European Right Underperforms Public Polling, Trump's "Strong Leader" Problem, Making June Count

I'm heading to Seattle tomorrow - hope to see folks there!

Happy Monday all. Got a few things for you today:

The Choice, The Contrast, Joe Biden Is A Good President - I’ve been thinking a lot this weekend about something I wrote to you about the other day - the idea of establishing a clear contrast in the election. It’s something I’ve been referring to as “the choice.” Central to my theory of 2024 is that regardless of where polling is today once the Biden campaign was able to bring “the choice” to voters in the battlegrounds Biden would gain and we would win as we’ve been winning in election after election across the US since Dobbs. It’s why I think commentators who’ve dismissed our persistent winning and overperformance since Dobbs are missing what may be the central dynamic in American politics today - that MAGA is just too ugly to win, and MAGA 2024 is far uglier and more dangerous than it was in 2022 or 2020.

I articulated an early version of this theory in a memo I wrote in the fall of 2021, 3 Reasons Why 2022 Won’t Be 2010. I argued that Republicans were making a big strategic mistake in the mid-term election. Usually when a party loses like the Republicans lost in 2018 and 2020 - White House, Senate, House - a party runs away from the politics that caused those losses. In 2021 Republicans could have chosen a different path than MAGA. But they chose to double down and run towards MAGA, not away from it. This decision was in my view a huge electoral mistake, as there was a proven, durable anti-MAGA majority out there that would make it far harder for Republicans to have a good mid-term if they presented themselves as MAGA. And that’s what happened in 2022. Due to your donations and hard work, we were able to bring this “choice” - pragmatic Democrats, heads down working to make things better vs the extremism of MAGA - to the voters of the battleground and we defied history and expectations. There was no red wave, and we picked up a US Senate seat, 2 governorships, 4 state legislative chambers.

Our unexpected party in power success then carried over to a very blue 2023 across the US. We kept raising lots of money, we kept doing the work, and our candidates and ballot initiatives were able to bring “the choice” to voters again and again. And we won again and again, even in places like Florida and Ohio where we weren’t supposed to win.

In many of these elections, Democrats outperformed public polling and MAGA underperformed. This dynamic is something we’ve seen carry over to 2024. Tom Suozzi dramatically outperformed public polling in his big win in NY-3 a few months ago, and Trump underperformed public polls in GOP primary after primary earlier this year. When people go vote and have to make a real choice between MAGA and better alternatives, MAGA melts and loses ground. The ugliness of MAGA makes it too hard for many people to go there.

In my 2021 memo, I talked about how what was likely to happen in 2022 was that Democrats would have enough to remind this anti-MAGA majority of why they had voted against the Rs in recent elections and do better than anticipated. It was not clear then what the issues would be that could repel 2022 voters, but at that time I believed based on the crazy votes Rs had taken in 2021 we would have enough to remind voters of their extremism and make the 2022 elections competitive. And then Uvalde happened, and then Dobbs, and then the January 6th Commission - and the ugliness of MAGA was thrown in everyone’s face. It was impossible not to see. The election had, on its own, become about the extremism and danger of the Republican Party. It was the most important issue in 2022, far more than disappointment in Joe Biden and the Democrats. This ugliness was reinforced by the GOP’s “bad candidate” problem, and Democrats had a mid-term to remember.

One of the central questions of 2024 has always been would Joe Biden and the Democrats be able to tap into this deep distrust and fear of MAGA, establish “the choice” again, and use that revulsion to once again outperform polling and win? Dobbs, Uvalde, Jan 6th, GOP “bad candidates” did it last time. What would do it this time?

We’ve known from lots of polling this year that a guilty conviction could weaken Trump’s support. Would it become an event that could resurface this fear and opposition to MAGA, and alter the course of the election as Dobbs, etc did in 2022? As I wrote yesterday we now have polling suggesting that the election is changing due to these 34 felony convictions. 3 credible, serious polls released in the last few days found Biden gaining a few points, and erasing any residual lead Trump had in the national popular vote or the battlegrounds. As someone who has been doing cable news regularly for over 20 years, I can tell you that the material available now to evoke the ugliness of Trump and MAGA has never been greater. Watch my CNN hit this morning through to the end. Listen to what I’m able to discuss - MAGA’s assault on fundamental human rights common throughout the world; Trump embracing the most anti-Hispanic, anti-immigrant figure, Joe Arpaio, while campaigning, for, checks notes, “Hispanic voters” in Southwest; Trump now running as someone who has committed sexual assault, defrauded the government of hundreds of millions of dollars, of having been convicted of 34 felonies. The CNN host, Jon Berman, ends our discussion this morning with an explanation that the sexual assault I was referring to was Trump’s assault on E. Jean Carroll. It’s just devastating stuff.

Two final points today. The Trumpian/MAGA underperformance of public polls in recent years showed up in the European elections this weekend. Here’s The Economist:

When people went to vote in Europe, not answer a poll, the right underperformed the polls this weekend. When voters had to make a real choice the right melted and lost ground. For like MAGA here, the European right is ugly and dangerous, affiliated with Putin, and when push came to shove many voters just couldn’t go there.

Point two. I am beginning to believe that the central construct of Trump’s 2024 narrative - I am strong, Biden is weak - may be in the process of taking a very big hit. First, the primary way Trumpworld has worked to establish this strong/weak frame is through his phantom “lead” in the polls:

Trump leads, he is strong

Biden trails, he is weak

If within the next few weeks, Biden opens up a slight lead the foundation of Trump’s brand architecture may start to erode in a way that leaves him with very little to run on. That’s why the Rs work the current polling discourse so hard, and why we also must contest this space. For “I am winning” is all the dangerous, extreme, diminished, impulsive, ugly 2024 Trump has right now. If it slips away it’s an enormous problem for him. And it may be slipping away.

In my CNN hit this morning I also felt something else I had not yet felt, and it was something I said on air. How in the world can you establish yourself as a strong leader for the country if you are a rapist, a fraudster, a traitor, and a felon? I mean, just c’mom. For as I said in the interview the line Mitt Romney keeps using - I don’t want my President to be someone who committed sexual assault - is simple, true, and just brutal for Trump. In ways I had not understood, the guilty verdict and “rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon” makes it far harder for him to establish this strong/weak frame which may be the only way Trump can win.

Perhaps Trump himself understood this last week. For in those many Fox interviews he did last week he looked much more pleading and vulnerable than usual, weaker, less commanding, even pathetic at times. Given the ferocity of Murdoch world’s rallying for Trump last week, it’s possible they know Trump’s internals are showing erosion.

Sorry for the ramble today friends. I think the election is the process of changing, and I don’t think in a good way for Trump and MAGA. We have a long way to go, much will change, and we have a lot of work to do.

But remember:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, winning elections across the US, raising tons of money and is in the process of building the most powerful political machine we’ve ever had.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing we’ve all ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than an organization capable of winning the election this year.

More Hopium 2024 election resources:

• My new, comprehensive video presentation on the 2024 election

• Make June Count by supporting our top candidates and states

• The Economy Is Strong, Joe Biden Is A Good President, and With Democrats, Things Get Better

• Meet Jane Kleeb and George Whitesides

• Trump Is A Bad Man, A Serial Criminal - His Agenda Is Even Worse

• Upcoming Events - I’ll be in Seattle Tuesday, and more

Making June Count/Supporting George Whitesides- The Hopium community is bringing it and making June count! Together we’ve raised over $425,000 for our candidates and states in the last three! Incredible stuff, thank you all.

Here’s a fundraising update with our progress toward our June 30th goals:

• Biden Harris - goal of $400,000 goal, at $366,000 today - Donate Now

• Winning The House - goal of $300,000, at $275,000 today - Donate Now

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - goal of $300,000, $189,000 today - Donate Now

• North Carolina - goal of $300,000, at $238,000 today - Donate Now

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - goal of $100,000, at $48,000 today - Donate Now

You can use this link to learn more about our battleground candidates and states, and this one will help you get to know our 12 courageous House candidates. All links include information on how to volunteer. This is a huge month and we just need to leave it all out there on the playing field - thank you, everyone!

As a token of my gratitude for all that you are doing, I am now offering a 10% discount on annual paid subscriptions for new subscribers through the end of the month. Click on this link to subscribe today. I hope we will get to 10,000 paid subscribers by June 30th - we are over 9,000 today - which will put Hopium in a financial place to close this election strong.

June Events, Hopium Hits The Road - I’ve added some new events to the schedule - check ‘em out! Note there is an “Upcoming Events” tab on the Hopium website’s navigation bar where you can always find our latest schedule.

Tue, June 11, 230pm PT - I’ll be in Seattle, Washington for a conversation with Luis Miranda and Pearl Jam’s Stone Gossard to celebrate Luis’ new book RELENTLESS: My Story of the Latino Spirit That Is Transforming America. The event will take place at El Centro de la Raza’s Centilia Cultural Center, 1660 S Plaza Roberto Maestas Festival Street in Seattle. It’s free and open to the public and after the event concludes there will be a small gathering for Hopium Chronicles subscribers. Learn more, register here.

Thur, June 20, 5pm CT - I’ll be in Madison, Wisconsin for an in-person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Fundraising event with the great WI Dem Chair Ben Wikler. Please register and donate here. Excited to be heading back into the 2024 battleground!

Tues, June 25, 730pm ET - The monthly Zoom gathering of the entire Hopium Chronicles community. Register here.

Thur, June 27 - 1st Presidential Debate on CNN

Sat, June 29 - I’ll be speaking in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit in Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register here. One of my favorite events of the year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun, June 30 - Last day to Make June Count!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fighting with all of you - Simon