Our Corrupt And Failed Leader Is Losing His Control Over Congress, Kagan On Trump Surrendering To Iran, The DNC's Report

Republicans are coming to realize Trump is doing more to defeat them than to help them win

Morning all. It’s been one of most common themes of my commentary since he returned that there were limits to what Congressional Republicans and those Rs running in 2026 would tolerate from Trump. We wouldn’t know that those limits were until we hit them. The first big no way Donnie moment was the vote to release the Epstein files, which was one of the most significant rebukes of an American President in our history. Then came the de-escalation from the siege of Minneapolis - the firing of Noem and Bovino, the downgrading of Miller, the installation of a Senator into DHS to calm everything down, the carving out of ICE/CBP from the rest of DHS funding. We then got both chambers to roll back the tariffs and even his docile Roberts Court ruled against him, invalidating the tariffs (a decision he has in essence ignored). Europe forced him to back down from his ridiculous efforts to seize Greenland. Some of the fanatics at HHS have been cleared out, and Bobby Jr has gotten repeatedly roughed up by Senate Republicans in hearings.

Despite his assertion in those heady days after his mob boss snatching of Maduro and getting a cut of Venezuela’s oil that the only limits to his power was “his own mind” Donnie had starting to bang, uncomfortably, into limits. Then he launched his ridiculous war and boy oh boy has Little Donnie learned there are in fact significant limits to his power, both abroad and at home. Iran is more powerful today than before the war. His poll numbers have plummeted. Gas prices have soared, as has inflation. Consumer confidence is the worst in 65 years. Democrats keep overperforming and winning in elections of all kinds all across the country. And perhaps most importantly, despite Rs having a very favorable 2026 map, the Senate could now very well flip, as Democratic candidates have lead in recent polls in Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas.

The same dynamic that drove Biden out of the race two years ago - a rebellion of those running in that year’s election - could kick in with Trump, despite the bluster, Fox News, and the tech bros. For self-preservation is a very, very powerful force in politics, more powerful even than fealty to the off-with-their heads leader. Like he did in Iran, in Minneapolis, in Greenland, with the Epstein files, in these past few weeks Trump overplayed his hand. In attempting to restore his waning control over his party after his humiliating whooping in Beijing he appeared to be more interested in beating 2026 Republicans than helping them win; and his Olympian, out control, unprecedented corruption and abuse of power, enabled by his new fluffer Todd Blanche, just became too much, even for the most servile Congress in American history.

And so there is now an open breach in the Capital city. Desperate 2026 candidates, many others wronged by our vengeful leader, and even a few acting from principle, have started banding together to challenge Donnie boy. After 7 failed attempts this the Senate advanced a war powers resolution this week that would rein in his failed war. Last night Mike Johnson had to pull a House version of the war powers act for it would have passed, and will likely pass when Congress returns in 10 days. In early June the House will vote on, and likely pass, the Ukraine Support Act, giving aid to Ukraine and sanctioning Russia. So Trump is on track for consequential and deserved rebukes of his approach to both the Iran and Ukrainian wars. In recent days Senate Republicans said no to $1b for his vainglorious ballroom; no to firing the parliamentarian who ruled against the mad king; no to his new corrupt slush fund. Quisling Blanche spent two hours with Senators yesterday making the case for his ballroom and it went very, very poorly. So the Senate went on break last night without having gotten Trump his funding for ICE/CBP. It’s a Congressional version of “fuck off” from Thune to the White House.

And the press in DC has looked like this:

and this:

and this:

And this:

In my strategy talk this week I argue that as bad as things are for Trump and the Republicans right now - and they are bad - they are likely to get far worse:

Trump And Trumpism Are Failing, And We Must Grow More Ambitious Now

Hence the breach, the rebellion, the loosening of Donnie’s grip on Congress. Republicans have in Hopium language grown too weary of defending the indefensible. The bubble has burst. The damn has broken. What happens next is impossible to know but Trump the regime should be very worried for this open intra-party warfare makes it far more likely we win this November, and more likely that when we get back into power prominent Rs look the other way when the subpoenas start flying.

Look at what Trumpworld was spinning on Tuesday. “Wins” just like those wins in Iran, China, and beating up of Zelenskyy in the Oval…imaginary wins, cheap wins, arrogant in your face Leader Thune wins, adolescent wins, not understanding how the game is really played “wins,” “wins” as seen by an addled, desperate, and terrified old man deeply aware of his ebbing powers….

Kagan on Trump’s Surrender In Iran - One of the ways things are going to get worse for Trump and the Rs is that soon it will become impossible to deny that Trump has lost in Iran, has committed arguably the biggest mistake by an American President in our history, and left America in a far, far weaker position in the world. That he is, simply, an historic failure.

Here’s Robert Kagan in a new Atlantic article, Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender:

The outlines of President Trump’s endgame in the Iran war are now emerging. In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis. Trump may launch another limited strike to look tough and satisfy the demands of the war’s supporters, but it would be a performative gesture. Endgame in this case is a euphemism for “surrender.”

……..

Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat. The financial markets may stabilize if it is clear that oil will eventually start flowing again through a reopened strait, even if under the new Iran-controlled system. A major strategic setback for the United States need not affect Wall Street. The president may also hope that he can change the subject by launching another military operation, this time against the government in Cuba. And the news media have indeed begun writing more about Cuba than about the unfolding disaster in Iran.

……..

According to one U.S. official, Netanyahu’s “hair was on fire” after the call with Trump—for good reason. The Iran war may end up as the single most devastating blow to Israel’s security in its brief history. On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. It will exercise leverage with dozens of the richest nations in the world, all of which will have an acute interest in keeping Iran happy. They will be unlikely to take Israel’s side in any conflict that it has with Tehran or with its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, because Iran will have the means to punish them if they do. Israel will emerge more isolated than it has been at any time in its history—and not least from its only reliable protector, the United States. When Trump turns his back on Israel, as he must do to implement this policy, MAGA will gladly follow. The bipartisan anti-Israel consensus in the United States will grow and harden

The DNC’s Report - I intend to read it over the long holiday weekend and comment on it next week. I encourage everyone to read DNC Chair Ken Martin’s statement, A Message from DNC Chair Ken Martin on the DNC’s 2024 After Action Report, which includes a link to the report (which I have not yet seen). What follows are the Chair’s main takeaways from this report and other research and discussions we’ve all been having since our disappointing loss in 2024. Much of this will be familiar to members of this community as we’ve been working alongside and hearing from Ken Martin’s DNC, Jane Kleeb and the State Chairs, and the many state Democratic Party chairs - from Anderson Clayton to Eric Croft - who we’ve backed and partnered with these last few years:

• We can’t just be anti-Trump, we must have an affirmative agenda to sell the American people. In the wake of the 2024 election, we have seen Democrats run and win on a positive message around affordability, centering on kitchen table issues and the needs of working families. It’s resonating.

• We can’t stop campaigning at the end of an election cycle, we have to always be “on.” Our Republican counterparts are running campaigns 365 days a year, and we can’t let them define us for voters before we get a chance to define ourselves.

• Campaign ads are not a substitute for the deep relationship building we need to do with voters to win elections. This is especially true with voters who have felt ignored, left out, or left behind. We should invest in organizing early and connecting with our communities before we need their votes. To do this, we’ll need to ask our donors to chip in a little bit earlier, as well.

• We can no longer take our voters for granted. Communities that have been considered “mobilization” targets, like young voters, need to be treated like “persuasion” targets.

• While we are laser-focused on winning the elections ahead of us in November, we also have to keep our eyes trained on the long-game – how we win 5, 10, and 30 years down the line. That’s where the party comes in. We can’t expect to win if we don’t show up. We have to invest in building infrastructure and restoring credibility with communities that feel we have abandoned them.

• Part of the long-game is thinking local: fostering a strong bench of talent, racking up wins in state legislatures, and running candidates in every race all across the country. These local wins matter, and they also ladder up to national wins. We need to compete in each of the 3,143 counties.

• We must reinvest in a 50-state strategy and leave no state, region, or community behind. There are no permanent red, purple, or blue states. If we write off red states, then we’ve accepted defeat before we’ve even attempted to compete.

• Our party has to meaningfully commit to partisan voter registration if we want to expand our base and grow durable Democratic support.

• We have to retain and train top talent. A party cannot execute a permanent campaign with a seasonal workforce that burns out and churns out.

• The modern information ecosystem is fragmented and personalized. We need to speak authentically to voters in a way that recognizes that audiences consume content differently across communities, and tailor our strategy accordingly. Voter outreach requires competent multi-platform communication.

• The Democratic Party is a big tent with a lot of players. That’s a good thing. But we have to better coordinate with one another to strategize, streamline, and de-duplicate ahead of the next presidential cycle. When margins of victory are narrow, everything matters and we must ensure no task or tactic is left undone.

• The Democratic brand is in trouble and needs repair. When Democratic policies win through ballot measures, even in areas where our candidates are losing, we know that there’s an opening for us to connect with new voters. We have to restore confidence in our party and show we can really deliver on our campaign promises to the American people.

Now, my friends, when they go low we go big, and……

Go Out And Win This Frigging Election!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We’ve begun a campaign to pass HR 2913 - The Ukraine Support Act - through the House and then work to get something similar through the Senate. Learn more here, and please call your House Rep every day until it passes. This one really matters people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $709,200 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here.

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $3,400 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund this week, one targeting candidate who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is

• Bob Brooks (PA-07)

• Johnny Garcia (TX-35)

• Bob Harvie (PA-01)

• Denise Powell (NE-02)

• Bobby Pulido (TX-15)

More on this exciting new initiative in the coming days……

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $95,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $72,900 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Winning Ohio - $147,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, our candidate for Governor Dr. Amy Acton, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde

This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $570,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $113,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $177,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learm more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and these great candidates to elect, together! - Simon