Morning all. Last night the proud, plucky patriots of this wonderful community got together for our weekly gathering. You can find a video recording and rough transcript of my talk and the Q and A that followed above.
My bottom line message to all of you this week - things are bad for Trump and the Rs now and they are likely to get worse; his grip over his party is loosening not tightening, which is a deeply dangerous development for an epically corrupt politician; Republicans know how bad it is and are going to do “whatever it takes” to stay in power; while this is clearly a year of opportunity for us we need to put our heads down and fight like hell to have the election we all want to have this November.
Let’s review some data……
One of the three main gauges of inflation was released this morning and like the other two it showed prices just continuing to rise, and the clear harm both the war and his tariffs have done to the economy. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index rose 0.4 percent in April and 3.8% over the last 12 months, almost double the Fed target of 2.0 annual growth:
While Trump’s approval rating keeps hitting new lows across all measures what has the Republicans really freaked out is that his many failures and soaring unpopularity are starting to manifest in the candidate polling across the country. Here’s the Real Clear Politics Generic Ballot tracker. This tracker was +7.2 Dem on Election Day 2018 in an election we won by 8.6 points. It is 7.8 today, and look at the trend lines:
Here is a snapshot of recent Senate polling. If these results hold the Senate flips to the Democrats:
Paxton’s win was not just soul-crushing for Senate Republicans, it’s creating a deeper divide between Trump and Congressional Republicans; it’s going to hurt the GOP brand across the country and make our “corruption” arguments far easier to make; it’s also going to cost them unbelievable amounts of money, money they would rather be spending in all those other states above. Here’s Politico this morning:
Republicans are bracing for a Texas-sized cash drain.
After Attorney General Ken Paxton’s win over Sen. John Cornyn on Tuesday, nine state and national GOP strategists and donors told POLITICO they fear that their already record-breaking Senate primary will become an even more costly general election campaign — one that siphons party resources from key battlegrounds.
Some of them estimate the race could force the party to spend as much as $150 million for Paxton in a state that Republicans never expected to be truly competitive. A Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas since 1994.
But Paxton, a polarizing figure who many national GOP donors have been hesitant to embrace given his extensive baggage, is facing off against state Rep. James Talarico, a prolific fundraiser and candidate widely viewed as a rising star within the Democratic Party, setting up a potential once-in-a-generation clash in the Lone Star State. And everything is bigger in Texas — including the cost of running a campaign.
“We’re a big state, we have a lot of people, 30 million plus Texans, we have 20 media markets,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican consultant who ran Cornyn’s 2014 campaign. “So it takes millions of dollars to not only run television and radio ads, but to reach the population through mail and digital ads and text messages.”
One GOP donor compared the late stages of the Texas runoff — which came to a head when President Donald Trump issued his 11th hour endorsement of Paxton — to a “horror movie.”
“It means that $100 million will have to go to bail out the Texas seat instead of helping win seats in Maine, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and elsewhere,” said the person, who, like many others in this article, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Last night will go down as one of the worst self-inflicted political wounds of all-time.”
Be sure to watch my new interview with Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder to learn why 2026 has become a year of opportunity for us in Texas.
A new bi-partisan poll of Hispanic voters by the advocacy organization Unidos shows Democrats with the opportunity to re-establish our traditional +30 margins with Hispanics this year - a big deal in battleground races throughout the country, including Texas. We even have a chance to win the Florida Cuban dominated Hispanic vote this November - also a big deal:
For us getting back to +30 with Hispanics is an opportunity - not a foregone conclusion - for look at how many Hispanic voters are new to the electorate, and thus not yet reliable voters, particularly in a mid-term. They need to hear from us:
A few other things we talked about last night…….
Trump has lost the Iran war, and no longer has an easy way to bring it to a close. Both and he and Putin, running buddies, are now losing their ill-considered wars - another sign of greater MAGA’s increasing political struggles.
As we saw yesterday with Talarico the Rs are going to go scorched earth against all of our candidates. Every one. We have to better prepared for how they are going to attack us, for with Talarico they are not engaging on issues, they are attacking on the two central fronts they used successfully against Harris - he is not like us, and is weak. That’s their politics. Weird/freak/not one of us and weak not strong. This narrative will be repeated in every race in the country for it worked for them in 2024, and it is really all that they have this time.
The Rs have expanded their new illicit campaign to meddle in our House primaries and help what they view as weaker candidates advance by dropping enormous new buys in CA-22 against Jasmeet Bains and NJ-07 against Rebecca Bennett. As we helped Johnny Garcia successfully overcome huge GOP spend for the virulent antisemite Maureen Galindo this week in TX-35, we are endorsing Rebecca Bennett in NJ-07 and will be sharing a new interview we’ve done with her this afternoon.
Finally, I shared my thoughts on the DNC after action report. To sum - it should have been cleaned up and released last year, and Ken Martin is right to take responsibility for not having run a better process. However, the memo he released with the report last week is a thoughtful summary of the broader conversation we’ve all been having about lessons learned not just from 2024 but from over the past 20 years of our politics. I agree with his big insight - that as a national party we got too narrow, didn’t invest and compete in enough places, left too many core party areas of responsibility to others - and it is important that we do not allow the confusion and controversy over the bungled report interfere with the necessary conversation we need to have about ways of making ourselves better and stronger, and more capable of taking back power and keeping it (what we do here everyday at Hopium!!!!).
I strongly encourage everyone to read Chair Martin’s memo for yourself, along with a new Hill op-ed by Hopium community member, Tim Wegener, Don’t punish Ken Martin for flubbing Dems’ 2024 autopsy.
That’s what we talked about last night. It was an action packed discussion, and folks had great questions. Enjoy the video, share it with others you think might be interested, and now, my fellow patriots, it is time…..
To Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $733,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here.
Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $26,400 raised ($45,000 incl dedicated Johnny Garcia funds), $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). More on this exciting new initiative in the coming days…
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $96,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
James Talarico For Texas - $79,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Winning Ohio - $149,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with US Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, our candidate for Governor Dr. Amy Acton, Lt. Gov candidate David Pepper, and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde
This total includes $21,000 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $574,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years
Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $114,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $179,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff
Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and these great candidates to elect, together! - Simon
