Morning all. Author, analyst, fellow Substacker, and former Ohio Democratic Party Chair David Pepper join us live at 11am ET this morning. Click on this link a minute or so before 11am to join our conversation and a reminder that you can find a list and links to all of our upcoming events under the Events tab on the main Hopium site.
Yesterday the US Senate voted 51-47 to repeal Trump’s global “reciprocal” tariffs. It was the third time in the last three days the Senate had voted to end a piece of Trump’s destructive tariff regime. These three votes are, without question, the most significant Congressional break from Trump in his second term. As we discussed yesterday in my weekly video and written analysis little cracks can become bigger cracks, and this week we’ve seen significant cracks grow in his Congressional support in things that matter to him.
I want to thank everyone who has worked to help bring about this critical rebuke of Trump. This community has been fighting these tariffs since Trump began whimsically levying them in early May. And while we have much more work to do we take and celebrate the wins when they come here and we had important and meaningful wins this week.
In my new conversation with Arizona Congresswoman Freshman Class Yassamin Ansari (transcript, video recording above, link to official bio) we talk about the very real cracks that have begun to form in the House. Rep. Ansari argues that a central reason why the cowardly Speaker sent his Members home early in July and has kept them from meeting these past six weeks is his fear of permanently losing control of his factional, tiny majority. Here is what the Congresswoman said in our discussion about Marjorie Taylor Greene’s dramatic break from Trump and Johnson in recent weeks:
She’s seeing that the dam is going to break. She’s seeing how deeply unpopular at the end of the day these policies are. Trump is wrecking the economy… to me I think a good reference is the fact that he’s underwater even on immigration now, which is the issue that he’s always been the most popular on, and he’s been underwater for months because of the overreach of ICE… all of it… I absolutely agree that I think Mike Johnson knows that his days are likely numbered, and he is doing everything he can to not just protect Trump, but protect himself, sacrificing millions and millions and millions of Americans along the way for that power trip.
This interview is a very timely and insightful window into what is happening inside the broken House right now and encourage you to get to it when you can. Rep. Ansari is the President of the Democratic Freshman class and sits on the House Oversight Committee, which is leading the effort to get the Epstein files released and create accountability for the many, many victims. Her recounting of the Committee’s work these past few months in our interview is very compelling.
The NYT and WSJ broke open a new chapter in the Epstein scandal last night, putting even more pressure on the cowardly Speaker to re-open the House and get back to business (gift link):
Weeks after Jeffrey Epstein died in federal custody in 2019 awaiting prosecution on sex-trafficking charges, JPMorgan Chase filed a report alerting the U.S. government to tens of millions of dollars of potentially suspicious transactions involving him and prominent Wall Street and business figures.
The so-called suspicious activity report that JPMorgan filed identified transactions with Leon Black, the co-founder of private equity firm Apollo Global Management; Glenn Dubin, a well-known hedge fund manager; the lawyer Alan Dershowitz; and trusts controlled by Leslie Wexner, the retail tycoon.
The nature of the transactions, as well as Mr. Epstein’s role in them, is unclear.
JPMorgan said in its report that it was flagging about 4,700 transactions, totaling more than $1 billion, because they were potentially related to reports of human trafficking involving Mr. Epstein. It also mentioned Mr. Epstein’s wire transfers to Russian banks and sensitivities around “his relationships with two U.S. presidents.” Mr. Epstein at times was close with President Trump and former President Bill Clinton.
None of the men mentioned in the report have been charged with crimes in connection to Mr. Epstein.
The report was included in hundreds of pages of previously sealed court records that JPMorgan released on Thursday at the instruction of a federal judge, Jed S. Rakoff. He ordered the documents unsealed in response to requests from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.
I asked the Congresswoman to join us for I think, despite being a freshman, she has become one of the more powerful communicators in the House, part of a new wave of social media savvy modern Democratic leaders. Her work on behalf of Arizona families being terrorized by ICE has been particularly inspiring. Watch this new video she released yesterday. She’s just really good at this:
Excited to introduce you to Rep. Ansari today and hope she can become a regular here at Hopium.
Polling Roundup - We got four new polls in New Jersey yesterday. Steady as she goes people!
Sherrill 54%-44% (+10) YouGov
Sherrill 51%-43% (+8) Quinnipiac
Sherrill 52%-45% (+7) Fox
Sherrill 50%-48% (+2) Emerson/Nexstar (right-aligned)
While right-aligned polls continue to show a close race, every independent poll taken in the past two months has Sherrill up by at least 5 points. Sherrill actually gained ground in the Quinnipiac, Fox, and Emerson polls from their last ones, something that would not surprising given her financial and ground/GOTV advantages. Recent polls in Virginia continue to show Spanberger with a commanding lead and the AG race a toss up. Need to run through the tape here everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Washington Post released a new poll on the shutdown yesterday and like every other poll released in since the shutdown began has Trump and Republicans getting blamed for the shutdown:
Blame Trump/GOP 45%
Blame Dems 33%
What intrigued me most about this poll was this data:
36% approve. Only 33% blame the Dems. It’s further evidence of the struggle a weakened and ailing Trump is having - despite their extraordinary information superiority - in rallying the country, and even his own voters, around him and his agenda. Trump’s ceiling has fallen and he is now showing up far more in the 30s/low 40s now than in the mid 40s/50s on the issues that matter to people.
Look at this data from a new national Strength in Numbers poll. It’s almost all 30s and low 40s:
The poll has Trump’s job approval at 41%-56% (-15); Democrats leading in the generic ballot by 7, 46%-39%; and like other recent polling Dems now ahead on job/economy and inflation. Here's G. Elliott Morris’ summary of the findings:
Put simply, voters are frustrated with the direction of the country and do not feel like the incumbent party is representing their interests well. The average American wants the parties to help fix problems they feel every day, especially prices — but not if it means a presidency that bulldozes constitutional constraints on executive powers. Voters say they don’t approve of the way President Trump has expanded those powers, and his approval ratings on most issues — especially the ones voters say are most important to them — are markedly unpopular partly as a result.
In a big shift from 2024, voters now say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy and inflation. Voters are also saying health care and general social spending are more important now than they were in 2024, tilting the policy landscape toward Democrats.
This is why Democrats hold a modest lead on the 2026 House generic ballot, and it’s why the party’s candidates are likely to win in most 2025 off-year races across the country.
Sounds pretty good to me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now……
Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $129k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $221k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $48k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $88k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $225k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $177,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas and watch interviews with all 5 State Party Chairs | Donate to all five state parties | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Hopium members in CA/NJ/NY/PA/VA or wherever you have elections on November 4th - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your name comes off campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world and fully fund SNAP FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please include reports of voting early and consider sending photos of your completed ballot or or your “I’ve voted” sticker to community@hopiumchronicles.com.
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so - Simon
