Trump Is Pushing America And The World Into A Dangerous Global Crisis

Our madman leader is doing extraordinary damage to the world, and this war must end. Now.

Greetings everyone. For weeks now we’ve been reviewing the economic data here almost every day, alarmed about where the US economy was heading. Prior to the war we now know the economy had slowed dramatically - GDP growth in the 4th quarter was only 0.7 percent and we’ve seen job loss in 5 of the 10 months since Trump implemented his illegal tariffs. All three main inflation gauges have been running far above the Fed’s target rate and two - PCE, PPI - have show inflation picking up steam in recent months. Here’s that scary PPI data we got this week:

Trump’s enormous tax cuts had already put our our pre-war economy in a far weaker fiscal condition. This next chart does not include revised projections of what the war is likely to bring - slower growth (less revenue), higher interest rates (if inflation spikes) - which make all this much worse. It’s my assumption that the tariffs will eventually disappear so we are really at the top, red line, pre-war:

Then Trump launched his ridiculous, illegal war, and threw the US and the world into a global economic crisis - energy shock, commodity shocks, fertilizer shortages and price spikes, damage to energy production throughout the Middle East, 2nd and 3rd order effects - all together are undermining the economies and stability of the world. Here’s my working chart (with assistance from Claude) on the total cost of the war. Right now Trump’s war is on track to cost the world almost as much as the global financial crisis in 2008-2010, and that’s with very generous projections on a rapid ending of the war.

My main point today is that once something like this begins we have no idea where it will go, particularly as we have an unstable madman at the helm of the US who cares little for the economies or people of the world and who we cannot count on to even understand what is happening - let alone create a clear path for recovery once the war ends. For he has created this crisis through his tariffs, his tax cuts, his mass deportation policies, and his war - and recovery here in the US will require him to walk away from all that.

Because this was a sudden and unexpected shock, and because many thought it would end quickly, global markets and our domestic discourse I think have been slow to come to terms with the gravity of what is happening now. In the last few days I think that has begun to change.

Let’s review some headlines and stories:

Here’s an excerpt from that letter to Trump:

“Now is the time to ensure that American agriculture can weather this period of extraordinary strain. Without timely assistance, continued losses risk accelerating farm closures, reducing domestic production capacity and weakening the ability of farmers and ranchers across this great nation to provide food, clothes and fuel for the American people.”

Yesterday the state of Georgia suspended collecting of their gas tax to lower the price of gas and diesel. While good for consumers in the short term this is going to weaken the fiscal position of the state in a time when a slower economy is already putting tremendous pressure on the budgets of non-petro governments throughout America and the world. Many states are likely to follow.

The CEO of United Airlines, Scott Kirby, sent an extraordinary letter to the United community yesterday about the threat the war has become to the company. Some excerpts:

The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks. If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B.

That may sound scary, but the first piece of good news is that, for now at least, demand remains the strongest we’ve ever seen. The 10 biggest booked revenue weeks in our history have been the last 10 weeks.

But it may be a challenge to continue passing through much of the increased fuel price if oil stays higher for longer.

Here are some steps we’re taking in both the short term and the long term:

• Plan for fuel being higher for longer - our plans assume oil goes to $175/barrel and doesn’t get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027. Honestly, I think there’s a good chance it won’t be that bad, but as you’ll read below, there isn’t much downside for us to preparing for that outcome.

• Be smart and nimbly manage our schedule - In the short term, that means tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices. So, we are canceling about 3 points of flying in off peak periods (think redeyes, Tues/Wed/Sat flying) during Q2 and Q3 and we’ll pull a point of capacity in ORD when the FAA process concludes. We’ve pulled TLV and DXB service, which represents about another 1 point of capacity. That’s about 5 points of this year’s planned capacity in the short term, and our current plan is to restore the full schedule this fall.

Translation = much higher fares, curtailed service, significant danger to the integrity of the company, higher inflation, slower US economy, end the fucking war Mr. Trump.

A key gauge used by Wall Street traders started pricing in inflation to surge to over 5% in the US this year yesterday. It’s just the beginning of a broad re-assessment of our economy by the Street and by business and political leaders:

Some analysts yesterday speculated that an inflation surge like this will cause the Fed to raise interest rates, not lower them this year - further slowing the economy and making a recession far more likely; and further driving up our deficit as debt service costs will increase.

While Trump has been a crisis for America since his first day back in office, he has now become a crisis for the entire world, and every single person in it. It’s why Democrats simply must move to something that feels far more like a war footing, and be fighting every day to end the war, and then pass an agenda that makes a successful recovery from this disaster far more likely. We’ve offered a first draft of that agenda below. We need to be very, very loud this week everyone. The war must end, and starting the slow, difficult recovery process is what we need to be focusing on now.

Friday Notes - Gas Prices Keep Rising, Trump Escalates, Rep. Smith A No On More War Funding

The War Must End Now

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $337,400 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing later this month.

James Talarico For Texas - $32,700 raised, $100,000 March 31st goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Watch my recent interview with Rep. Talarico

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $52,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. | Watch my new interview with Mary Peltola

Winning Ohio - $81,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue!

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $89,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $144,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $420,800 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Sign Up For No Kings on March 28th

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; sign up for a No Kings event and watch my new interview with Indivisible’s Ezra Levin, a driving force behind No Kings.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions

• Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia

• Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs

• Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding

• Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People

• Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation

• End the War on Science, Health and Public Health

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, rescind the tariffs, and on blocking the “SAVE Act.”

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon