GOP 2024 Is Weak Not Strong, Anne Applebaum's New Book, Why I Am Optimistic We'll Win This Year
Great New Media From Our Friend Ruben Gallego. Do More and Worry Less
Happy Friday all. Sorry I am late today. Have been traveling these last two days and I need to do a better job posting while on the road. Has been a little tougher than I thought. Let’s get to it:
Great New Media From Ruben Gallego - Our good friend Ruben Gallego dropped this wonderful bit of media yesterday:
GOP 2024 Is Weak, Struggling, A Raging Dumpster Fire - Top Trump advisor Steven Bannon is headed to jail, joining two other Trump advisors, Allan Weisselberg and Peter Navarro who recently reported to prison. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan said he isn’t supporting Trump, joining a growing list of prominent Republicans working against the GOP nominee. Trump’s struggles in keeping his coalition together showed up again in Indiana Tuesday night where long gone Nikki Haley got 22% of the vote. MAGA Rs tried to take down their own Speaker, again. A porn star talked of her adulterous affair with Trump in court this week, as he watched, silently, from a few feet away.
This morning the Washington Post published a remarkable story about the financial and organizational struggles of the Trump campaign and RNC. I literally laughed out loud a few times reading it. There is Olympian levels of GOP bullshit in here and all sorts of signs of serious dysfunction. Some excerpts:
Strategists for both major parties expect Democrats to raise and spend more than Republicans over the coming months, a dynamic that has been magnified by the significant legal costs Trump’s fundraising apparatus has absorbed to defend him in state and federal courts.
The situation has alarmed GOP officials in key states like Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, who have yet to receive promised funding, staff or even briefings on the new plans since the Trump team took control of the Republican National Committee in March. An earlier party blueprint for a general election build-out has been discarded, party officials say. Plans to open new offices have been scuttled. Hiring has been slowed.
“In order to win close elections in Georgia, you have to have a ground game that emphasizes turning out early votes and absentee votes,” said Cody Hall, a senior adviser to Gov. Brian Kemp (R). “I have seen no evidence of them having any of that. The Trump campaign has a consultant in Georgia, but there is nothing else that I can see. … Everyone is generally concerned.”
and…..
Arizona GOP chairwoman Gina Swoboda called RNC Chairman Michael Whatley on Monday to raise concerns that Arizona was not getting enough resources, according to three people familiar with the call, who like others for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions….
“There is no sign of life,” said Kim Owens, a Republican operative and public relations professional in Arizona. “Especially in a state that Trump lost so closely last time, you’d expect to have more of a presence. I would think, ‘Let’s step it up.’ I think it’s a terrible mistake.”
In Michigan, some of the state’s operatives and Republican lawmakers have grown concerned about a lack of an operation there, according to four people familiar with the matter…
and a reminder that the idiocy remains very very strong with Trump:
Trump himself has echoed that view in conversations with multiple top advisers, according to people familiar with the conversations. He has told people in charge of the RNC to focus on election security more than field programs, because he believes he will be able to personally motivate his voters to the polls in the fall, these people said.
In private conversations with both Whatley and McDaniel, Trump told them to not worry about getting out the vote since he could do it himself. He told them to “focus on the cheating.” Party leaders say they are planning a massive operation around “election integrity,” with tens of thousands of volunteers who will monitor precincts and vote-counting across the country.
and……
But in the meantime, the complaints have continued. One person who works on battleground issues for the Trump campaign said there has been a lack of strategy articulated to workers in the field.
“What they are totally missing is a rank-and-file army,” a Republican involved in Trump’s efforts said.
Another key Republican familiar with the national GOP’s operation in Arizona bemoaned the lack of money, staffing and direction from Trump’s team in the sprawling battleground state. In 2020, he lost the state by 10,457 votes and its 11 electoral votes went to Biden.
“They haven’t even sent a data person,” the Republican said. “I said to someone yesterday, ‘No one’s coming — it’s just us.’”
This story confirms something I’ve been writing about here for weeks - Trump is very behind Biden financially and organizationally, and simply is not going to be able to catch up this year. It’s all very Trumpian - all hat, no cattle. And it is a very very big problem for the Republican Party up and down the ballot in the battlegrounds and across the country.
This is all part of why I am optimistic about winning this year.
