The Biden Campaign Is Raising Lots Of Money, The Democratic Party Is Strong

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Happy Saturday everyone. Got a few things for you today:

My Interview With The NYTimes - Here’s a free link. If you haven’t read it yet try to take the time to do so this weekend. The article has generated a lot of interest, bringing me on MSNBC twice on Thursday and CNN yesterday morning. It has been rewarding to be able to take our optimistic message to many more people. Here’s a clip from my appearance on Lawrence O’Donnell from Thursday night. It’s was a great discussion - hope you can watch. It’s full of Hopium.

The Biden Campaign Raises Lots Of Money, Has Big Cash and Organizational Advantage 7 Months Out - From the Biden campaign this morning:

Today, Team Biden-Harris announced that it raised more than $187 million in the first quarter of 2024, including more than $90 million in the month of March. This historic fundraising operation continues to break monthly grassroots fundraising records through the first three months of 2024 – an indication of enthusiasm, strength, and Team Biden-Harris’ historic resources heading into the general election. This first quarter raise is nearly double the unprecedented 2023 fourth-quarter haul of $97 million.

The team is also reporting a historic $192 million in cash on hand, the highest total amassed by any Democratic candidate in history at this point in the cycle. Team Biden-Harris’ cash on hand has increased each of the four reporting periods since the president launched his reelection. What that means is that as Team Biden-Harris grows its operation, it continues to also grow its war chest.  

While Trump cozies up to billionaires tonight to raise his money, Team Biden-Harris’ first-quarter haul was driven by the strength of our grassroots support, which continues to grow month over month. March was the campaign’s strongest grassroots fundraising month since launch and the fifth consecutive record-breaking grassroots fundraising month. To date, 1.6 million people have contributed to the campaign.

“The money we are raising is historic, and it’s going to the critical work of building a winning operation, focused solely on the voters who will decide this election – offices across the country, staff in our battleground states, and a paid media program meeting voters where they are,” said Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden-Harris 2024 Campaign Manager. “It’s a stark contrast to Trump’s cash-strapped operation that is funneling the limited and billionaire-reliant funds it has to pay off his various legal fees.”

Friends, together, we are in the process of building the most powerful Democratic political machine that any of us have ever seen. It’s a central reason I am so optimistic about winning this November.

16 Polls Have Biden Up/Other 2024 Election Notes - It’s been a very good week of polling for Joe Biden and the Dems. There are now 16 polls taken since late February showing Biden ahead: (via 538):

• 52-48 Marquette (this week)

• 47-46 Data For Progress (this week)

• 50-48 NPR/Marist (this week)

• 42-40 Big Village (this week)

• 44-42 Morning Consult (this week)

• 48-45 Quinnipiac

• 44-43 Noble Predictive

• 44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)

• 47-45 FAU/Mainstreet

• 44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)

• 46-45 Public Policy Research

• 50-48 Ipsos/Reuters

• 45-44 Civiqs

• 47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation

• 51-49 Emerson

• 43-42 TIPP

Additionally, another measure we look at, the Congressional Generic, which asks the simple question of who you will be supporting for Congress this year, has turned much more blue in recent days. Two more have been added since this graphic below - Economist/YouGov came in at 44-41 Dem, Emerson 46-45):

In 2022 there were polls showing Republicans with an advantage (many paid for or conducted by GOP aligned organizations), and lots of other polls showing the election close and competitive. Many commentators choose to dismiss the polls more favorable to Dems, and focused on those more favorable to Rs. It is how so many fell for the red wave that that never came.

The responsible thing for commentators and analysts to do now, in 2024, is to point out that not all the data is pointing in the same direction; that there are polls favorable to the Rs (like the new WSJ polls) and there are all these other polls favorable to Biden and the Dems. Another responsible thing to do is to point out that in a week of very good polling for Biden and the Dems the one major poll showing good news for Rs - the low-sample size/high margin of error WSJ polls - were paid for by Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trump’s own pollster; and thus centering one’s understanding about the 2024 election around data they provide is, um, not a reasonable thing to do. This is particularly true given Murdoch’s Fox News was found guilty in court of maliciously lying about the 2020 election.

My view is the election is becoming bluer, we are gaining ground. Trump is no longer ahead in the election or favored - saying so is outside the data in front of us. It has long been my view, and the view of the Biden campaign, that as we got deeper into the general election and our coalition started paying more attention, Biden would jump out to a modest lead. That appears to be what is happening now.

I also do not subscribe to the school of thought that the battleground leans more Republican than the popular vote. It may happen. But it didn’t happen in 2022, and the 2024 battleground knows and has repeatedly rejected MAGA. Post Dobbs MAGA had a disastrous showing in the battleground in 2022, and we just don’t know what is going to happen this year. I think Dobbs changed everything, and so comparisons to 2016 or 2020 are in my view very very risky.

Friends, let’s acknowledge that this been a very good week for us - encouraging polling, another great jobs report yesterday, and the Biden campaign has clear, meaningful institutional advantages over Trump. Yes, we have a long way to go in this election, much can and will change, and we have a lot of work to do. But as I write this morning from Washington, DC, in every way imaginable, I would so much rather be us than them.

Upcoming Events - Register Today! - Look forward to seeing folks at these upcoming events, and if you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here.

• Wed, April 10th, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together - Register here

• Thur, April 11th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - updated and fresh - Register here

• Tue, April 16th, 8pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register here

• Thur, April 18th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Maricopa County Democratic Party 100th Anniversary Event (Phoenix) - Buy A Ticket Here

• Sat, April 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Arlington (VA) Democrats Blue Victory Dinner - Buy A Ticket Here

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here are Hopium we channel all the worry we all have about the election into purposeful action. Hopium is a hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will win this November we do the work to make it so. Right now we are in the final push for three must-win projects. Thanks to everyone who has helped out - we’ve blown past our original $100,000 goals for all three:

Donate To and Join The Biden-Harris Campaign - Job 1 this year is defeating Trump. As the general election has begun it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - to get started and become part of the big campaign of 2024.

So far the Hopium community has raised $203,000 from 2,400 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all!

Have you ordered your Biden-Harris lawn sign yet? You can do so here.

Make An Early Investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today!

For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having on the ground.

So far we’ve raised $159,000 from over 2,100 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems - thank you all. You can also learn how to volunteer for the NC Dems from wherever you live here.

Look at what having Anderson at the helm, with resources, means:

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Join me in helping Ruben Gallego in his campaign to become the next Senator from Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Watch my recent interview with Ruben, and please donate today! We have already raised $114,000 from over 1,700 of you - thank you all!

You can volunteer to help Ruben and the AZ Democrats here.

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. We hit our two big March 31st goals - 50,000 overall subscribers and 6,000 paid! Thank you all for helping keep this community growing and the Hopium flowing!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you. Together, we are making a difference - Simon