Trump's Disastrous New War Spirals Out Of Control

Prices shocks from Trump's new war have begun battering an American economy and American consumers already battered by his reckless policies

Morning all. It’s become pretty clear that Trump believed the Iranian regime would yield, quickly. He has persistently talked about the Venezuelan model - decapitation, cooperative regime, steal the oil, immense self-enrichment, affirmation of him as God Emperor. Easy peasy. Chop-chop. For it’s clear very little planning or thought went into what would happen if the Iranian regime fought back, the war dragged on, and global oil, gas, fertilizer, and chemical products that come from the region just stopped coming. The arrogance of the God Emperor, and his Crusader Defense Secretary, to believe that if they bellowed, and bombed, all would be good comes despite our long failed history in the region, universal warnings from scholars and experts, and Trump’s own intelligence agency warning that a heavy bombing campaign would not be sufficient for the Iranian regime to fall.

Here’s new reporting from the Washington Post, Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime (gift link):

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.

The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.

The prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as “unlikely,” said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a classified report.

So here we are. And we now entering a very dangerous place.

First, the price shocks to the US and global economy are going to be significant. Here’s gas prices today - up 50 cents in just the last few days.

Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan wrote this on Twitter today:

National average price of gasoline creeping higher at $3.469/gal this morning, up 52.8c/gal from a week ago while diesel has hit $4.583/gal, up 84.3c/gal from a week ago. Americans today will spend nearly $200 million more on gasoline than just 7 days ago.

Perspective: The national average gas price from Jan 2021–Jan 2025 was $3.461/gal on average. Today it’s $3.469/gal. Not apples-to-apples (four years vs. one day), but helpful context beyond the peak seen in 2022.

Prices for food and goods transported domestically or internationally are going to rise now, everywhere in the world, due to this new Gulf War. Airline travel is going to get much more expensive too.

Here’s The Washington Post’s home page right now:

All of these prices shocks will come to an American economy where growth had already significantly slowed, where jobs were already being lost, where inflation was already rising again, and where our fiscal condition has already deteriorated due to Trump’s reckless tax cuts and the eventual ending of his illegal tariffs. These new prices shocks are going to make all these trends worse, dramatically weakening our country and wrecking havoc on the economic lives of the American people.

So, of course, given all this, there is tremendous pressure on Trump to end the war. Ending the war can come in two forms. Declaring victory, and heading home. Or dramatic escalation, further pain, to get the regime to yield. Trump has chosen the latter - dramatic escalation. In the last 24 hours the US-Israeli campaign has begun attacking the energy infrastructure in Iran - as Putin has done in Ukraine - endangering the health of tens of millions of Iranians.

Here’s a report from a CNN correspondent from Tehran a few hours ago:

Here is a new report from CNN, just released a few minutes ago:

Iran of course has responded to this escalation by launching attacks against US and Gulf state targets throughout the region. Here’s the Iranian Foreign Minister:

For reference here is a map of the region so you get a sense of how vulnerable the Gulf states are, and our bases too:

As we discussed on Friday, I think it is imperative that Democrats attempt to speak with one loud voice now about this increasingly dangerous moment. Here’s the near term agenda I think Democrats should adopt for all future negotiations with the Trump regime and their Republican allies:

Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia - Russia is helping Iran attack America, Ukraine is coming to defend us. There can be no more corrupt and dangerous Trumpian appeasement of Putin, particularly as the tide may be turning against Russia in Ukraine.

Democrats should revive the bi-partisan Russian sanctions bill in the Senate, and introduce an aid package for Ukraine to re-direct our focus to the war that is far more geopolitically important to America than our new Gulf War.

Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions - Put America back on the side of rule of law and democracy, here and everywhere, and end this illegal, and unnecessary, war that is now threatening the global and US economies.

Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs - To help ease rising inflation Trump must be forced to roll back his new, illegal and destructive tariffs. The Dem AGs have already filed a new law suit. We should be forcing votes once again in Congress and fight this reckless policy.

Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding - With the $2.4t in tariff revenue Trump was planning on getting from his tariffs (over 10 years) eventually disappearing, and our fiscal condition in the US worsening, we cannot afford the Trump tax cuts and extra ICE funding. Both policies, at the core of the big ugly bill, should be reversed.

Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People - This war is a reminder that committing America to the transition from fossil fuels to cheaper, safer, cleaner renewable energy is not just an economic and climate necessity it is a geopolitical one too. Paul Krugman has a terrific piece on this today well worth your time.

Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation - cannot let up on this for one moment.

Our addled, reckless and desperate leader has thrown the world into extraordinary chaos, and things in the Gulf region have already spiraled out of control. We need to keep the pressure on to end this ridiculous war; fight with everything we got for a “better day” agenda; and keep working to support our candidates and party committees to ensure we prevail in the November elections. We need to be very, very loud this week everyone.

Related Discussions and Posts, The Week Ahead

This past week:

• We had informative and timely discussions about Trump’s new war with Rep. Adam Smith and Stuart Stevens

• We reviewed our encouraging election night with North Carolina’s Anderson Clayton, Texas’s Kendall Scudder, and Jen Rubin & Norm Eisen

• I weighed in with my weekly talk, The Idiocy Is Strong With Trump, and a new comprehensive look at the week, A Disastrous Jobs Report, Russia Is Helping Iran Attack The US, The War Is Spinning Out Of Control - America Needs A Course Correction, Now.

• We celebrated Hopium Third Anniversary - thank you all! Our Anniversary Sale - 10% off an annual paid Hopium subscription - continues until midnight tonight.

Looking ahead we have some great events and discussions coming up this week. We will be hearing from three of our endorsed candidates - Peg Cognetti, Jo Mendoza and Mary Peltola; Indivisible’s Ezra Levin is coming to preview the next big No Kings day coming up on Saturday, March 28th; and I am sure we will have commentators come discuss Trump’s dangerous new war too.

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $293,200 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing later this month.

James Talarico For Texas - $25,300 raised, $100,000 March 31st goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Watch my recent interview with Rep. Talarico

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $43,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. Amazing start everyone!

Winning Ohio - $68,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who provides a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year. Note a generous donor has sent $21,000 worth of Hopium-infused contributions directly to the candidates which are not included in our on-line goal tracker.

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $83,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $137,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $396,100 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Study The Spangerberger And Padilla Speeches

Two more ways you can go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; and bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in both the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home.

Keep working hard all. We are entering a dangerous place, and we need to be very, very loud now - Simon