The Monthly Jobs Report - Slower But Steady Growth, 49m Dem Jobs Since 1989

Under Biden best job market since 1960s, lowest uninsured rate ever

Happy Friday all. Got the monthly jobs report this morning. It came in at 175,000 new jobs, a bit lower than recent months. Here’s how the Washington Post is writing about the report and the economy today:

Employers added 175,000 jobs in April, signaling slower but steady growth in the labor market, which continues to bolster the broader U.S. economy.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday.

That marks the 27th consecutive month that the unemployment rate was below 4 percent. This was previously recorded during a low-unemployment period between 1967 to 1970 and the longest period on record between 1951 to 1953.

“The labor market right now is in a very sweet spot,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “Employers are unwilling to let go of workers due to persistently strong aggregate demand.”

After a miniboom in the labor market in the first quarter of 2024, April’s job growth indicates a cooler period, with the smallest jobs gain reported in half a year. Average hourly wage growth cooled in April to $34.75, which is up 3.9 percent from the previous year. Wages have consistently beat inflation since last May after years of falling behind…..

Economists say employers had been expecting lower interest rates later this year, which can spur economic growth, so they have been making anticipatory hires in areas of the labor market that retracted notably after the coronavirus pandemic, such as tech, transportation and financial services.

But the overall strength of the labor market combined with hotter-than-expected inflation this year has changed the Federal Reserve’s calculus for lowering interest rates at a 23-year high since last July. The central bank announced earlier this week that it would leave interest rates unchanged for now, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell declaring at a news conference that “further progress in bringing [inflation] down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain.”

Earlier this week I wrote about how the election was changing now, and would continue to evolve and change over the next six months. The Fed raised interest rates to slow the economy. The economy has slowed but remains remarkably resilient and robust. Inflation remains a bit too high so the Fed isn’t lowering interest rates, as many hoped and expected. So here we are now, in what feels like an in-between economic place, as we head towards November. Data we get in coming weeks will be important to understanding the economy’s course for the remainder of the year.

Our Monthly Jobs Tracker, 49m Dem Jobs - Let’s get to our monthly Hopium deep dive on the jobs and economic data. We start with our jobs tracker:

• 33.8m jobs = 16 years Clinton, Obama

• 15.4m jobs = 39 months of Biden

• 1.9m jobs = 16 years of Bush, Bush, Trump

Biden's 15.4m jobs are 8 times as many jobs as were created in the 16 years of the last 3 Republican Presidencies, combined.  Since 1989 and the end of the Cold War, the US has seen 51 million new jobs created. 49 million of those 51 million jobs - 96% - have been created under Democratic Presidents. Just 2 million jobs - 4% - have been created under Republicans. There has been one and only one American political party good at this capitalism thing and it sure isn’t the party of Trump.

The ongoing failure of Republican policies to create growth and opportunity for American workers is perhaps best seen in the following graph. Over the past 3 Republican Presidents the economy has created 10,000 jobs a month. The rate of job creation under Biden has been 40 times what it was under the those last 3 GOP Presidents. To repeat - Republicans created just 10,000 jobs a month over 16 years, the same number of jobs which have been created in 5 months under Biden. It’s shocking statistic.

What this data tells us is that since this new age of globalization began in 1989, a modern and forward-looking Democratic Party has repeatedly seen strong economic growth on its watch.  Republican Presidents, on the other hand, have overseen three consecutive recessions - the last two, severe. The contrast in performance here is very stark. It is not a stretch to state that the GOP’s economic track record over the past 30+ years has been among the worst in the history of the United States.

Despite enormous challenges - COVID, insurrection, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global inflation, repeated OPEC price hikes, war in the Middle East - the performance of the American economy over Biden’s Presidency has been remarkable. GDP growth has been over 3% for 3 years now, our recovery from COVID has been the strongest in the G7, the stock market has set records this year, wage growth remains very strong and outpacing inflation, inflation is lower here than in any other G7 nation, and we have the lowest uninsured rate in history. Things were hard in recent years, but they are much better now. We are getting there, together, and all this gives Joe Biden a very strong case for re-election.

Let’s drill down on Biden’s economic record a bit:

• Best economic recovery from COVID in the G7, WSJ calls the US economy right now “the envy of the world.”

• GDP growth has averaged over 3% in Biden’s Presidency, 3 times higher than Trump averaged per year

• Lowest unemployment rate in peacetime economy since WWII, jobs more plentiful today than any time since the 1960s. 8 times as many Biden jobs in 36 months as last 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years. Overwhelming majority of Americans have never experienced a job market this robust and strong

• Inflation has fallen, dramatically, and prices of many goods, including many food items, continue to fall. Inflation is lower here today than any G7 nation

• Very elevated wage gains, new business starts and prime-age worker participation rate. 1.3 job openings per unemployed person - an amazing stat

• Lowest uninsured rate in history, ACA signups this past year highest ever

• The annual deficit is trillions of dollars lower today than it was when Trump was in the White House

• Median wealth up 37% from 2020-2022; median wealth for 18-34 year olds in this period more than doubled

• The Biden Administration has erased more than $130b in student debt

• Home ownership rates for Gen Z were above both Millennials and Gen X at this point in their lives

• Many cities and states have raised the minimum wage in recent years, creating a much higher income floor for young and low-wage workers

• Domestic oil production set records in 2023, and we are setting records with renewable energy production too. America is more energy independent than it has been in decades

• Biden’s ambitious investment agenda will create growth, innovation, opportunities for American workers for decades to come, and is already dramatically accelerating our energy transition from carbon-based fuels

As this topic comes up a lot in our discussions, I want to focus a bit on homeownership rates for Gen Z. Here’s a recent report from Redfin:

While the homeownership rate for adult Gen Zers has stagnated, a majority of them are still outpacing young people of the past.

The homeownership rates for 19-to-25-year-old Gen Zers are higher than the homeownership rates were for millennials and Gen Xers when they were the same age. For example, the rate for 24-year-old Gen Zers is 27.8%, compared with 24.5% for millennials when they were 24 and 23.5% of Gen Xers when they were 24.

This is likely because many Gen Z homeowners bought during the pandemic, when mortgage rates hit a record low. When many millennials were in their early twenties, many were struggling to find work due to the Great Recession, which made it harder to afford a home. And when Gen Xers were in their early twenties, they were grappling with some of the highest mortgage rates in history; for example, rates were around 11% in 1989, when the oldest Gen Xers were 24.

The bottom line on this data is that Democratic policies have repeatedly been able to make globalization work for the American people in this new and challenging age.  GOP policies have repeatedly failed to deliver, as a national party Republicans have repeatedly failed to do their part. 

It is a core belief here that the current radicalization of the GOP is intimately linked to its repeated failure to handle the challenges of the post-Cold War era.  The rigid ideological approach of the modern GOP has left it unable to govern in a time of rapid change; and those repeated failures have left many Republicans angry, reactionary and willing to do the unthinkable to stay in or regain power.  The modern GOP has no answers for many of the most important challenges America faces today, and rather than modernizing, and adapting, as all institutions must in a time of change, the GOP has decided to fight the future by trying to rig the system to remain in power while the country and its people drift from their narrow grasp. 

This argument – about the success Democrats have achieved through modernization, and the failures of the GOP for their refusal to do so – is at the very core of my most important presentation, With Democrats, Things Get Better.  I just recorded a new version with fresh data and insights. You can find it here.

Finally, I believe our overarching message priority this year is to win the big economic argument with Trump and get into positive territory on the economy. I talk about why this is so important in a short take video. Given this strong track record going all the back to 1989 we shouldn’t be losing the economic debate to these guys. One of our most important info goals this year to work work together to establish this basic contrast:

Dems = growth, lower deficits, progress for workers and families

Rs = recession, higher deficits, American decline

As I recently posted here, the conversation about the economy in the US remains very red wavy - it is full of false right-wing narratives that are distorting our understanding of what’s happening here in our own country. The bottom line is that our economy is historically strong. Joe Biden has been a very good President. The country is much better off today. And there is a great deal of data to suggest that Americans are not as down on the economy and Biden as conventional wisdom holds. Look at this recent data from the key battlegrounds. People there understand how much better things are for them where they live. We should be able to connect this understanding to Joe Biden’s Presidency in the coming months, particularly with the help of Dem govs and leaders in these states.

I am proud of our country, our President and our Party. We need to be very loud in the coming months about all the good we’ve done. Our ability to win in November may very well depend on how successful we are in fighting this economic red wave and helping Americans come to a better understanding of how successful we and America have been, together.

Keep working hard everyone. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon