Harris Up 4 in PA, Bringing The Joy To The Early Vote, Closing Strong With Josh Stein

Call, Postcard For Tony Vargas (NE) This Thur at 715pm ET/Welcome New Subscribers!

Happy Saturday all. I’ve spent a lot of time writing various drafts this morning and didn’t really like any of them. So I am going to do something simple, not complicated as yesterday’s post had links to lots of video and analysis that you can watch, listen to and read this weekend. The link includes my Thursday night interview with Stephanie Ruhle on MSNBC where I provide an overview of where I think the race is now. As I say on air - I would much rather be us than them with a little more than three weeks to go.

So here is today’s big simple - the election is really close, and we just have to work as hard as we can to go win it, together.

Republicans have dropped over 60 polls into the battlegrounds over the last two weeks to try to move the polling averages towards them. They would not be doing all this if they believed they were winning the election. The national polls actually got better for Harris this week. The battleground states are close, and I share this data from the new Wall Street Journal’s set of battleground polls whose lead pollster is the same firm that works for Trump. Fom Murdoch and Trump we get:

  • Arizona - Harris 47-45%

  • Michigan - Harris 47-45%

  • Georgia - Harris 46-45%

  • Wisconsin - Harris 46-45%

  • North Carolina - Trump 46-45%

  • Pennsylvania - Trump 46-45%

  • Nevada - Trump 47-42%

In this Murdoch/Trump poll Harris gets to 278 and wins. I still believe based on my conversations with folks on the ground and just my years of experience that we are more likely to win NV and NC than Trump, and today’s NYT poll has Harris up 4 in Pennslyvania. Here is the graph from the NYT:

In Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris’s polling lead has been steady, though the state remains tight. Her advantage, 50 percent to 47 percent, falls inside the margin of error. But this was the third Times/Siena survey in two months showing support for Ms. Harris from at least half of the state. (Her lead in the poll was four percentage points when calculated using unrounded figures.)

Yes she is down in AZ in the NYT today, but in recent weeks the polls in AZ and NV, two heavily Latino states, have been all over the place. A Dem tracking poll I saw earlier this week in Arizona had Gallego up 7 and Harris up 1, similar to the WSJ data above. As Ruben himself told me when we spoke this week if we go into Election Day with him up 7 or 8 VP Harris will carry the state.

To repeat - this Murdoch/Trump map is a winning map for us. This is what they are seeing now. Which is why they are flooding the zone with with red wave polls. Because they do not think they are winning. And they aren’t. And if we close strong, give it everything we got, we will win.

As I like to say we are winning the election but have not won it yet.

While it is early, we are outperforming them in the seven battleground states in the early vote. This is today’s aggregate of the 7 battleground states via TargetEarly. We are running well ahead of 2020 so far.

Our team is coming out of the box strong and we just have to keep working it. As the Vice President, our joyful warrior, says - the baton was not passed by Joe Biden to her. It was passed to all of us.

Friends, let’s keep working hard, working the early vote, and work together to win this thing in October, and then again on Election Day!

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Meanwhile, the ugly one’s message these last few days increasingly sounds like the desperate message of a losing campaign:

Closing Strong With Josh Stein - I am excited to send along our interview with Josh Stein, the AG of North Carolina, from our terrific new episode of Closing Strong, my video series on the 2024 election with Tara McGowan and COURIER Newsroom. You can find it above. In the interview we talk to Attorney General Stein about the recovery from Helene, the struggle against Trump’s FEMA disinfo and the election. Josh is way ahead right now against the venal Mark Robinson, and if he can keep his current margins in the polls on Election Day Vice President Harris can and should win North Carolina.

If you want to help us win this critical state donate to our ongoing fundraiser for our friend Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Democratic Party. Let’s turn the Tar Heel State blue!

Doing More, Worrying Less In The Home Stretch - My one ask today - donate to the North Carolina Democratic Party. With Helene their job got harder and more expensive, and if we win North Carolina it is almost certain Trump cannot win. This can be the knockout state, and with late voter reg there we can keep growing the electorate over the next few weeks.

Thank you everyone for what you’ve done for our candidates and state parties. We are already hitting some of our October 31st goals. It’s amazing.

Hard work is good work. Let’s make this a big weekend folks and show our candidates and parties lots of love!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,211,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:

Winning The House - There are 4 ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

Tony Vargas, our great candidate running and leading in NE-02

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego. If you want to help defeat Deb Fischer give to the great NE Dem Party today!

Grow/Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off, and you get access to at least one live 2024 election briefing with me exclusively for paid subscribers each week in the home stretch.

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Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you!!!!!!!!!! - Simon

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