Trump And Putin Are Not Winning Their Wars

Today 1pm ET - Going live with the great Stuart Stevens - Join us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Morning all. Yes, we wake to another day of Trumpian bluffs and bullshit about his failed war in the Middle East; another day of Iran refusing to bend the knee; another day of Brent crude over $110 a barrel; another day of gas and diesel prices surging and hitting war time highs; another day of our ridiculous leader looking pathetic, addled and weak to the American people and the world.

Last night in a post that confirms how desperate he has become Trump called for the invalidating of ALL THE PRIMARY ELECTIONS that have taken place this year in order to give him and Republicans more Congressional seats:

Meanwhile, Putin has dramatically scaled back the biggest event of the year, his “Victory Day” parade on May 9th in Moscow. Here is how one Ukrainian commentator wrote about it on Bluesky this morning:

Here’s the full text of his thread:

The May 9 parade in Moscow is still a few days away, yet Putin is already a laughingstock -including within Russia itself - & the 2026 parade has already turned into a symbol of failure for Russia:

• Air defense systems pulled in from across the country;

• No heavy equipment or aviation on display;

• Internet outages in Moscow lasting several days;

• Unprecedented security measures;

• The absence of high-profile guests.

All of this points to fear - and a regime in its final throes. Putin may try to provoke Ukraine into striking Red Square during the parade.

He could also stage such a strike himself and use it as a pretext to legitimize a retaliatory attack on Ukraine. Putin is cornered. The war has reached a stalemate, and the situation in Russia is deteriorating by the day. A cornered rat is the most dangerous.

The Atlantic Council has released this new analysis:

With its success on the battlefield and Orban’s loss in Hungary Ukraine has renewed momentum in Europe. A close Orban-Russia ally, Slovak leader Robert Fico, just publicly backed two important Ukrainian positions - EU accession, and no imposition of a peace deal without Ukraine’s consent:

Here is Zelenskyy today at a major European summit talking about the need for Europe to use this momentum to push Putin towards diplomacy rather than war. It is worth listening to the entirety of this short clip:

In his terrific newsletter today historian Phillips O’Brien published a related essay, Taking The “Initiative” In War Might Not Be What You Have Been Told. Some excerpts:

If you look at war winning strategies over history, in many cases taking the initiative had nothing to do with going on the offensive. It actually involves trying to shape the direction of action in such a way that the enemy is put in a position where it must accept your victory. In that way, it could be argued that initiative is offensive neutral. In some cases, some of the most famous in strategic history (and I will mention just two below but there are many others) taking the initiative involved going on the defensive intelligently and forcing the other side to take the offensive dangerously….

……..

We need a more well-rounded understanding of taking the initiative in war, one not grounded on the German/USA shared understanding of the 20th and 21st centuries, which was far too offensive and based on the idea if you can militarily impose yourself on an enemy that you will win. That is often a figment of the imagination and based on a misreading of war. A power can take the initiative by avoiding the offensive, by forcing the other side to fight exhausting offensives, and by protecting and building up resources in the meantime.

This is why I believe it can be argued that Ukraine has taken the initiative by not attacking and by letting the Russians bleed themselves out on the offensive. This is the strategy of Fabius and the NVA. It does not win battles, but it can win wars.

This analysis may also help explain what is happening between Iran and the US right now. For it sure does seem like Iran has the “initiative” right now, and not the US. For bleeding the US may not “win battles, but it can win wars.”

Here’s what bleeding Trump looks like:

Dr. Phillips will be joining us Wednesday at 2pm ET live to go deeper into all this. Look for a link in tomorrow’s Hopium post.

Today join me at 1pm ET for my monthly get together with the great Stuart Stevens. Click here to join us live and a recording of our talk will be shared via email this afternoon. Remember you can find all of our interviews and podcasts on the Hopium site under the Podcast tab and on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify too.

And now, my friends, it is that time……

Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Rallying For Jordan and Rankin For Georgia Supreme Court - This is our next big opportunity to make good trouble all. The Election is May 19th, early voting has begun, and we have 2 great candidates, Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who have a serious shot at flipping two GOP-held Supreme Court seats. Watch our new interview with Jordan and Rankin, donate to their campaign, and volunteer no matter where you are! In just one day we’ve already raised $23,900 towards our $50,000 goal!

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $635,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews. Interviews with Jonathan Nez and Elaine Luria coming soon!

If you are looking for inspiration watch a few of these interviews - I promise these great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November! For it is simple - if we win these twelve races the House flips. Period.

James Talarico For Texas - $65,000 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $88,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Winning Ohio - $133,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde

This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $549,900 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $109,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $172,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; and learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year.

Here’s our working Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and elections to win, together! - Simon