Our 2026 Candidates Are Impressive, New National and CA Polls, The AI Wars Have Begun

Let's close strong in Virginia today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Morning all. Got a grab bag of things for you today……

Spend Time With Our Impressive 2026 Candidates - I’ve done a lot of interviews of our top 2026 candidates in recent weeks and my overall impression is very, very positive. I’ve been talking to candidates running for higher office each cycle for over 30 years. So I’ve seen all kinds. I strongly encourage you to watch the interviews I’ve released in recent weeks. They will do 2 things: 1) give you a sense of where the election is now, from people on the front lines, working to flip red states and districts blue 2) leave you encouraged that we have strong candidates and strong arguments to make this year. These interviews have helped me better visualize our path to victory this November, and I think they will for you too.

One thing that has come across in many of these interviews is that people in farm country are hurting due to Trump’s policies - the tariffs, failed war, health care cuts - and there are voters open to hearing from us now who have been tough for us to reach in previous cycles. It is an opportunity our party must understand, and seize, together.

Links to our candidate interviews can be found below, or on our YouTube channel. Expect more interviews with those on the front lines in the coming weeks. The general election has for all intents and purposes begun, and we need to make helping our battleground candidates and state parties job number one…..

Paul Krugman - “The Vindication Of Bidenomics: Are we finally ready to acknowledge its successes?” - On his Substack the great master dives into a subject that will be familiar to Biden-Harris era Hopium readers. Strongly recommend to all members of our community.

New Dem Party Poll In California - The CA Dem Party released a new post-Swalwell tracking poll yesterday. Here are the results:

• 17% Steve Hilton (R) - Trump Endorsed

• 14% Chad Bianco (R)

• 14% Xavier Becerra (D)

• 14% Tom Steyer (D)

• 11% Katie Porter (D)

• 4% Matt Mahan (D)

• 3% Antonio Villaraigosa (D)

• 1% - Betty Yee (dropped out), Tony Thurmond, Eric Swalwell

A few notes. Things are volatile right now in the race, so expect the polls to be a little jumpy these next few weeks. As Trump has endorsed Hilton, Bianco is probably at his ceiling, meaning that soon Becerra, Steyer, or Porter will almost certainly jump ahead of him as Democrats check in and consolidate around the frontrunners. For example, if we just allocate that bottom 6% of the vote from Yee, Thurmond, Swalwell, and Villaraigosa evenly among the three top Dems both Steyer and Becerra move into second place, ahead of Bianco.

To be clear anything can happen here, but the likely scenario is continued consolidation around the top Dems as we get closer to the election and people check in. Meaning that it has always been unlikely - not impossible, but unlikely - for these two Republicans to finish at the top, particularly now that Trump has endorsed Hilton, making it likely that he consolidates what’s left of the undecided GOP vote.

The top 6 candidates will gather for a debate tomorrow night at 7pm PT. Here’s how you can watch.

New Strength In Numbers Poll Has Trump Falling to 35% Approval - Here’s G. Elliott Morris’s summary of his new tracking poll:

……..President Donald Trump has now been in office for about 15 months, and his numbers keep getting worse. Our latest Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, conducted April 10–14, finds just 35% of U.S. adults approving of his job performance, with 61% disapproving — a net approval rating of -26. That’s a new low in our poll, down from -23 last month and a steep fall from (an already poor) -16 when we first began tracking this question in May 2025.

This deterioration has been driven largely by his handling of the economy and prices. Trump’s net approval on prices and inflation has fallen to -46 — the worst rating on any single issue in the history of our poll, and a stunning 6-point drop from March’s already record-low -40. Nearly three-quarters of Americans (72%) now disapprove of the way Trump is handling prices.

Here are the poll’s headline findings:

Headline poll findings

• Job approval: 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s job performance; 61% disapprove (net -26, down from -23 in March)

• Generic ballot: Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 43% among registered voters, a 7-point margin

• Direction of the country: 55% say things are going poorly and major changes are needed, a new high. Just 8% say things are going well

• Prices: Trump’s net approval on prices/inflation has fallen to -46, the worst rating on any issue we have ever recorded

• Border security: The one bright-ish spot — border security bounced back to net +1, making it once again the only issue where Trump is not underwater

• Iran: 64% of Americans say the war in Iran has not been worth the cost, up from 58% in March. 48% say the U.S. should never have gone to war in the first place

Here are some of his charts:

Stunning repudiation of the core Trump argument about his failed war:

Sturdy Dem generic ballot lead:

All in all encouraging stuff.

Tariff Rebates Begin This Week - From The Guardian:

The Trump administration has begun accepting applications from businesses seeking refunds for more than $166bn in tariffs, months after the supreme court ruled that the president had no legal authority to impose them.

The administration launched on Monday the digital claims system, named Cape, which they said in court filings could handle about 63% of affected import filings, with the remainder to follow.

Writing for the majority in February, Chief Justice John Roberts said the 1977 emergency statute Trump had invoked provided no such sweeping authority to implement the tariffs. Two of the president’s own appointees, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, joined the majority. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh were the dissenters.

In court filings, customs officials acknowledged they had to construct an entirely new processing infrastructure essentially from scratch, including grappling with the fact that they initially had no mechanism to deposit money directly into most importers’ accounts.

More than 3,000 companies have reportedly already sued the administration to secure their refunds, with some filing their cases even before the supreme court had issued its verdict – an indication of how confident the business community had become in the legal merits. Among the most high-profile plaintiffs are Skechers, Revlon, Toyota, Nintendo of America, FedEx and Costco.

The only companies legally eligible to claim are those that officially paid the tariffs – predominantly importers and large corporations. The broader population who absorbed the cost through higher prices on everything from electronics to clothing has no direct recourse. Whether ordinary Americans see any benefit depends entirely on the businesses that stand to collect.

FedEx has said it will pass refunds back to the customers it shipped goods for, since it was those customers who footed the bill for the tariffs in the first place. Costco has suggested it could lower prices if it gets money back, but some shoppers are already suing the retailer, unconvinced that a vague promise of cheaper goods is good enough.

Businesses can expect to wait 60 to 90 days from submitting the paperwork to Customs and Border Protection to the money landing in their account.

In a healthy democracy a leader who illegally, unconstitutionally, outrageously, levied $166b in new taxes on his country, an act which slowed the economy, drove up prices on everything, and keep interest rates high, and which both the House and Senate voted to repeal, would have warranted their immediate removal or the government to fall. Particularly as within days of losing the case in the Supreme Court, the corrupt, addled, vainglorious leader defiantly did it all over again, and implemented a new and different set of illegal, unconstitutional, outrageous, and destructive tariffs.

These tariffs continue to be the greatest abuse of Presidential power in our history; or they were, until the President launched his failed Iran war, which was also illegal, unconstitutional, outrageous, destructive, impulsive and ill-considered.

Rather than the government falling, or the leader being removed, over these extraordinary, illegal and world-altering abuses of his power, here in this dark age of Trump and historic GOP complicity it is just another Tuesday.

The AI Wars Have Begun - A few days ago the NYT published a must read/watch article that provides a powerful window into how AI is going to be used in the 2026 election. This one is a must read, for it also features the active video of the fake AI generated influencers that need to be seen to understand what is going to come at us this year (gift link).

This is an issue we will be coming back frequently here. For more on the evolving battlefield of the 2026 election see this new page I’ve put together which you can always find under the “Evolving Battlefield” tab on the main Hopium site.

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Virginia votes today! Watch our new interview with Virginia Speaker Don Scott, one of the main architects of the ballot initiative; volunteer for the final push with the main campaign; a huge thank you to everyone who has come our phonebanks co-hosted with Network NOVA and Rural Groundgame; and thank you to everyone who has already voted and has been working so hard to get this done!

Let’s close strong everyone and win this thing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $588,300 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | You can meet and get to know these House flipping candidates by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews with each.

So far we’ve sat down with Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) and should rounding out the rest in the coming weeks. If you are looking for inspiration this weekend watch a few of these interviews - I promise they great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November!

James Talarico For Texas - $60,300 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $85,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Winning Ohio - $123,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue, and watch my new discussion with our good friend David Pepper, now our candidate for Lt. Gov in Ohio. This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $106,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $168,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $525,300 raised, $750,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election. Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda, and bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.

And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon