Greetings all. Last night I got together with our paid subscribers for our weekly gathering. As I try to do each week with these talks I tried to step back from the day to day crush of news to assess where we are in our grand battle to usher in a “new birth of freedom” here and everywhere. A video and rough transcript can be found above.
I made three main points last night:
1 - Trump’s failed war has pushed his already terrible poll numbers down further and it is now clear 2026 has become a year of significant opportunity for Democrats. We’ve seen polls in recent weeks with Democrats leading in the AK, GA, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX Senate races, outcomes that would give Democrats the majority. Our incredible overperformances and stretch wins in elections all across the country have continued; we’ve stayed very competitive or even bested Trump in the pre-Callais mid-decade redistricting wars; we have strong and grounded candidates running across the country who are raising lots of money; and now we have a big opportunity to take away two Supreme Court seats in Georgia on May 19th.
2 - Trump’s regime is rotting, decaying, failing. Turnover and turmoil have increased. Inflation has soared, and the economy has slowed. Iran is besting him in the war. Congressional Republicans are struggling to get even simple things done and party infighting has intensified.
As we discussed with Katie Phang last night an increasingly desperate Trump, enabled by a villainous Todd Blanche, has in recent days escalated his illiberal attacks on perceived “enemies” and opponents, growing more unhinged, paranoid and dangerous. Blanche is clearly willing to go much further in satisfying Trump’s dark impulses than was AG Bondi, and we will have to start organizing ourselves more effectively to counter their new authoritarian ambitions.
3 - Callais, and our new national map. First, I’ve pulled this text from a social media thread yesterday from NYT journalist Ida Bae Wells on the Callais decision:
The Voting Rights Act is essentially dead and it’s quite possible that we will, like when a similar SCOTUS gutted civil rights at the fall of Reconstruction, see a disappearance of much of the Black congressional representation, especially in the most heavily Black states, which are in the South.
We must understand the racist political rhetoric, the erasure and attacks on Black history, the reinstalling of Confederate names and monuments, all go hand-in-hand as the Court and Congress legitimize the taking of political rights and the end of multiracial democracy itself.
Folks will try to parse language around this, using words such as “limits” the VRA or “diminishes” the VRA, but the acts most potent tools for ensuring Black representation or that Black people can pick their representation have been eliminated.
And to be clear, in case it’s not, democracy cannot and will not exist without these protections. We already see a South so heavily gerrymandered that numerical majorities cannot win elections and where a minority holds supermajorities in state legislatures.
There are people still living who fought — and watched their compatriots be murdered — for the passage of this act and to attempt to democratize America. To see it completed felled in the span of their OWN lifetime is just absolutely devastating.
I say it again and again: Because we don’t learn the real history of this country, we do not understand what this country is capable of. After 1870, 22 Black men served in Congress. By 1901, because of racist SCOTUS rulings, electoral coups and election cheating and violence, there were none.
Next, our new national map. It has been a core understanding here at Hopium that there was urgency to Democrats expanding our map, and learning how to win again in red states and red places in order to regain our majority and take power away from MAGA. This strategy was driven by three realities: 1) the tough 2026 Senate map (and to a lesser degree a tough House one too) 2) population shifts that will give Republican states more Congressional seats and Electoral College votes after the next census 3) the possibility of an aggressive Callais ruling.
The 2026 Senate map. Look where we are competing now - Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, maybe Florida. All states Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024, all states where we have not regularly competed in statewide elections in decades. We are diving deep into very tough territory for us, as we are to a lesser degree in the House, way outside the traditional geographic and demographic targets of recent national Democratic campaigns.
Census/2032. The NYT has a very good overview of what is likely to happen after the census and the traditionally every 10 year redistricting:
NY, MN, PA are all likely to all lose a seat, California three. So unless we can gain power in these four currently GOP-led states we will lose 6-7 additional Congressional seats and 6-7 Electoral College votes in 2032, making majorities to both gain and keep.
