Holy Moly - Another Huge Jobs Report!!!!

479k New Jobs w/Revisions, GDP Growth 3.3%, Stock Market Breaking Records, Inflation Falling, Real Wage Growth Robust, Lowest Uninsured Rate Ever, Deficit Trillions Less - Congrats Everyone!!!!!!!

Happy jobs day all! A few things today:

My Current Take On The 2024 Election

• Hopium Posts - Good New Biden Polling, The Democratic Party Is Strong, Republicans Are Taking An Enormous Risk With Trump

• Video Interviews - MSNBC’s Last Word, MeidasTouch

• Audio Podcasts - The Ezra Klein Show, Deep State Radio w/David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan, Rick Wilson’s Enemies List

Holy Moly - Another Huge Jobs Report!!!!

The new Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report has dropped and it’s a really big one!!!!!

• 353,000 new jobs, with upward revisions 479,000 new jobs altogether, unemployment rate 3.7%. With 1.3 jobs available per unemployed persons (way above historic norms), and the prime age worker participation rate above pre-pandemic levels, the US continues to experience one of the strongest labor markets in modern American history and certainly the best since the 1960s. A majority of Americans have never been alive in a job market this strong and robust.

• Average hourly earnings were up 0.6% in January, which is more than 7% annually - a really big and encouraging number. With inflation running between 2.5% and 3.5% the real wage gains Americans are experiencing right now are some of the most significant in generations. Note that groceries have only risen by 1.3% over the past year, well below the wage gains we are seeing.

• Despite enormous challenges - COVID, insurrection, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global inflation, repeated OPEC price hikes, war in the Middle East - the performance of the American economy over the past year has been remarkable. GDP growth has been 4.1% over the last two quarters, our recovery from COVID has been the strongest in the G7, the stock market is at all time highs, wage growth remains very strong and outpacing inflation, consumer confidence is rising, sharply. Things were hard in recent years, but they are much better now. We are getting there, together, and Joe Biden now has a very strong case for re-election.

With this new data our monthly jobs tracker clocks in at:

• 33.8m jobs - 16 years of Clinton, Obama

• 14.8m jobs - 3 years of Biden

• 1.9m jobs - 16 years of Bush, Bush and Trump

Biden's 14.8m jobs are more than 8 times as many jobs as were created in the 16 years of the last 3 Republican Presidencies, combined.  Since 1989 and the end of the Cold War, the US has seen 51 million new jobs created.  49 million of those 51 million jobs - 96% - have been created under Democratic Presidents. Just 2 million jobs - 4% - have been created under Republicans.

Let’s go to our monthly deep dive into data, charts and graphs!

What this data tells us is that since this new age of globalization began in 1989, a modern and forward-looking Democratic Party has repeatedly seen strong economic growth on its watch.  Republican Presidents, on the other hand, have overseen three consecutive recessions - the last two, severe. The contrast in performance here is very stark. It is not a stretch to state that the GOP’s economic track record over the past 30+ years has been among the worst in the history of the United States.

Let’s drill down on Biden’s economic record a bit:

• Best economic recovery from COVID in the G7, stock market breaking records, 401(k)s are happy

• GDP grew by 4.1% over the past two quarters, and has been on average almost 3% in Biden’s Presidency, 3 times higher than Trump averaged per year

• Lowest unemployment rate in peacetime economy since WWII, jobs more plentiful today than any time since the 1960s. 8 times as many Biden jobs in 36 months as last 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years. Overwhelming majority of Americans have never experienced a job market this robust and strong

• All measures of consumer sentiment are improving, some sharply

• Inflation continues to decline, and mortgages, rents, and many food items are actually falling

• Very elevated wage gains, new business starts and prime-age worker participation rate. 1.3 job openings per unemployed person - an amazing stat

• Lowest uninsured rate in history, ACA signups this past year highest ever

• The deficit is trillions of dollars lower today than it was when Trump was in the White House

• Median wealth up 37% from 2020-2022; median wealth for 18-34 year olds in this period more than doubled

• The Biden Administration has erased more than $130b in student debt

• As of May, home ownership rates for Gen Z were above both Millennials and Gen X at this point in their lives

• Many cities and states have raised the minimum wage in recent years, creating a much higher income floor for young and low-wage workers

• Domestic oil production is on track to set records in 2023, and we are setting records with renewable energy production too

• Biden’s ambitious investment agenda will create growth, innovation, opportunities for American workers for decades to come, and is already dramatically accelerating our energy transition from carbon-based fuels

The bottom line is that Democratic policies have repeatedly been able to make globalization work for the American people in this new and challenging age.  GOP policies have repeatedly failed to deliver, as a national party Republicans have repeatedly failed to do their part. 

It is a core belief here that the current radicalization of the GOP is intimately linked to its repeated failure to handle the challenges of the post-Cold War era.  The rigid ideological approach of the modern GOP has left it unable to govern in a time of rapid change; and those repeated failures have left many Republicans angry, reactionary and willing to do the unthinkable to stay in or regain power.  The modern GOP has no answers for many of the most important challenges America faces today, and rather than modernizing, and adapting, as all institutions must in a time of change, the GOP has decided to fight the future by trying to rig the system to remain in power while the country and its people drift from their narrow grasp. 

This argument – about the success Democrats have achieved through modernization, and the failures of the GOP for their refusal to do so – is at the very core of my most important presentation, With Democrats Things Get Better.  You can learn more and watch this 30 minute presentation here.

Finally, I believe our overarching message priority this year is to get into positive territory against the Republicans on the economy. I talk about why this is so important in a short take video. Given this strong track record going all the back to 1989 we shouldn’t be losing the economic debate to these guys. It is critical that we work together next year to establish this basic contrast:

Dems = growth, lower deficits, progress for workers and families

Rs = recession, higher deficits, American decline

As I recently posted here, the conversation about the economy in the US remains very red wavy - it is full of false right-wing narratives that are distorting our understanding of what’s happening here in our own country. The bottom line is that our economy is historically strong. Joe Biden has been a very good President. The country is much better off today. And there is a great deal of data to suggest that Americans are not as down on the economy and Biden as conventional wisdom holds.

I am proud of our country, our President and our Party. We need to be very loud in the coming months about all the good we’ve done. Our ability to win in November may very well depend on how successful we are in fighting this economic red wave and helping Americans come to a better understanding of how successful we all have been, together.

Keep working hard everyone - Simon