Trump Limps And Stumbles Into What's Going To Be A Very Consequential Week In American Politics

Let's keep working hard everyone and bring this thing home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Morning all. While I am excited you are reading this our most important job today is to the hit the phones or canvass wherever you can. The election is tipping towards us and we just have to do everything we can now to drive turnout tomorrow. That is Job 1 today, and through the evening tomorrow. Links to volunteer for our recommended campaigns are below.

I want to thank everyone who has supported our November candidates, our state parties and our ballot initiatives - our any Democratic candidate at whatever level - as a donor or volunteer. We have talked together about winning the fall, about making it a clear repudiation of Trump and his terrible regime, and the first step in that process is winning these elections tomorrow.

It remains incredible to me that Trump is not out campaigning anywhere for any candidate. It’s a sign of how weak and unpopular he has become. He always needs to be the center of attention and yet here we are in the closing days of the election and he remains cloistered, weary of and distant from the people, as he has become in his decline, his madness, his corrupt “more for me and less for all of you” authoritarianism.

The rash of polls we received in recent days all tell the same story - he and his agenda are incredibly unpopular. Here’s his job approval in polls released since Friday:

• 37%-63% (-26) CNN

• 41%-59% (-18) CBS

• 41%-56% (-15) Strength In Numbers

• 43%-57% (-14) ABC/Washington Post

• 43%-56% (-13) NewsNation

• 43%-55% (-12) NBC News

In the final days of the 2025 election voters across the country had Trump’s struggles and decline thrown hurled at them by all the major television networks.

And it is important to note that the national political dynamic now isn’t just Trump’s struggles - our brand has begun to recover and gain strength, something I discuss and write about at length here. Sherrill and Spanberger have been consistently over 50% in polls this past week. Yes On 50 has a big lead in California. As I’ve been sharing Dems now lead in most polls on the economy and inflation, a seismic shift in our politics. Here’s new Gallup data:

Party ID has also begun to move strongly in our direction:

And while the generic ballot question varies from poll to poll, we are starting to see the upper end of the range grow for Democrats:

• Dems 50% - 42% GOP (+8) NBC News

• Dems 49% - 41% GOP (+8) Strength In Numbers

• Dems 47% - 42% GOP (+5) CNN

• Dems 39% - 34% GOP (+5) Economist/YouGov

CNN just dropped their pre-election poll and it has some data very important to understanding our current moment - disappointment in the Democratic Party is not causing a drop in intensity of our coalition. In fact Democrats are now highly motivated to vote, far more so than Republican voters:

Here’s the CNN analysis of this important data:

Looking ahead to next year’s midterms, Democrats appear to have a very early advantage: 47% of registered voters say they’d vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, while 42% prefer the Republican. More say they’ve ruled out supporting a Republican (42%) than say the same about a Democrat (35%). And 41% say they would be sending a message that they oppose Trump with their vote, nearly double the 21% who say their vote would be a message of support for the president. Independents break in Democrats’ favor on the generic ballot (44% to 31% for Republicans, with 19% saying they wouldn’t pick either right now).

Registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents are far more likely than Republican-aligned voters to say they are extremely motivated to vote next year (67% compared with 46%). Those Democratic-aligned voters who consider the state of democracy to be a top concern are perhaps the most fired up within the party: 82% in that group say they are deeply motivated to vote, compared with 57 % among Democratic-aligned voters who call the economy their top concern.

CNN’s poll results suggest that the Democratic Party’s ongoing internal image troubles may not necessarily translate into defections at the ballot box. Democratic-aligned voters remain far less fond of their own party (65% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party) than Republican-aligned voters (80% have a favorable view of the GOP), but even those Democratic-aligned voters with a negative view of the party are almost universally behind the Democratic candidate in their district (93%) and broadly motivated to vote (71% say they are extremely motivated).

All told, Democrats hold a 12-point advantage among those voters who say they are extremely or very motivated to turn out next year.

Here’s their screaming headline this morning, a reality that will be non-stop in their coverage today and tomorrow:

As I have often said the most powerful force in our politics since 2017 has been fear of and opposition to MAGA. This sentiment drove the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections and is now driving this election cycle too. And it is appropriate - for stopping Trump’s agenda of sabotage, plunder, and betrayal is the most important issue in the country now, with nothing even remotely close.

We lost last year in part due to our failure to evoke this fear in the 2024 electorate adequately, something you can see in this data from the Exit Polls - first time voters, who needed to be educated about the dangers of Trump, and who had not been voting against MAGA in these previous elections, broke decisively for Trump:

Part of what is driving Trump’s precipitous decline now is that these voters, and others who wandered into his coalition, have become fully aware this year of the dangers and harms of Trumpism. It is their lived experience now. Look at how his coalition has unraveled:

Our understanding of how we “win the fall” has been to win these elections and then in the showdown over their budget and agenda that follows force Trump to course correct and retreat. If we can do that it will send a clear message to the American people and the world that the tide against our terrible leader has begun to truly turn.

I write that this is going to be a consequential week for if we have the election we all want to have it will put pressure on the Rs to begin negotiating over the shutdown and their broader destructive agenda. As we’ve been discussing meaningful cracks have begun to appear in Trump’s Congressional support as his political decline and governing failures become impossible to ignore. The loss of the three big Senate tariffs votes last week was the biggest public break from Trump we’ve seen from Republicans so far this year. Courts are forcefully challenging him across the board, including on his decision to deny SNAP benefits to 42 million people; the Supreme Court takes up his tariffs on Wednesday; he has dismissed the House for months now for he fears what it may do to him when it returns; he tore down the fucking East Wing and is building himself a gilded, imperial ballroom; and I don’t think Republicans in Congress are going to allow the Trump to pretend the War Powers Act doesn’t exist.

He has gone too far; pushed us all beyond our limits; he’s acting way too crazy; it isn’t working; people are pissed; he and his agenda have become incredibly unpopular; cracks have begun to appear in his Congressional support; and we need to use all this to force a retreat, a course correction, by this terrible regime in the coming weeks.

But the first step in this process, in this incredibly important opportunity, is to make tomorrow’s elections everything we need them to be. So, now my friends,

Let’s To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $131k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $222k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

• Yes on 50 (CA) - Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party daily phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $49k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $88k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $234k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $182,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas and watch interviews with the state Party Chairs of all 5 states | Donate to all five state parties | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!

Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.

For those who can please vote early, today, not tomorrow. When you vote early your name comes off campaign GOTV rolls allowing our campaigns to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.

Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:

1. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world and fully fund SNAP FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities

3. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

4. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.

Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please include reports of voting early and consider sending photos of your completed ballot or or your “I’ve voted” sticker to community@hopiumchronicles.com.

Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.

We do the work to make it so - Simon