We Are Better Off, Hoping The Pause Continues, Congress Gets Back To Work, The Insurrection Never Ended

NC Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton Joins Us Tuesday at 7pm EST

Happy Monday all. Hope you had a good break. Congress returns this week, and Democrats will attempt to pass Ukraine and Israel funding this month, and work to break the GOP Pentagon blockade in the Senate. The pause we’ve seen in the Israel-Hamas war - the return of hostages, the resumption of humanitarian aid - has been encouraging, and we will learn more, soon, perhaps today, if it will continue. As we discussed yesterday, a great deal will depend on whether Hamas can keep returning hostages as over 150 remain, including dozens of women and children.

I found this CNN Fareed Zakaria discussion from yesterday with Richard Haass and Robin Wright, “How Will The Israel-Hamas War End?” really helpful. Haass does a good job explaining the many mistakes Bibi has and continues to make, and offers some smart recommendations on what President Biden should do now.

And yes it’s shocking the Prime Minister of Israel is spending the day, one of the most important since October 7th, with one of the world’s leading anti-Semites rather than focusing on getting his hostages home. It’s another reason we have to keep encouraging Israelis to show Bibi the door. It’s time now.

Above all, I remain grateful today that in a time of such challenge - COVID, insurrection, Russian invasion of Ukraine, October 7th, climate change - America has had such a wise and experienced leader at the helm, guiding us through it all.

We Are Better Off - Returning to one of our favorite topics here at Hopium - data showing that Americans are better off today. Economist Claudia Sahm, a fellow Substacker, has released a new data-filled analysis, Most Americans are better off financially than before the pandemic, which echos some of the arguments we’ve been making here (and here, here). Here is how her new post begins:

“Today’s post offers various facts about people’s finances sourced from representative groups of people and businesses across the country. My focus is on “better off,” not “well off,” and “most” (50% or more of people), not “all.” It’s also not about inequality or comparisons to others. Also, I’m not questioning people’s pessimism in other surveys; I’m simply unpacking it.¹ Finally, I am an independent economist and not here to spin anyone.

The majority of Americans are better off financially now than they were before the pandemic. Full stop. Not every American, but the majority. That’s true across demographic and income groups. It’s in the aggregate and individual-level data:

• Millions more good jobs.

• Bigger paychecks, even after inflation.

• Consumer spending back on strong pre-Covid trend.

• Historic increases in wealth, including at the bottom.

• Lowest debt burdens on record.

It’s become a controversial view, and frankly, if you had asked me in April 2020—when unemployment hit almost 15%—that three and half years later, we would be in a better place than February 2020, I would have said no. But much has happened since then, and information that we now have from a wide range of families suggests that most got ahead; among them, some who had been falling behind for decades.”

Her analysis is a bit nerdy, but worth spending time with. I particularly enjoyed this chart which show those at the bottom of wage earners with the biggest gains since the pandemic:

The Biden team also circulated this clip of MSNBC host Stephanie Rhule talking about how strong the economy is right now:

White House staffer Daniel Hornung shared this great graph this morning:

Yes it is hard to reconcile all this hopeful data with polling which shows people down on the economy. But as I wrote in a recent column, Giving Americas Permission To Love Their Country Again, I’m not sure that current polling is capturing the complexity of people’s views on the economy and their lives, which by many measures are remarkably positive. From a recent Economist/YouGov weekly tracking poll of registered voters and yes all this data is another form of capturing “lived experience:”

• Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way things are going in your life today? Satisfied 64%, Dissatisfied 35%

• How happy would you say you are with your current job? Great deal/somewhat 80%, A little/not at all 19%.

• Do you consider yourself paid fairly or underpaid in your job? Paid fairly 56%, Underpaid 38%.

• Do you think your family income will increase or decrease in 2024? Increase 45%, stay the same 41%, decrease 15%.

It’s all a reminder that Joe Biden is a good President, the country is better off, the Democratic Party is strong and we keep winning elections across the country.

Tues, Nov 28th, 7pm ET - NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton Joins The Hopium Community - Come meet the dynamic new chair of the most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Register here, and learn more about Chair Clayton here. We have a good crowd coming tomorrow, and am excited for this one! Video of our discussion will be posted on the site for those who can’t make it live.

The Insurrection Never Ended - events of the past few months suggests the attack on the US government, American democracy and the Congress didn’t end on January 6th, that it has now just taken a different form. Consider what Trump allied Republicans are doing now:

• Repeatedly preventing, in unprecedented ways, both the House and Senate from performing essential duties. The disabling of the House is far worse than is understood

• Blocking hundreds of Pentagon appointees, weakening our military and enboldening our adversaries across the world in a time of dramatically rising tensions and war

• Blocking over 60 State Department appointments, including 37 Ambassadorships and the Ambassadors to Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. Makes is far harder to achieve diplomatic solutions to our global challenges.

• Blocking critical cybersecurity legislation, have turned off a DHS program called Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS), and are now working to terminate DHS programs to counter use of drones by terrorists here in the US and the office which works to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction against the American people. What possible justification is for any of this?

• Blocking the appointments of US Attorneys, as a way of weakening the Department of Justice and the rule of law more broadly

• Fighting additional aid to Ukraine, once again appeasing Putin and enabling Ukrainian genocide; holding hostage aid to Israel. In recent days Trump has made it clear he intends to withdraw from NATO if he comes to power and end the Western alliance.

• Excusing and covering for Trump’s theft and wanton dissemination of America’s secrets, which is almost certainly the most significant national security breach in US history.

• Elevating Insurrectionists including a man who was the one of the primary architects of the Republican Party’s effort to overturn the 2020 Presidential election and end American democracy to the Speaker’s Chair.

Keep working hard all. The American people are counting on us to not let them win - Simon