast and article, A Dem Strategist Calls B******t on Biden Polling Doom. Enjoy all.
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Biden Up 2, 47%-45%, in NYT/Siena Poll. 8 Recent Polls Show Biden With Leads - Hopefully this new NYT poll with Biden up 47%-45% with likely voters ends talk of Trump with a 2024 advantage or Dems in some kind of structural collapse with any voter group (this section has been updated and expanded since publication).
For clarification, the NYT poll in early November of six battleground states had Trump up 4 with registered voters, and 3 with likely voters. This new poll has Trump up 2 with registered voters, and Biden up 2 with likely voters. So while this is not apples to apples as it is battleground compared to national data, this new poll is a good one for Joe Biden however you look at it. Traditionally likely voter results are given more weight than results with registered voters, and thus it can no longer be said that Trump leads in NYT polling or polling more broadly as we explore below.
It’s also a good way to end another year of really crappy polling, and far too much attention to polling over all (the main lesson of the red waver that never came). As I’ve been writing here for some time, I think the election right now is close and competitive, within margin of error, essentially tied. For while there are polls showing Trump leading Biden, there are now 8 recent polls showing Biden ahead, and 4 more showing him tied (via 538):
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
39-37 YouGov
37-35 Leger
Reuters has Biden +4 in the battleground Presidential states
45-45 Clarity
41-41 Cygnal
43-43 Economist/YouGov 12/9
43-43 Morning Consult 12/2
Additionally, Democrats have gained 3 pts in 538’s Congressional Generic since early October, perhaps more if you strip out the fantastical Republican polls. Navigator’s battleground tracker found gains and meaningful leads for Dems in the House battlegrounds. Most polls show the GOP brand far more unfavorable than the Democratic brand. And as we discussed a few weeks ago, the most recent large sample polls of Hispanics and young people find Biden holding or even improving upon his 2020 results with these two critical parts of our coalition.
So deep breath all. More independent polls have Biden tied or ahead than behind, something that has been obscured by a few high profile media polls and a slew of Republican-funded polls showing Trump ahead. To repeat - I am fine with where we are now. 11 months before the election, no real Biden campaign, no primary - of course some of our coalition is wandering. And yes we have work to do to get them back, but remember - when it counts we keep winning elections and outperforming expectations all across the US; the strong economy is creating a very sturdy foundation for Biden’s re-election; MAGA has lost 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023, and with superMAGA Trump leading them in 2024 is likely to lose again.
Yes we have work to do to make 2024 the election we want it to be, but in every way possible, at this moment, I would much rather be us than them. We are not in trouble my friends - we are just not yet where we want to be.
Crime Rates Dropping Across the US - From NBC News:
Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data……
The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961, according to criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers.
Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.”
……The FBI’s quarterly numbers cover about 78% of the U.S. population and don’t give as full a picture as the more comprehensive annual report the FBI puts out once a year. But Asher said the quarterly reports in the past have hewed fairly close to the annual ones.
The most recent annual report, released in October, covered 94% of the country and found that violent crime in 2022 fell back to pre-pandemic levels, with murder dropping 6.1%.
Asher maintains a separate database of murder in big cities which found that murder is down 12.7 percent this year, after rising during the pandemic.
Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966, Asher found, while Baltimore and St Louis are on track to post the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade. A few cities, including Memphis and Washington DC, are still seeing increases in their murder rates, but they are outliers.
More good news as we head into 2024.
Strong Economy = Strong Foundation for Biden’s Re-Election - the economic yea-in-review assessments are starting to come in, and they are going to put pressure on the media to recast the Biden Presidency in a far more positive light. Here’s an example from the Washington Post’s top economic reporter, Jeff Stein (and here’s his story)
New White House Memo, “The Biden Harris Agenda Delivered Meaningful Progress for Hardworking Americans in 2023” - White House Communications Director released an important memo yesterday recapping the progress the nation has made in 2023. It’s full of good stuff for all the info warriors out there. Here is how it begins:
When President Biden and Vice President Harris took the oath of office on January 20, 2021, America faced historic challenges including a once-in-a-century pandemic, an economy gripped by the most severe downturn since the Great Depression, and the painful aftermath of the January 6th insurrection. The prior administration was the first since President Hoover to exit office with fewer jobs than when they came in.
From Day One, President Biden and Vice President Harris moved swiftly to tackle these challenges head-on. Over the three years since, he has amassed one of the most impactful legislative records in generations, fought to grow our economy by rebuilding the economy from the bottom up and middle out, and delivered the strongest recovery in the developed world. That’s resulted in the creation of over 14 million jobs, the revival of America’s infrastructure and a manufacturing renaissance, and meaningful wage gains for workers. Inflation has come down two thirds since last summer and consumer confidence is on the rise. The President also understands there is more work to do to lower costs for hard-working Americans: that’s why he passed legislation to lower prescription drug and energy costs, is working to eliminate hidden junk fees that banks, airlines, and other companies charge to rip off consumers, and is taking on corporate price gouging.
