Trump's Terrible Polling Gets Worse, National Battleground Deteriorates Further For GOP - 2026 Has Become A Year Of Opportunity For Democrats

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm ET, Founding Members Friday at 1pm

Good morning everyone. We had a really good night last night, and Trump and MAGA had a really ugly one. Through a hard fought campaign we likely picked up four seats in our effort to flip the House, a remarkable achievement. It was also further humiliation for the addled, ailing, and failing Trump and his impulsive, ill-considered mid-decade redistricting gambit that has wildly backfired on him and the GOP.

There is a lot to discuss today. First, I cannot express to you how much it feels like Trump and his Congressional allies are melting down right now. Just look at the news coverage - the disgraced FBI Director yelling at reporters, Tucker Carlson apologizing for supporting Trump, the Labor Secretary resigning due to a really nasty scandal, Nancy Mace attempting to oust her Cory Mills from the House, utter legislative chaos and infighting in both chambers, Trump’s unending whining about his gilded ballroom, and then there is the failed war - gargantuan, historic, shocking levels of buffoonery, idiocy, incompetence and now desperation too.

Over the last few weeks I’ve been making two related arguments: 1) that Trump no longer had a face-saving way out of his failed war, and that he, America and the world were about to enter a dark and dangerous period 2) as bad as things were for the Republicans politically and electorally, they were going to get worse.

Well, things have gotten worse for the Rs these last few weeks, a whole lot worse. We’ve gotten a rash of really bad economic data showing inflation spiking, the economy slowing, and consumer sentiment plummeting. Here’s the latest GDP nowcast from the Atlanta Fed. Q1 GDP growth was running over 3% before the war began. Now it is hovering around 1%.

In the last two days Trump has seen the worst polling of his second term. Look at this data!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• 36%-62% (-26) Ipsos-Reuters

• 35%-61% (-25) Strength in Numbers

• 33%-67% (-34) AP-NORC

• 32%-65% (-33) ARG

Look at this data from the AP-NORC poll. Staggering levels of rejection and repudiation on things that really matter:

In his tracking poll this month G. Elliott Morris tested impeachment. Yes, we are already at Nixon level numbers:

A fifth of Republican voters want Trump impeached:

In recent weeks we’ve seen polls putting Democrats ahead in Senate races in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio, enough to give the Democrats the Senate. We had not seen us ahead in Iowa. Until yesterday that is, and this data from Echelon, a Republican pollster:

Echelon also released this encouraging data from Georgia:

And Maine:

I cannot stress to you enough how extraordinary it is that we are now seeing strong leads for our Senate candidates in Georgia and North Carolina, and that we will be in competitive seven month long campaigns in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and potentially Florida and Texas too. These are places the national Democratic Party just have not been competitive in for some time. Here’s a reminder of Trump’s 2024 margins in these states:

Look at how long it has been since we’ve won either a Gubernatorial or Senate race in these states:

Friends, this is why we’ve been pouring money into the state parties in these five states. For there isn’t the kind of electoral infrastructure, or recent history of winning, that exists in places like Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. We’ve talked a lot here about how to gain back power we would have to learn again how to win in red places and red states. Well, here we go. This is the map. These are the targets. We need to win in these red states - again.

In 2024 the Presidential battleground was:

• AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI (and NE-02)

In 2026, incredibly, the battleground may end up being:

• AK, FL, IA, ME, OH, TX and GA, NC (and yes, perhaps MI, NH too)

It’s exciting folks. It’s a year of opportunity for us, a year to do something historic and extraordinary - together.

And yes, that means that it is now time to…..

Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Excited to talk about all this with our paid subscribers tonight at 7pm ET. Register here. Going to be a fun one!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $595,300 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews. Interviews with Jonathan Nez and Elaine Luria coming soon!

If you are looking for inspiration watch a few of these interviews - I promise these great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November! For it is simple - if we win these twelve races the House flips. Period.

James Talarico For Texas - $60,300 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $85,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Winning Ohio - $124,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with Ohio Lt. Gov candiate David Pepper and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde

This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $525,800 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $106,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $168,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda, and bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.

And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon