Oil Tops $111 A Barrel, US Gas Prices Surge, Russia Is Failing In Ukraine, Senate And House Rs Are Fighting - Holy Trumpian Sh-tshow Batman!

Great new ad from Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin in Georgia - let's help them win on May 19th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Morning all. Let’s cut through the noise - the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran has rejected Trump’s delusional demands, there is no road to “peace” in the Middle East that doesn’t involve humiliation for Trump, oil and gas prices are surging today…..

Brent crude is back over $111 a barrel, just below its wartime high:

Gas prices in the US have surged in recent days to their highest level of the war:

And this is what the pathetic, Epstein desperate dude-who-has-totally-lost-it-in-chief posted this morning to try to calm the global markets. It’s laugh-out-loud ridiculous, a further humiliation of the United States on the global stage, and of course crude prices rose since he spit this out this morning:

David Ignatius has an encouraging report from Ukraine in today’s Washington Post, one that highlights another emerging grand strategic failure for Trump - for just as he is losing the war in Iran, he and Putin are losing the war in Ukraine:

KYIV — Strange as it sounds, it’s uplifting to visit Ukraine these days. This is a place where the good guys are winning — or at least holding their own. And they’re surviving with help from a stalwart Europe rather than a retreating United States.

At the Kyiv Security Forum here last week, European defense leaders voiced solidarity with Ukraine in a war against Russia that they now see as a common fight. “We should be in awe, admiration, and gratitude for what Ukraine is doing,” Adm. Tony Radakin, Britain’s former chief of defense, told the gathering.

And there was a palpable anger here at President Donald Trump, who European leaders see as pulling away from NATO at the very moment when Europe most needs American help. “The United States is not an ally anymore,” warned Nicolas Tenzer, a prominent French defense analyst. That’s an extreme view, but it reflects a common consternation that Trump has broken the trust that sustained the transatlantic alliance.

The deep concerns I’ve heard in past wartime visits here have eased. Ukrainian troops held firm against Russia’s ferocious assault on the front lines last fall, and its cities survived a terrible, frigid winter despite a Russian blitz on energy infrastructure. Now spring has arrived: It’s warm again, and the power is still on. Ukraine has taken Russia’s heavy punch without buckling.

“We are definitely not losing,” affirmed Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the former head of military intelligence who is now the top aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, in remarks to the forum. That’s about as upbeat as the taciturn Budanov ever gets. But European defense chiefs gathered here seemed to share the assessment that, as one put it, “the Ukrainians have outpaced Russia in spite of being outgunned.”

A year ago, I wondered whether European nations would be willing or able to take over from the U.S. as Ukraine’s protector. The desire is now clearly there, although the capability lags. During the conference, a representative of the European Union announced approval of a new 90 billion euro loan (about $106 billion) for Ukraine. Gen. Sean Clancy, the chair of the E.U. Military Committee, promised: “Europe will continue supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

On March 27th the US Senate unanimously passed a bill to fund the parts of DHS other than ICE and CBP. Speaker Johnson signed on to the strategy a few days later. On April 30th temporary funding for DHS runs out. Johnson has still not passed the Senate bill through the House, and in the last few hours Johnson announced he is crafting a new bill to fund DHS, rejecting the Senate bill he has already endorsed. Insidery DC pubs are full of stories like this today. It’s an unbelievable shitshow on the Hill right now:

Here’s the lead story on the NYT website this morning:

Some excerpts from the story:

President Trump’s approval ratings are down. Gas prices are up. Congressional Republicans are heading to the exits in record numbers. And Democratic enthusiasm is cresting.

With a little more than six months until the midterm elections, anxious Republicans are confronting a foreboding political climate that party leaders fear could lead to a wipeout in the fall if it does not improve.

The House is now favored to fall into Democratic hands while control of the Senate — not so long ago seen as a G.O.P. bulwark — is increasingly up for grabs as Democratic candidates up and down the ballot build substantial war chests.

In private, Republican political strategists are grimly trading synonyms to describe the darkening environment: sour, ugly, bad, bleak. They note that much can change before November, holding out hope that the days of $4 gas and the war in Iran pass before the election.

“If the election were in May, Republicans would lose,” said Newt Gingrich, the Republican former House speaker, who urged his party’s leaders to “get reality a little better — and get communications a hell of a lot better” to salvage their majorities this fall.

“The war, the sense of affordability and gasoline — some of that has to be cleared up in order to win,” Mr. Gingrich said. “If it doesn’t change, I’ll start tearing my hair out.”

……..

Some of Mr. Trump’s allies are quietly exasperated at the president’s lack of focus, according to interviews with more than a half-dozen Republican strategists who spoke anonymously to discuss private conversations. Even events specifically designed to sell politically popular policies have been overshadowed by unhelpful and unnecessary fights.

Exhibit A was his public relations gambit earlier this month to highlight the “no tax on tips” provision in last year’s tax bill, when a DoorDash courier delivered a McDonald’s order to Mr. Trump outside the Oval Office. But Mr. Trump stepped on his own staged event by talking about his ongoing feud with the pope.

Mike Murphy, a longtime Republican strategist, described the climate as a moment of “panic” for the G.O.P., joking about a “spike in liquor sales to Republicans” who are seeking to numb the political pain.

Why it’s possible the events over the weekend give Trump a little bump the first poll out with interviews from over the weekend, this morning’s Economist/YouGov, showed Trump losing ground from last week, and near the lowest point in this poll this 2nd Trump term:

Note this remarkable data from the poll, something we are now seeing in other polls too - Dems are now consistently leading on the economy:

Let’s wrap today with the wonderful first ad from Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin in Georgia:

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Rallying For Jordan and Rankin For Georgia Supreme Court - This is our next big opportunity to make good trouble all. The Election is May 19th, early voting has begun, and we have 2 great candidates, Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who have a serious shot at flipping two GOP-held Supreme Court seats. Watch our new interview with Jordan and Rankin, donate to their campaign, and volunteer no matter where you are! In just one day we’ve already raised $6,000 towards our $50,000 goal!

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $621,500 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews. Interviews with Jonathan Nez and Elaine Luria coming soon!

If you are looking for inspiration watch a few of these interviews - I promise these great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November! For it is simple - if we win these twelve races the House flips. Period.

James Talarico For Texas - $62,800 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $86,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Winning Ohio - $128,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde

This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $536,500 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $107,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $170,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Remember you can find all of our interviews with our inspiring 2026 candidates under the Podcast tab on the main Hopium site and on our channels on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify too.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; and learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year.

Here’s our working Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and elections to win, together! - Simon