Morning all. A few things before we get into this week’s strategy talk…..
House Foreign Affairs Ranking Member Rep. Greg Meeks was able to secure a 218th signature on a discharge petition that will bring his bill supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia to the House floor in early June. This is something this community has worked towards for many months. It’s incredibly encouraging news, and will be a significant repudiation of Trump’s rancid appeasement of Putin if we can pass it.
According to news reports the US intelligence community has assessed that Iran’s military is in far stronger shape than Trump and the regime have represented, and China has gained a significant geopolitical advantage over the US due to our failed war:
A confidential U.S. intelligence analysis details how China is exploiting the war in Iran to maximize its advantage over the United States across military, economic, diplomatic and other fields, said two U.S. officials who have read the report.
The assessment, the officials said, was produced this week for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, and has raised alarm within the Pentagon about the geopolitical costs of Washington’s standoff with Tehran as President Donald Trump enters high-stakes talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
The NYT has sobering reporting from Beijing about how Trump’s failure in Iran is being seen in China:
In Beijing, commentators have cast the Iran war as a confounding, unforced error of which China can now take advantage. Interviews with several foreign policy analysts in the Chinese capital on Wednesday showed how the summit is turning into the biggest test yet of the extent to which the Iran war has shifted the United States’ standing in the world.
“You are squandering your hegemony everywhere,” said Sun Chenghao, a specialist in U.S.-China relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “The U.S. is damaging its own image, its credibility.”
……
“Trump made a similar mistake as Putin made,” said Da Wei, the director of Tsinghua’s Center for International Security and Strategy, comparing Mr. Trump’s inflated expectations in bombing Iran to the bungled invasion of Ukraine by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. “When can the U.S. declare it won the war? I don’t know what the criteria is.”
David Lynch has a banger of a story in the Washington Post today, Trump’s policies are working together to hike prices, as midterms approach:
President Donald Trump promised to bring inflation down. Yet he keeps doing things that push prices up.
…….
In the first months of his second term, Trump made progress on inflation. But after notching consecutive monthly declines in early 2025, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric began rising once the president unveiled his most aggressive tariffs. Never since has it been as low as it was in April 2025.
“You have to place the vast majority of the responsibility on the administration’s policy decisions. The Fed was on track to hit the 2 percent [price stability] target and then came the tariffs and everything else has ensued,” Holtz-Eakin said.
Review yesterday’s Hopium post for a recap of the incredibly ugly inflation reports we’ve gotten this week:
The early vote in Georgia continues to be very encouraging for us. From Daniel Nichanian:
Remarkably heavy turnout from Democrats in Georgia today. Today alone, roughly 50,000 people went to vote in the Democratic primary, while roughly 35,500 voted in the GOP primary. (1300 just voted in the nonpartisan races.) That’s a turnout advantage of 16 percentage points today.
Overall, of the roughly 700K Georgians who have voted so far, 55% have picked the Dem ballot and 44% the GOP ballot.
As GA Dem Chair Charlie Bailey told us last week we’ve haven’t seen more Dems vote in a statewide primary in Georgia in over twenty years. In our new discussion Dr. Amy Acton talks about the record setting Dem turnout we saw in Ohio last week. Something is in the air people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We got two polls from California yesterday:
With the primary now only a few weeks away it appears likely that the general election match up will be the ridiculous GOP candidate Steve Hilton and either Becerra or Steyer, though it is possible now that we could end up with Becerra and Steyer and no Republican. The chance of it being two Rs who get through has now become very, very remote.
I share all these stories this morning for it all goes to the heart of what I discussed in my talk last night - yes, what the Rs have found is a way to steal more Congressional seats, giving them a brief respite from the unrelenting bad news and terrible polling data; but the overall political landscape has gotten far worse for them in recent weeks. Trump’s war has failed, and he and America are far weaker today; his tariffs were declared illegal (again); the new inflation data was much worse than expected, and the chance of inflation returning to a comfortable place before the election has become very, very unlikely; the damage from their health care cuts are starting to be felt far more acutely; their close, vital ally Orban fell, and Magyar has become a new potent global symbol of democracy; like Trump’s war Putin’s war is failing too, further weakening the Putin-Trump-MAGA political project; Trump’s poll numbers keep dropping, we keep winning elections and overperforming everywhere; and we could very well flip two Supreme Court seats in Georgia on Tuesday, something that will be rightly seen as a powerful rebuke of the corruption of the courts by Trump, Roberts and their allies.
It is also critical that we see the right’s spasm of racist gerrymandering as a sign of weakness, desperation, and fear, not strength and confidence. They are scared of the American people and of us. As they should be, for these MAGAs have done more harm to the country and to our democracy than perhaps any other political leaders in our history, and the American people are right to be pissed, highly motivated to vote and throw them out of office.
Despite their illicit gaming of our electoral system Democrats are still favored to win the House, perhaps by not the same margins, and the Senate is still very much in play. We knew taking power away from Trump and the Rs this year would be hard so what is happening now is nothing new. We must stay resolute and determined, and keep working as hard as we can. This remains a year of extraordinary opportunity for us, one where we can expand our maps and win in red places and red states where we have not been regularly competitive in many, many years….
So watch my talk, share it with others, and now, my friends, it is time to put our heads down and……..
Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
Rallying For Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin For Georgia Supreme Court - This is our next big opportunity to make good trouble all. The Election is May 19th, early voting has begun, and we have 2 great candidates, Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who have a serious shot at flipping two GOP-held Supreme Court seats. Watch our new interview with Jordan and Rankin, donate to their campaign, hear about the race from the great GA Dem Party Chair Charlie Bailey, and volunteer no matter where you are!
We’ve now raised $46,500 towards our $50,000 goal. Amazing work everyone!!!!!!!!!
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $677,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here.
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $92,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue.
James Talarico For Texas - $70,100 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue.
Winning Ohio - $142,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, our candidate for Governor Dr. Amy Acton, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde.
This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $560,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds.
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $112,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue.
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $174,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff.
Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield
There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; and learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year.
Here’s our working, evolving Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:
Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions
Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia
Roll back the new, illegal tariffs
Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us
Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere
Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people
Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation
End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health
Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable
Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and elections to win, together! - Simon
