House Rs Slink Back Into The Capital, Grijalva Gets Sworn In Today, Epstein: Trump "Knew About The Girls," Understanding Strong And Weak

People are pissed, and we need to keep fighting

Morning all. Lots of thoughts and feelings today. Won’t be able to pull them altogether, yet, so today’s post is more notes than essay…

First, we’ve had two very good in depth discussions about the path forward in the last two days - Stuart Stevens and Katie Phang - encourage you to get to them when you can. I also look forward to getting together with paid subscribers tonight at 7pm ET. We will go until 815pm, a little longer than usual, so I can take a few more questions and spend time talking out where we are.

Standing this morning by yesterday’s post that argued as down as we feel now Republicans have come out of this shutdown fight and the 2025 elections deeply battered, weakened, and even further away from the electorate. We may not be where we want to be today but either are the Republicans.

Trump remains incredibly unpopular, his agenda even more so. He is in clear physical and cognitive decline. Polling since the election suggest things are getting worse for them, and the red waving of his unpopularity has begun to unravel. We just blew them out in the elections all across the country, and have seen significant gains in Party ID, the generic ballot and our management of the economy. He and their agenda were a drag on their candidates in 2025 and almost certainly will be again in 2026. While we may be down right now the data on their end is all bad and getting worse.

Here’s my weekly break out of the Economist/YouGov tracking poll:

We are going to learn a lot more in the coming days about why Mike Johnson has kept the House out for so long, and has already announced Members are being sent home tomorrow after they vote to re-open the government tonight. It all reeks of fear, failure, dysfunction. What are they so scared of? It is Epstein? Is it more? My own speculation is that Johnson knows he has lost control over the House, and that after this first Epstein related discharge petition passes it will likely lead to more, making him far more a eunuch than a Speaker.

The House is incredibly behind on forging a 2026 budget. There is no possible justification for sending folks home. They have an extraordinary amount of very hard work to do, and we have long holiday breaks already coming up. The cowardly Speaker is very clearly scared of something, really scared, and it is causing him to act recklessly, in a way that is in clear violation of the Oath that he took.

Adelita Grijalva will be sworn in today at 4pm ET (watch our recent discussion). Details from the partial release of the Epstein files to the House have already started spilling out this morning. Here’s the lead story in New York Times right now (gift link). In one email Epstein himself wrote Trump “knew about the girls.”

My hope is that Leader Jeffries announces his Members will stay in town until the Thanksgiving recess, and hold shadow hearings, daily press conferences, etc. You know, go to work while the cowardly House Republicans run away, again…..

This was my post from last Friday - “more ambitious.” Yep. For the good of the country Democrats simply must become more ambitious now.

Some Data For The Path Forward Conversation - Some data I am spending time with right now, and will eventually put into a more cogent memo soon:

1 - The Economist/YouGov most important issue (aggregated):

• 42% - Inflation/Jobs/Economy

• 14% - Civil rights, civil liberties

• 11% - Health Care

2 - Dems now lead in most polls on who is more trusted on the economy (top issue, we have an advantage, need to be spending more time here). Here’s Gallup:

3 - This morning the U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey just came back with its lowest reading in the 65 year history of the survey:

4 - Threats to democracy/No Kings/corruption/abuse of power central to driving Dem intensity (volunteers, money, turnout = winning):

Looking ahead to next year’s midterms, Democrats appear to have a very early advantage: 47% of registered voters say they’d vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, while 42% prefer the Republican. More say they’ve ruled out supporting a Republican (42%) than say the same about a Democrat (35%). And 41% say they would be sending a message that they oppose Trump with their vote, nearly double the 21% who say their vote would be a message of support for the president. Independents break in Democrats’ favor on the generic ballot (44% to 31% for Republicans, with 19% saying they wouldn’t pick either right now).

Registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents are far more likely than Republican-aligned voters to say they are extremely motivated to vote next year (67% compared with 46%). Those Democratic-aligned voters who consider the state of democracy to be a top concern are perhaps the most fired up within the party: 82% in that group say they are deeply motivated to vote, compared with 57 % among Democratic-aligned voters who call the economy their top concern.

CNN’s poll results suggest that the Democratic Party’s ongoing internal image troubles may not necessarily translate into defections at the ballot box. Democratic-aligned voters remain far less fond of their own party (65% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party) than Republican-aligned voters (80% have a favorable view of the GOP), but even those Democratic-aligned voters with a negative view of the party are almost universally behind the Democratic candidate in their district (93%) and broadly motivated to vote (71% say they are extremely motivated).

5 - Democrats need to have a big internal conversation about the importance of perceptions of strong and weak in how people construct their understanding of candidates and the party brand. Look at this data. We have to do better.

Here is that 2024 Exit Poll data I often cite. The acid test here is not just whether voters believe we are strong, but whether we are strong enough to deliver for them once in power (can bring needed change):

So, yes, looking like we caved and ran from a tough fight is not helping us address this structural problem with our brand. I think a central reason we had such big margins in the election last week is that people saw us fighting for them all across the country on things that mattered. Has to be who we are - for people are pissed, and we need to keep fighting……

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!

Friends, I’ll be doing a lot of live and in-person events recapping in the coming days, and will be hosting many guests here as well. Check our Events page for the latest schedule and links. Recordings of these events can always be found under the Podcast tab on the main Hopium site and on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify too.

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $51k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $93k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring interview with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $237k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $191,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas and watch interviews with the state Party Chairs of all 5 states | Donate to all five state parties | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!

Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our emerging four part agenda.

Contact your Senators and House Member and urge them to:

1. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world

2. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities

3. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

4. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.

Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.

We do the work to make it so.

- Simon