We’ve learned that some subscribers did not receive yesterday’s post. So I am sending it to everyone this morning, and apologize to those of you who will receive it twice. A regular Sunday post will come later this morning. Happy Sunday! - Simon
Afternoon and morning all. In my new post and video I talk about what I call the “vicious cycle of a failing strongman” - that as the failure of his government becomes impossible to hide, his health declines, and he grows more and more unpopular rather than course correcting Trump and his regime are lashing out, escalating and cracking down. It is a vicious cycle for the country, but also for his political project for as he escalates and acts more like an impulsive despot rather than a President opposition to him grows and his hold over the electorate weakens. In essence he is escalating because he is weak and his powers are ebbing, not because he is strong.
Each time we’ve gotten these spasms of escalation - the invasion of cities, the bombing of Iran, the wanton firing of prominent government officials, the killing of guys on small boats in the Caribbean, the destructive tariffs, the red carpet for Putin, the knocking off of his public critics - we wait and see how the public will react. I believe that Trump believes that these demonstrations of his POWER, STRENGTH and MANLINESS will cause the American people to rally to him. And yet, each time, they don’t, and he grows more unpopular. Here are the major independent polls we received in the past few days after his latest escalation in the aftermath of the tragic killing of Charlie Kirk - soaring levels of unpopularity:
39%-60% (-21) AP-NORC (13 pt drop this month)
39%-57% (-18) Economist/YouGov (5 pt drop this week)
43%-56% (-13) WaPo/Ipsos
It is a pattern that just repeats again and again - he escalates, the public rejects it, and he grows more unpopular and distant from all of us. Here’s our weekly breakout of the Economist/YouGov data. It’s staggering levels of decline and erosion:
G. Elliott Morris has written about the unprecedented intensity of the opposition Trump now faces, intensity that is showing up in our repeated overperformance in special and local elections this year and in our sturdy leads in the NJ and VA gubernatorial races. These new polls also show how incredibly unhappy the country is not just with him but with his agenda, even in areas that the chatter tells us are areas of strength for him. Here’s AP-NORC with crime at (-7) and immigration at (-13):
The new Washington Post-Ipsos poll has similar data - crime -10, immigration -11:
Here’s G. Elliott Morris’s latest issue tracker (and note throughout all polls the issue with the greatest intensity and where Trump performs the worst is inflation/prices/trade/tariffs):
What this shows is that despite their enormous information superiority Trump is not winning any sustained argument with public with perhaps the exception of “border security,” and even there he is not consistently above water in recent polling.
Three more bits of data that suggest Democrats are right to believe they can win a sustained argument with Trump on the budget this fall and winter. From Navigator Research:
From Washington Post-Ipsos:
Also from WaPo-Ipsos:
As we discussed yesterday we’ve seen far more ambition from Congressional Democrats this week then we’ve seen all year, and given the extraordinary budget debate to come, it is the right time for us to be finding a higher gear. While I am optimistic about winning this debate in the coming months with a weakened, failing and unpopular leader, it is my belief we will need to make this debate about more than health care (as important as that is), and create a far more comprehensive and politically potent narrative about why he is failing the country, the American people and our democracy. For more on making our narrative bigger head here, here, and here, and expect more on that from me in the coming days.
Rest up and get ready peeps. The big debate over the budget has begun and it is one we simply must win.
Enjoy My Interview With Eric Croft, The Chairman Of The Alaska Democratic Party - Today I am excited to share the fourth interview in our series with the state party chairs of our new audacious expansion states, this one with Eric Croft, the new Chairman of the Alaska Democratic Party. A recording and transcript are above.
In a lively and informative discussion Chair Croft gives us a terrific overview of the current political landscape in Alaska. It is a state where far right politics has been repeatedly challenged by a coalition of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans, leaving the incumbent MAGA Senator, Dan Sullivan, out of step with Alaska voters and recent trends. Chair Croft expresses confidence that if the most popular Democrat in the state, former Rep. Mary Peltola, gets into the Senate race we will have a shot at making it competitive next year.
As we discuss the investment we are making in the Alaska Democratic Party now, early, will make it far more likely that we can make this race competitive and give us a chance of flipping the Senate next year. The Chair talks very directly about why our investment in Alaska matters and the impact it will have in strengthening their operations next year.
A reminder that one of our Senate SuperPACs went up with this hard-hitting tariff ad in Alaska this week, a sign that the national investment required to make this race competitive has begun:
Get to this interview with Chair Croft when you can. It’s a great on-the-ground report on the current state of our politics in a place that may become one of the central battlegrounds in 2026.
And thanks to everyone who has contributed so far to our Audacious Expansion Fund. We’ve raised over $22,000 so far. Amazing!
Now……
Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $79k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $193k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer
Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $35,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $70k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $202k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium's Audacious Expansion Fund - Investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas - $250,000 goal, $22,000 raised - Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Florida Chair Nikkie Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder | Links to be able support each party individually will be up soon
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Take Action, Express Your Love Of Country And Strengthen Our Democracy Through Good Works (only room for one today!):
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your reps work to
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Block the expansion of ICE, restore due process, defend the 1st Amendment, and end the use of the military on our streets and the occupations of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Let’s keep working hard all for as Robert Frost told us “the best way out is always through” - Simon