Here’s my latest take on things as we head into the weekend - Joe Biden is a good President. The economy is historically strong and the country is better off. National polling is close and competitive, within margin of error. We’ve gained a few points in recent weeks in the national vote and in the Congressional generic. The two sets of battleground state polls out last week - Emerson and CBS - had every single state within margin of error. We’ve had encouraging polls in AZ and WI this week. As I wrote Tuesday Senate and House polling is good and the GOP’s “bad candidate” in the battlegrounds problem has returned. Due to Biden’s successful Presidency Trump’s central attacks against the President are evaporating. We have enormous financial and organizational advantages right now. Trump has the most disqualifying “negatives” we’ve ever seen, and a deeply consequential rebellion inside his party is becoming an existential threat to his candidacy.
Finally, as I wrote on Sunday, we have a lot of evidence, including Tuesday’s strong Nikki Haley vote in Indiana, that as Americans get closer to voting - moving from registered voter to likely voter to voters - Trump and Republicans lose ground, and we gain. And the problem for Trump and the Rs is the whole country has begun going through that process now and will continue to do so as we go deeper into 2024.
Anne Applebaum’s New Book, Autocracy, Inc - Looks like the new book by journalist and historian Anne Applebaum is going to have to become a collective summer read for our community. Applebaum has been among my most important teachers in this age of MAGA, and she just posted a new essay in the Atlantic detailing the main themes of the book. The articles is called “The New Propaganda War: Autocrats in China, Russia, and elsewhere are now making common cause with MAGA Republicans to discredit liberalism and freedom around the world.”
She writes about her new article and book in the Atlantic newsletter today:
In the 20th Century, Communist Party propaganda was overwhelming and inspiring, or at least it was meant to be. The future it portrayed was shiny and idealized, a vision of clean factories, abundant produce, and healthy tractor drivers with large muscles and square jaws.
In the 21st century, authoritarian propaganda, whether coming from Russia, China, or the American far-right, has a very different goal: to create fear, cynicism, nihilism, and apathy. The point is to convince Americans that their democracy is degenerate, their elections illegitimate, their civilization dying. This story is told not only by Russian and Chinese bots and anonymous trolls, but by leading members of the Republican party, including the presidential candidate himself.
That’s the subject of my June cover story, “The New Propaganda War,” an article that is partially excerpted from my forthcoming book, Autocracy Inc.
I’m going to reach out to her and see if she can join us in the coming weeks. In the meantime do read her essay and buy the book. It speaks to many of the same themes and understandings we talk about here every day at Hopium.
Here’s a part of what I wrote in my very first post here:
I am calling it Hopium Chronicles because I want this to be a journey guided by hope and optimism, of belief in ourselves, in love of country and a clear understanding of the nature of the conflict we are in. I have become convinced that part of Greater MAGA’s strategy is to intentionally poison our discourse with negative sentiment every day. They want us to feel bad about America, our democracy, our leaders, our institutions, our success, each other, ourselves. We cannot let them do that any more. While they talk American down every day, we need to talk it up. While they spread lies, we respond with truth and data. Hopium is a rejection of the darkness they are trying to spread. It is a way of standing up for our great country and its remarkable people. It is the key to how we win.
Upcoming Events - Got a few things coming up:
Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register
Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon
Fri/Sat, June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit, Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register
I will also note that I’ve been a little slow at getting back to those who’ve requested me for events for this summer. Between my daughter’s lacrosse play offs and graduation festivities this spring and some critical travel dates that are still getting ironed out I’ve been unable to commit to as many events as I hoped. Will try to get back to everyone early next week - appreciate the patience all!
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - We are still raising money for and supporting three critical projects:
Thanks to the many thousands of you who have already contributed or volunteered!
Keep working hard all. It’s how we win - Simon
Meanwhile, Trump continues to be stuck in stormy weather. Lawrence O’Donnell has an utterly devastating summary of what happened in court yesterday. This really is a must-watch.
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/lawrence-why-trump-s-lawyer-called-him-the-orange-turd-during-stormy-testimony-210625605606
Stormy Daniel is likely to make the history books – as the one contractor Trump actually paid. While a host of spineless men bend the knee, E.Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels are to be commended for their strength, integrity, intelligence and wit.
Not surprised to hear Trump's legal woes is taking money away from organizing efforts. Explains, in part, why it is reported he was asking fossil fuel companies to pony up $1 billion in exchange for his reversing Biden's climate change initiatives at a fundraiser recently, an action of apparent extortion which, had it been made pre-Trump by a presidential candidate and reported publicly, would have been by itself a campaign killer. This type of rhetoric by Trump also shows how desperate he is right now as a candidate and a fundraiser.