Meanwhile, extreme Congressional Republicans show each day that they don’t have a plan to lower costs for families. Their only plan is trillions of dollars of tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations, saddling taxpayers with more debt. They want to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act try to block this Administration from lowering the costs of insulin and prescription drugs and undo the progress we’re making on clean energy. They’re still trying to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. And Congressional Republicans attack freedoms like the right to choose, right to vote, and right to love who you love and be who you are — an ideology out of step with most Americans that treasure their individual liberties.
In A Time Of Enormous Challenge, Cowardly Republicans Run Away - In Saturday’s Hopium post I did a deep dive on how how the wheels of justice have been begun to really turn on the Republicans, and yes, their ongoing betrayal of the country. If you haven’t read this post, please do. It has data and arguments we will be coming back to frequently in the battles ahead. I also talked about the GOP as a “party of Putin” on MSNBC this past Sunday.
As I sit here today, a veteran of more than 3 decades in Washington, I want to report to all of you that I am just shocked at what we are seeing right now from the Republican Party. In a time of war and crisis in Europe and the Middle East, when America needed to stand tall, Republicans have literally run away. Consider what we are about to end the year without:
muched need military support for our allies, Ukraine and Israel. It’s an uimaginable gift to Putin, Iran, Hamas, Hizbollah and the Houtis and others seeking to weaken the US and the West
a fiscal 2024 budget. We are already 3 months into the 2024 budget, and the entire federal government is being forced to operate on budgets drawn up 18 months ago. It’s an incredible abdication of responsiblity. This struggle to get a budget could derail all the economic progress we’ve made this year
a border and immigration package, deemed so essential by Republicans, in part because the changes they seek are so radical and would never pass without taking military aid to our allies hostage
confirmation of 43 senior diplomats, necessary in a time of rising global conflict
other legislation and authorizations of programs critical to the national security of the United States
We are witnessing an unprecedented level of Congressional dysfunction, cowardice and sabotage in Washington today. It is very dangerous for America - there is no way to sugarcoat this. In this clip Rachel Maddow does a very good job establishing broader context for what we are witnessing. It is well worth watching. We are up against something truly terrible now.
Keep working hard all - we have a lot of work to do - Simon
I’ve been trying to take everything in from a more holistic, “30,000 foot view“ lately… It’s part of why I haven’t commented in a couple of weeks. I’ve been trying to process all the information together over a period of time rather than getting caught up in the minutia of any one day.
My conclusion is:
For the hard data to be as good as it is, and the perception of the voters to be as bad as it is, it’s incredible that the Republican’s polling is as bad as it is (the attention is always on how dire Biden’s polling is, while conveniently forgetting to mention that Republicans have failed at every turn at every level to capitalize on it because they remain equally or more unpopular), and even more incredible how well Democrats have been performing in elections with the weakness of Biden’s polling.
The fact that we’re still in a tie-game at a time where more is being done to destroy people’s confidence, sense of stability, and general satisfaction with their public institutions than anytime since possibly the mid 19th century, and certainly since at least the late 1920s is a moral victory that we should not underestimate. I’m not a professional, political operative like Simon, but I’ve been paying attention to politics and how the public responds to macro events pretty carefully for 25 years, and there’s no way the public doesn’t have an improved perception of this kind of economic data over the next 3 to 6 months.
The indicators are simply too good, and the lag time for people truly starting to feel it should be no later than the spring or the summer. For Trump to already be near his ceiling of support in the polling is a catastrophic problem for the Republicans… We have 10 or 15 points worth of potential support to tap into, and not only the most demonstrably awful opponent to run against in American history, but with truly an amazing backdrop of accomplishments and conditions to help us make our positive case.
We have work to do, and none of us should feel complacent about it… But if we do it, I think we’re going to kick the shit out of these guys next year. If things change and 270 is all we can muster, I’ll take it… But we are going to have much more room to grapple with than they are. If we tap into all the good news that we honestly have to report, and do the effective job necessary of reminding people just who Trump is and what a bunch of dangerous, pathetic, and cowardly sycophants the entire Republican Party has become for him, it shouldn’t surprise us if we put Texas in Florida to play in addition to winning all of the battle grounds from last time and North Carolina. Let’s all pledge to do some work every month of 2024 and go out there and kick their asses guys… We can do it!
Polls are fodder for News Entertainment. I stopped believing polls in 2016. Reading the polls has a deer in the headlights effect on the public. How about instead of polls for clickbait these papers lead with facts instead of sounding like something similar to a rape apologist for justifying the actions of predatory politicians.