Putin Breaks a Ceasefire, Trump Stumbles and Retreats in the Gulf, Democrats Overperform in a Special Election (Again)

Dr. Phillips O'Brien joins us live at 2pm ET today to talk Ukraine, Iran and more.....

Morning all. A few days ago Putin asked for a cease fire for May 9th so he could have his annual “Victory Day” parade in Moscow, one now threatened by Ukaine’s improving drone strike capacity.

As we discussed on Monday this has been read around the world as a sign of profound and perhaps shocking weakness. Zelenskyy responded by inviting Putin to build trust for May 9th by initiating a cease fire last night. Of course Putin could not accede to Zelenskyy’s offer - just as Trump can never appear to be granting concessions to Iran - and last night Russia attacked Ukraine over 1,800 times. Here’s Zelenskyy this morning on Twitter:

Trump is showing similar levels of struggle and weakness in the Gulf, walking away from their new ridiculous “Project Freedom” hours after Rubio and Hegseth did press conferences announcing a new stage in the war (LOLOLOLOLOL):

Donald Trump announced he is pausing ‘Project Freedom’, the US effort to guide stranded vessels out of the strait of Hormuz, so he can finalise a deal with Iran, but added that his blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place.

Trump’s abrupt change of plan was declared in a social media post, saying he was pausing the effort for “a short period” to give space for US efforts to finalise a settlement with Iran to end the war.

Despite Project Freedom only launching Monday, Trump said he’d made the move based “on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran”. Iran is yet to comment.

The announcement came after military leaders and the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, insisted a ceasefire in the Middle East was still holding and that – while the conflict is not resolved – the initial major US military operation against Iran has concluded.

“The operation is over. Epic Fury – as the president notified Congress – we’re done with that stage of it,” Rubio said.

Rubio told the White House press briefing Tuesday that for peace to be achieved, Iran must agree to Trump’s demands on its nuclear program and also agree to reopen the strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s pausing of Project Freedom appeared to run counter to comments from Rubio and the US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, only hours earlier.

In a Pentagon news conference, Hegseth said the US had successfully secured a path through the waterway and that hundreds of commercial ships were lining up to pass through. “We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this ​fact. They said they control the strait. They do not,” he said.

Rubio later said the US was working to get ships through the strait as a “favour to the world … because we’re the only ones that can”. As Rubio was addressing reporters, a cargo vessel in the strait reported it had been struck by a unknown projectile.

Meanwhile gas prices in the US continue to rise:

Democrats saw another dramatic overpeformance in a state legislative special election last night as In Chedrick Greene won an open state senate seat in Michigan by more than 19 points in a district Vice President Harris won by less than a point:

The Washington Post has a new, related front page story, Iran has hit far more U.S. military assets than reported, satellite images show (gift link). The story is full of remarkable images of extensive damage across many US installations in the region. A few excerpts from this jawdropping article:

Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.

The threat of air attacks rendered some of the U.S. bases in the region too dangerous to staff at normal levels, and commanders moved most of the personnel from these sites out of the range of Iranian fire at the start of the war, officials have said…..

………..

Satellite imagery of the Middle East is unusually difficult to acquire at present. Two of the largest commercial providers, Vantor and Planet, have complied with requests from the U.S. government — their biggest customer — to limit, delay or indefinitely withhold the publication of imagery of the region while the war is ongoing, making it difficult or impossible to assess Iran’s counterstrikes. Those restrictions began less than two weeks into the war.

Iranian state-affiliated news agencies, however, have from the start regularly published high-resolution satellite imagery on their social media accounts that claimed to document damage to U.S. sites.

For this examination — one of the first comprehensive public accounts of the damage to U.S. facilities in the region — The Post reviewed more than 100 high-resolution Iranian-released satellite images. The Post verified the authenticity of 109 of the those images by comparing them with lower-resolution imagery from the European Union’s satellite system, Copernicus, as well as high-resolution images from Planet where available. The Post excluded 19 Iranian images from the damage analysis because comparisons with the Copernicus imagery were inconclusive. No Iranian imagery was found to have been manipulated.

………

Experts who reviewed The Post’s analysis said the damage at the sites suggested that the U.S. military had underestimated Iran’s targeting abilities, not adapted sufficiently to modern drone warfare and left some bases under-protected.

“The Iranian attacks were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel, who reviewed the Iranian images at The Post’s request. The Post previously revealed how Russia provided Iran with intelligence to target U.S. forces.

…….

The images show that airstrikes damaged or destroyed what appear to be numerous barracks, hangars or warehouses at more than half of the U.S. bases that The Post reviewed.

“The Iranians have deliberately targeted accommodation buildings across multiple sites with the intent to inflict mass casualties,” said William Goodhind, an investigator with the open-access research project Contested Ground who reviewed the imagery. “It is not just equipment, fuel storage and air base infrastructure under fire, but also soft targets, such as gyms, food halls and accommodation.”

Neither Trump nor Putin are winning their reckless, ill-considered wars. Somehow getting them to end, and for the aggressors to withdraw is arguably the single most important project of the free nations and free peoples of the world today. Which is why Democrats must make clear to Trump that if he wants his Pentagon funded he will need to re-commit the US to Europe and winning the war in Ukraine:

If Trump Wants The Pentagon Funded The United States Must Side With Europe And Ukraine - Not Russia

Historian Phillips O’Brien is coming by today at 2pm ET for a live discussion of the latest in the Middle East and Ukraine. You can join us by clicking on this link. We will also be discussing it all in tonight’s paid subscriber get together (register here).

Yes, It’s Time To Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Rallying For Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin For Georgia Supreme Court - This is our next big opportunity to make good trouble all. The Election is May 19th, early voting has begun, and we have 2 great candidates, Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who have a serious shot at flipping two GOP-held Supreme Court seats. Watch our new interview with Jordan and Rankin, donate to their campaign, and volunteer no matter where you are! In just a week we’ve already raised $25,200 towards our $50,000 goal!

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $638,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

For more on the strategic importance of our pro-democracy movement “expanding the map” see these recent Hopium posts and videos:

• Callais, 2026 Senate, 2032 - Democrats Are Now Operating With A Very Different National Map (New Video, Written Analysis)

• Eric Croft, Alaska Dem Party Chair, Returns To Hopium To Talk “Expanding The Map” and Winning This November

• A Report From The Maine Democratic Party Convention

James Talarico For Texas - $66,100 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue.

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $88,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue.

Winning Ohio - $134,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde.

This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $551,200 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds.

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $109,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue.

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $172,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; and learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year.

Here’s our working, evolving Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and elections to win, together! - Simon