More Bad Econ Data, Trump's Desperation Grows, Traveling With Natalie

We got a few new encouraging Senate polls in the past few days.....

Morning all. While I am away with family this week there were a few things I wanted to make sure got to you today…….

Bad Retail Sales, Bad Consumer Sentiment Data - On Friday we got further confirmation of the cratering of public sentiment after the war restarted and gas prices surged again. From Yahoo Finance:

US retail sales gave their weakest showing in more than a year and consumer sentiment plunged, data showed Friday, as households battered by fallout from President Donald Trump’s Iran war curbed spending and raised their expectations of inflation.

Total US retail sales were down 0.6 percent in July from the previous month, at $763.6 billion, said the Department of Commerce.

A new US consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan showed confidence dropped by around eight percent in August, ending two months of gains.

Gas prices are up forty cents since early July:

In a New Republic podcast and article out this morning Greg Sargent makes this related point:

As our military is degraded, our sailors starve, and our global image is battered, Trump continues to give us reason to question whose side he is really on and whether he should be doing something else with his time. In a new, worrisome post last night Trump calls North Korea, who has sent troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine/Europe and is part of the Russian-Iranian global alliance, “unthreatening and respectful”:

As his failed war keeps failing our addled, desperate, and vainglorious leader spend the weekend posting AI images like this one. A very scared man needs his bunker!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, their desperation and failure continues to drive them to do extraordinary things. This weekend, just days after getting sworn in our venal Attorney General, along with the FBI Director, spoke at a partisan political rally full of cops in New York for Bruce Blakeman, the GOP nominee for Governor. As many have commented this event crossed every line and looked like something from Nazi Germany. It’s another reason why we must prepare do everything we can to protect our elections this fall and work to ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January:

As we discussed in last week’s talk recent polling has made clear that the country has had it with all this Trumpian bullshit and is putting their faith back in us (hence the growing desperation and flailing). The resumption of the war has pushed the election towards us. As one GOP operative put it a few weeks ago Republicans had started to prepare for “the bottom to drop out" and things have indeed gotten worse for them. In the past few days we’ve seen a slew of new Senate poll that confirm our continued opportunity. Fox News released new polls showing Brown up 8 in Ohio and Troy Jackson up 2 in Maine. A new left-leaning polling in Alaska has Mary Peltola up 2, and while a new Fox News poll of Michigan has El-Sayed down 4 a new Senate Majority PAC poll has him up 6.

Here’s our updated Senate polling round up, with the caveat that due to the decline in legacy media we have far less independent polling than in the past so coming to a clear understanding of where we are is a bit more challenging this cycle:

Today’s FiftyPlusOne’s forecast has up with a 90% chance of winning the House, and a 56% chance of winning the Senate (we got a shot peeps!):

Finally, here is another Jon Ossoff clip that has coursed through social media this weekend. This one talks about how Trump “just wants to travel with Natalie.” Ossoff’s characterizations of Trump’s failures and betrayals are among the best of anyone in our family. The good Senator from Georgia deserves all the buzz he is getting:

Yes, it is that time everyone…..

Time To Go Win Some Elections!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Our Winning The House Campaign - Donate | $1,096,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - Donate | $299,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, recent primaries and need a bit more help.

Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here.

Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $14,100 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).

Winning The Senate - $702,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).

Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

Winning Georgia - $31,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party

Winning Iowa - $32,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party

Winning Maine - $81,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Maine fund splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman

Winning Ohio - $189,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $652,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

A Few More Things To Do

Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year. Learn more about how our political battlefield is changing and how we can best protect our elections this November and ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January. Bring our Resolutions Project to your community. Fight for Hopium’s Agenda and let’s also embrace Leader Jeffries’ new agenda, “Fighting For An Affordable America.” Become a paid subscriber to Hopium to help us grow this community of proud, plucky patriots.

In the spirit if informing and not inflaming I’ve set up a new page to help us learn more about the Democratic Socialists Of America (DSA). Additionally, my friend Halie Soifer, the very capable CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, has written a very thoughtful piece with recommendations for how Abdul El-Sayed can address the very real concerns about his candidacy in the Jewish community.

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.