Morning everyone. Our proud and patriotic paid subscribers gathered last night, and as I do in these Wednesday night get togethers I tried to take a step back from the day to day and offer my broad assessment of where we are in our fight against MAGA and for freedom and democracy, here and everywhere. A video recording and rough transcript can be found above.
I focused on three main topics last night:
Anyone who thinks Trump is winning is not paying attention
The 6 big shocks that have and continue to hit Trump and the GOP
We need to keep expanding our coalition and our maps, restore our ambition and take more away from them, and leave the era of overly restrictive targeting behind…
Let’s get to it……
Anyone Who Thinks Trump Is Winning Is Not Paying Attention
I began by recapping yesterday’s post:
where I make two main points:
1 - Trump’s taking out of sitting Senators and House Members has weakened his grip over Congressional Republicans, and they are starting to distance themselves from a deeply unpopular Trump and his failed Presidency. Bills to rein in the war and support Ukraine will be coming to votes soon - extraordinary potential rebukes of him. In recent days Senate Rs have said no to the SAVE Act, no to the ballroom, no to firing the Senate parliamentarian, no to the slush fund. Trump may have sold these interventions as wins but they have done much to undermine his power in Washington - a very dangerous development for such a venal, corrupt and potentially very vulnerable leader.
2 - At a strategy level creating a tighter connection between the GOP’s battleground candidates and a wildly unpopular Trump is a disaster, as it was in 2018 and 2022.
The 6 Shocks That Are Weakening Trump’s Brand, And Why Things Are Likely To Get Worse For Trump
In the video I argue there are five shocks that are weakening Trump. This morning as I began writing I realize there are six.
First came the tariffs and higher prices, downward pressure on farmers and small businesses, a slower economy. Next came the big ugly, and direct cuts to health care and food assistance, with tax cuts for him and his buddies. Next came Epstein (a new one in my formulation), then the siege of Minneapolis and the killing of Americans on the street. Then the war, and now what I call an emerging new “corruption” shock.
Trump had the worst week of polling of his 2nd term this week. Most major polls now find him in the mid to high 30s, and his disapproval in the high 50s to low 60s. The country has rejected the war, and it has driven him to new lows in approval. This morning we got our first poll of Trump at 31%:
But what changed these last few weeks is that we are starting to see his plummeting approval translate into real danger for Rs in the election itself. We’ve had Senate polls showing Dems ahead in Senate races in Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, Texas - results that if they hold means the Senate flips. We’ve now had polls showing Collins down 5 and 8 points to Platner - a place that is usually place of no return for a sitting Senator. And we’ve started seeing polls showing Democrats with enormous leads in the generic ballot. The NYT and Quinnipiac had it +11 D this week, and there have now been 6 polls showing Dems with double digit generic ballot leads in recent weeks. Here is what the GOP political ecosystem is seeing today on their main data site, Real Clear Politics. Look at the steep downward trajectory for the Rs -
We just need to be very clear about what this all means. A 7 point Dem generic ballot lead is equal to where we were on Election Day in 2018 in what was a blow out election for us, and things almost always get worse for the incumbent party as we get closer to the election. Two of these six shocks are almost certainly going to get worse for Trump - the corruption shock (given what’s happened in the past few weeks) and the gutting of domestic and global health care, humanitarian aid, and food assistance. While these stories detail the rising global threat, every day we get closer to election the dramatic domestic cuts to the ACA, Medicaid, SNAP are going to be more acutely felt and become more dangerous for Republicans.
So as bad as things are for the Rs right now - and they are bad - they could get much worse for them in the coming months. It is clearly a year of opportunity for the pro-democracy movement in the US.
Expanding Our Coalition, Expanding Our Maps, Restoring Ambition and Rejecting Overly Restrictive Targeting, Investing And Competing Everywhere
This part of my talk builds on these recent posts:
Democrats Are Expanding Our Maps And Competing In Hard To Win Places (New Video & Written Analysis)
Due to time retrains this morning I won’t be able to give this the full treatment but essentially it has become clear that we need a far more expansive understanding of how to gain power and keep it if we are to truly defeat MAGA in the years to come. We left too many states, communities, places and tactics behind, including partisan voter registration and long term strategies to gain control of state legislatures and state Supreme Courts to counter their illicit gerrymandering in this new post-Callais world.
The imperative of learning once again how to compete and win in red places and red states and take back power from MAGA has been at the core of our work here at Hopium since we launched in March of 2023. It is what drove the creation of our Audacious Expansion Fund and our candidate work over the last two cycles.. It is what drove my original “expand our coalition” memo, Get to 55, in 2023. It is what is going to drive all of our work in the days, weeks, and months ahead. For we need more; we need to grow; we need to restore ambition and overcome what had become a reckless narrowing of our understanding of how to win elections and gain power.
That’s what we talked about last night. Enjoy the discussion, share it with others, hit like so more will see it, and now………
Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We’ve begun a campaign to pass HR 2913 - The Ukraine Support Act - through the House and then work to get something similar through the Senate. Learn more here, and please call your House Rep every day until it passes. This one really matters people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $707,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here.
Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $1,800 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund this week, one targeting candidate who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is
Bob Brooks (PA-07)
Johnny Garcia (TX-35)
Bob Harvie (PA-01)
Denise Powell (NE-02)
Bobby Pulido (TX-15)
More on this exciting new initiative in the coming days……
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $95,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
James Talarico For Texas - $72,800 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Winning Ohio - $147,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, our candidate for Governor Dr. Amy Acton, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde
This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $568,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years
Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $113,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue
Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $177,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learm more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff
Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and these great candidates to elect, together! - Simon
