Trumpism Feels Increasingly Broken, And He Weakened And Diminished

We have primaries today in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota - good luck everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Happy Tuesday everyone. Been talking a lot of late about Trump’s racking up the losses on everything from Iran to his ballroom to his ICE funding bill to his slush fund, and how he had become a weakened and diminished figure in Washington and around the world (here, here). Let’s review some headlines from this morning, and just note how much of media narrative has become about some form of Trumpian failure and his ebbing powers. THE STORY has become his weakness and struggle:

NYT Home Page

Washington Post homepage

The Washington Post homepage

For Trump the growing perception of his failing/weakness/struggle is a very big problem for being strong/winning/successful is the foundation of his brand. Everything else is built on top of it, and if you take it away what you are left with is something very ugly and impossible to sell to the American people. It’s also why we often talk here about how Democrats need to take the strong/weak, winning/losing, successful/failure dimension in our politics far more seriously, for it is may be as important to people’s understanding of a candidate or party as most of the big issues we focus on each election cycle.

In 2024 that he was winning and a winner - in part garnered through heavily advertised right-aligned, favorable polling and prediction markets data - I think played a big role in helping late deciding, lower information voters break his way. From the 2024 Exit Polls:

This growing perception of his weakness matters for it will lead to further defiance of him and his agenda, as we are now seeing from Congressional Republicans on the slush fund, the ballroom, Iran, and Russia; and in the increasing ambition and courage of judges across the country.

Here’s how Punchbowl News described this dynamic today:

President Donald Trump is suddenly taking losses from his own friends and allies, especially on Capitol Hill.

GOP lawmakers are bucking Trump on his White House ballroom, shelving plans to spend $1 billion to secure the new facility and other areas of the presidential compound.

The “Trump battleships” are steaming into a wave of skepticism at the House Armed Services Committee as lawmakers prepare to mark up the FY2027 defense authorization bill this week. (All puns intended.)

The House may vote this week on a discharge petition for a Ukrainian aid bill that Trump is certain to oppose. Several dozen House Republicans could back the measure anyway.

And after Trump — bogged down in negotiations to end the war with Iran — said Israel had agreed to halt its military assault against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared he’d continue IDF operations in the southern part of the country. Trump reportedly yelled at Netanyahu over the offensive.

Most prominently, Republicans are also in the process of killing Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, a direct rebuke to the president.

Trump and Hill Republicans are trapped in a dangerous paradox. Trump’s political endorsement is worth more than ever in GOP primaries, yet his legislative agenda and fixation on personal projects are growing more toxic heading into the fall campaign season. As more Republicans move past their primaries, they’re suddenly finding it advantageous to oppose him.

Weaponization-lite. Senate Republicans remain far short of the votes needed to begin floor consideration of their $70 billion reconciliation bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol. GOP leaders will make a decision today about whether it’s possible to pass the bill this week, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely.

At least a dozen GOP senators said Monday that the White House’s attempt to quell the uproar over Trump’s “anti-weaponization” fund wasn’t enough to win their support for advancing the immigration-centric package — something that should unify them.

As he is weak now we must be strong, and this week we are fighting for these four things in Congress (please make your calls everyone):

• Pass HR 2913, the Ukraine Support Act

• Pass the war powers resolution in the House, reining in Trump’s failed war

• No to the big Senate ICE/CPB funding bill that gives DHS years of funding with no reform of the out of control agency

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

And there is also this dangerous outrage, new this morning - Trump just made Bill Pulte, a ridiculous political hack, the Acting Director of National Intelligence. It’s a shocking misjudgment that is going to only further weaken his already battered standing on the Hill and with what’s left of our allies around the world. Coming in a week where he may facing - and lose - Congressional votes on both Ukraine and Iran this will be seen on the Hill as a huge, reckless misstep, from a regime that feels like it is unraveling right now.

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracking poll was just released and look at all this evidence of Trumpian failure. Note he’s 21%-71%, -50 points, with independent voters, -34 with Hispanics and -35 with 18-29 year olds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Roy Cooper released the first ad of his campaign. Yes, my friends, the general election is here and the ads are going to start flying now:

Six states have primaries today - California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Good luck to everyone who has a candidate you are fighting for, and thanks to everyone who support Rebecca Bennett in her campaign to flip NJ-7 blue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now, my friends, because he is weak and we need to be strong it is……

Time To Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $751,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here.

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We are off to a great start here people!

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This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

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Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and an election to win, together! - Simon