Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Virginia Briefing Tonight 7pm ET, Dems Just Keep Winning Elections Across US
Lots of Events This Month/Welcome New Subscribers!
As we are dragged into a few more days of MAGA chaos here in DC, a reminder about a few things:
What many say is the Fed’s important measure of inflation came in at a very low number last week, returning back to pre-pandemic levels. This makes future interest rate increases far less likely, and is another sign of just how well America has managed the recovery from COVID and the global inflation brought by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and OPEC’s continued price hikes. While things have been tough here, as this strong Biden ad reminds us, we are getting to the other side.
A new very high quality national tracking poll has Biden up 45-40 over Trump. We got a good new poll of Hispanic voters from Univision. A new CNN poll of New Hampshire has Biden up over Trump 52-40 (!!!). A new series of polls has Biden up over Trump by 3-4 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A new poll has us up in Virginia 40-37. Despite the noise, I feel good about where we are.
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong, and we keep winning elections across the US. They have Trump, and MAGA, and Gaetz, and McCarthy. Who would you rather be?
Virginia Briefing and Call to Action Tonight at 7pm ET - We have an important event tonight at 7pm ET - a live briefing on the critical Virginia election. Our special guest will be Dan Helmer, the Delegate in charge of flipping the Virginia state house blue. It will be recorded and shared here for those who can’t make it live. You can RSVP here.
After a very strong 2022 election, Democrats continue to win elections across the US. It’s very encouraging. But if we don’t get done what we need to do in Virginia, the story of 2023 will be far less encouraging than it is now. We simply need to win here, and head into 2024 with the momentum we need to get to 55 next year. It’s really really important.
Our co-host tonight is the inspiring Katherine White of the Virginia based grassroots group, Network NOVA. While a new poll has Dems up statewide 40-37, there an awful lot of undecideds. So we just have to put our heads down and work it, together.
I want to thank all of you who have already been doing the hard work in Virginia. But if you haven’t gotten involved yet here are a few ways you can help drive the early vote in the days ahead;
Donate to the Majority Project - all funds go directly to the targeted Virginia House and Senate campaigns that will determine control of the legislature
Majority Project Phonebank - call into these targeted races
Connect with grassroots groups working in Virginia, and check out a Sister District-led national phonebank which is making GOTV calls daily
Here’s another encouraging bit of news from that poll that had us up 40-37:
A plurality of Virginia voters wants Governor Glenn Younkin to have less power over local school decisions. That’s according to new polling from the University of Mary Washington.
The new numbers come as book bans, fights at school board meetings, and other headline-making incidents in the state’s education sphere have put a renewed light on the Commonwealth’s 2023 legislative elections. With all 140 House and Senate seats up for grabs, Youngkin is hoping the “parents matter” message that made him the first Republican to win a state-wide election in the Commonwealth in about a decade will resonate once more.
But the new poll suggests Virginia’s parents might be turning away from the message. 42% of 1,000 surveyed Virginians want the governor to have “less power” in schools, while 19% want his authority to stay as is and 21% said they wanted more.
Professor Stephen Farnsworth, the director of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, which conducted the survey, said the numbers could be a bad sign for Youngkin.
“It’s a suggestion that the governor’s strategy of weighing in aggressively on education is not particularly helpful to swing voters,” said Farnsworth.
See everyone tonight at 7pm, and let’s do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Upcoming Hopium Events
Tue, October 3rd, 7pm ET - Hopium/Network NOVA Virginia Election Briefing and Call To Action with Virginia House Campaign Chair Delegate Dan Helmer - RSVP here. All eyes on Virginia now!
Wed, October 11th, 7pm ET - Simon and Tom Bonier Talk Polls, Election Data and The Strong Dem Performance Since Dobbs - RSVP here.
I’ll be speaking to the following grassroots events
Thur, October 5th, 7pm ET - Simon joins Force Multiplier For A Flip The House Fundraiser for 13 Top Candidates for the US House of Representatives - Learn More, Donate/RSVP
Tue, October 10th, 7pm - Simon presents to Floridians For Democracy
Tue, October 10th, 9pm ET - Simon presents to Southern Minnesota Democratic Action Group - Link
Tue, October 24th, 830pm ET - Simon joins California Indivisibles For A Hope-Filled Political Update - Learn More, RSVP
Wed, October 25th, 9pm ET - Blue CD2 New Mexico - Simon joins Reed Galen and Field Team 6 - Learn, Donate/RSVP
Sunday, November 5th, Noon ET - Simon presents to Democrats Abroad, Portugal - More soon
Here’s the election data I am most focused on now:
The Democratic Party Is Strong and On A Very Good Popular Vote Run - Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of any political party in US history. In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51% of the vote, our best showing over 4 elections since FDR’s Presidency. Can we improve on that performance and get to 55% nationally in 2024? I think so.
Democrats Keep Outperforming Expectations - In a “red wave” year, 2022, Democrats gained ground from 2020 in 7 key battlegrounds: AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. We also picked up 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships, and 1 US Senate seat. As we’ve written 2022 was not a single nationalized election, but really two elections - a bluer election in the battleground where we gained, and a redder election outside where we did not. We’ve seen this strong Dem performance continue into 2023 with impressive wins in CO, FL, OH and WI and in special elections across the US. A new 538 analysis: Democrats have been wining big in special elections finds Dems outperforming the partisan lean in districts this year by an average of 10 points in close to 40 special elections across the US - this is a big deal, and similar to what we saw post-Dobbs last year. The Daily Kos special election tracker now has Dems up 7.6 points over 2020 in 27 elections this year. Very encouraging stuff.
The Blueing of the Southwest - Democrats are having their best run in the Southwest since the 1940s and 50s. In 2004 Bush won AZ, CO, NM, NV, Rs controlled 5 of their 8 Senate seats, 14 of their 21 House seats. In 2020 Biden was the first Democratic President to win all 4 of these states in a single election since FDR. Today Rs control none of those 8 Senate seats and we control 14 of 24 House seats there. Our success with Hispanic voters and in heavily Hispanic parts of the country remains one of the Democratic Party’s most successful party-wide efforts over the past generation of US politics.
Keep working hard all and hope to see you tonight at 7pm ET - Simon