Callais. Here’s an initial look at what the GOP is likely to try over the next two cycles in 2028 in AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, SC, TN and TX:
So, taken together, what this means is that Democrats need to start visualizing “the battleground” not just as the traditional battlegrounds of AZ, GA, NV, MI, NC, PA,WI and but also now AK, IA, OH and AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, SC, TN and TX too.
While at first blush this all may seem daunting, hard, overwhelming, it is what we have to do now, where we have to fight. And as we discussed last night, it has been the big argument of the new Ken Martin-Jane Kleeb era of the DNC - we need to compete and invest everywhere now, not just in the traditional 6-7 Presidential battlegrounds, as the new DNC has been doing. Our party must now grow, evolve, and become something different than we were. We need to build the next thing, together - for Trump represents a discontinuity, a before and after event, and we really don’t what our next generation of politics will look like, or who will lead us. And so far, this cycle, we’ve been pretty successful, winning all across the country in red places and red states. We’ve new leaders emerge like Acton, Ossoff, Sherrill, Spanberger, Talarico, and Anderson Clayton, Mamdani, and AOC. Our Senate candidates are competitive and even leading right now in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas - something that would have been unimaginable a year ago. In Florida in recent years we’ve flipped the two largest cities, Jacksonville and Miami, and even just flipped the Mar-a-Lago state legislative seat - very encouraging stuff.
We may already be further along in building the next thing that we currently understand.
This need for us win in places where we’ve not been winning has been driving our electoral strategy at Hopium all cycle. Our Audacious Expansion Fund made early, critical investments in what are now the battlegrounds of this election. The candidates we’ve been supporting are in stretch districts and states, where we’ve not been winning regularly - Georgia, Iowa, Tennessee and rural parts of blue and purple states.
I don’t know what happens now. But we should be visualizing success and not only failure. Look at what we’ve been flipping this cycle; look at how we’ve bested Trump in the pre-Callais redistricting war; look at where we are competing now in the Senate. We can stretch and grow this party; field new and diverse candidates of all kinds, ones suited to their districts and states; make new arguments and advance a new agenda suited to the moment.
I will end this post today with a passage from an article I wrote in the days before the 2020 election, one that spelled out my hopes for the possible Biden Presidency. It is perhaps more today relevant today than it was in six years ago:
Of all the big things we have to do in the coming years there is one more – to honor and build on the work of FDR American leaders should forcefully denounce white supremacy in all of its forms. We have to make clear that American, Western, liberal, Four Freedom values are universal values, values of all people everywhere, regardless of race, religion or country of origin. They belong to all of us. White supremacy is not just a malicious legacy belief system from our racist and colonial past, it’s also profoundly anti-modern; for who could, after seeing the advances and potential of the people all over the world over these past fifty years ever believe that any race or religion or culture was somehow not capable of extraordinary things, and the people of all nations not deserving of the opportunities and freedoms we cherish. Trump’s white supremacy must be returned, aggressively, to the dustbin of history, where it belongs.
That’s what we talked about last night……
Now, everyone……
Let’s Get To Work!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
Rallying For Jordan and Rankin For Georgia Supreme Court - This is our next big opportunity to make good trouble all. The Election is May 19th, early voting has begun, and we have 2 great candidates, Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who have a serious shot at flipping two GOP-held Supreme Court seats. Watch our new interview with Jordan and Rankin, donate to their campaign, and volunteer no matter where you are! In just one day we’ve already raised $17,500 towards our $50,000 goal!
We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $627,200 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews. Interviews with Jonathan Nez and Elaine Luria coming soon!
If you are looking for inspiration watch a few of these interviews - I promise these great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November! For it is simple - if we win these twelve races the House flips. Period.
James Talarico For Texas - $63,500 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $87,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
Winning Ohio - $131,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde
This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $541,500 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $107,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $171,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff
Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield
There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; and learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year.
Here’s our working Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:
Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions
Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia
Roll back the new, illegal tariffs
Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us
Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere
Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people
Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation
End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health
Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable
Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and elections to win, together! - Simon
