Trump's Failed War Keeps Failing, Vance Debases Himself In Hungary, The General Election Has Begun

On Thursday we have a Vote Yes phonebank for Virginia, and a live, in-person event in Bethesda, Maryland......

Morning all. I don’t know what’s going to happen today. Bomb Iran into the Stone Age…..some clumsy Trump delay or climb down….a diplomatic deal…..we will see. Whatever happens we know a few things - this war against Iran is illegal. Trump is spending hundreds of billions of dollars and doing enormous damage to America and the world without Congressional authorization. We still don’t understand why he’s done this - take the oil, regime change, kill bad guys, prevent nukes - other than as he told us in that infamous NYT interview there were no longer any checks on his power other than his “own mind” and thus could just do whatever he wanted, everywhere. The problem of course, as we discussed yesterday in my post He Has Gone Insane, there is no longer an easy way out for him, out of this failed and unpopular disaster, one that may end up leaving Iran and Russia in charge of the Strait of Hormuz and thus in charge of the global economy itself. He may continue to fantasize that Iran will yield, as Maduro did, as Johnson and Thune have done here in the US, but at this point that is hard to imagine……

The war has weakened an American economy already weakening under Trump’s reckless policies. It has sent his poll numbers and the GOP’s electoral prospects in 2026 tumbling down. For weeks the national discourse assumed the war would be over quickly, easy peasy, like the strikes on Iran last year, and whatever short term pain felt by Americans and Republicans would soon ease. Things would just magically snap back to the way things were. This was always wishful thinking. The war has utterly changed the world, and will change our politics here in the US too, something both the discourse and Republicans are slowly waking up too.

The first sign of this new day was when Senator Thune defied Trump right before the Easter recess and passed an unanimous bill to fund DHS without ICE/CBP or the SAVE Act. It was such an unorthodox and panicky move that the next morning Speaker Johnson, perhaps shocked, breached Congressional protocol and mocked Thune, calling a bi-partisan bill passed unanimously to fund DHS - six months after Congress was required to do so - a “joke.”

Last Wednesday, in a highly unusual move, the Speaker, perhaps after a scary polling briefing from Thune’s team, reversed course and embraced the Thune bill, also defying Trump. Within hours it had become clear that the cowardly Speaker faced rebellion on his right for defying Trump and joining in with Thune and his new gambit may have already failed.

How to make sense of all this?

Yesterday, the Senate Republican SuperPAC announced a campaign to spend an extraordinary amount of money, $342 million, to defend their majority. More than two thirds of the money will be spent in the GOP held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. This was an admission from Senate Republicans that the election was indeed turning hard against them, and their majority was in peril. It confirms the poll numbers we’ve been looking at here that showed Democrats now ahead in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, and potentially competitive in Iowa and Texas too (let’s keep an eye on Florida). In DC everyone knew that fractured and broken House was likely to flip to the Democrats, but now we know that things have deteriorated so much for the Republicans that they are taking dramatic and perhaps unprecedented steps to protect a majority that up until a few days ago they maintained was not in danger.

Watch my new discussion with Roy Cooper, our great Senate candidate in North Carolina, or my new talk with Stuart Stevens, for very fresh looks into this new, emerging “post-$342m” landscape.

This new $342m campaign is a sober acknowledgement of how much trouble the Republican Party is now in, and how given what we know, and the abject failure of the war, things are likely to get worse for them, potentially much worse. For what they are now dealing with is not just a deteriorating electoral environment, but the very real prospect of a failed Trump Presidency and the unraveling of the regime itself (consider the wild purges of recent weeks).

For as regimes collapse their actions that once appeared strong and righteous start to appear ridiculous. Trump has looked ridiculous these last few days. Vance’s stumping for Orban in Hungary looks ridiculous, not strategic. The budget Trump and Vought submitted to Congress last week was ridiculous, “a joke” to use Johnson’s phrase, something deeply unserious, outrageous, and perhaps even offensive to Congressional Republicans, let alone Democrats.

I mean how utterly ridiculous does this reporting of JD’s excellent adventure to Budapest sound:

For what Thune and Johnson are coming to realize is that they may have to now govern against the new set of nightmares Trump’s failed regime has brought - a weakening economy and illegal, destructive tariffs; soaring gas prices and inflation; potentially higher interest rates, not lower ones; battered farmers and small businesses; an out of control and despised ICE; unprecedented corruption, a worsening deficit; a damaged health care system and crazy kooks over at HHS; a suicidal assault on science; a failed war and a discredited and reviled American President. The MAGA party has ended, and Thune is now surveying the damage that Trump and his band of miscreants have caused - and it is unbelievably ugly, and every one of Thune’s endangered incumbents were at the party, and help create this historic mess.

So part one of the GOP’s salvage the Senate plan is a massive, media campaign to bullshit their way through all this and go scorched Earth on our candidates. Part two may be the various ways Trump will try to illicitly prevent us from winning and returning to power. But the real question for Thune now is whether he decides to legislate with Democrats and try to fix these broken things, and put a big Senatorial knife into the back of Trump and MAGA - as he just did with DHS funding and the SAVE Act.

I know my talk of a “national unity government” seems a bit far-fetched, hard to imagine today. But I don’t think we, or the Republicans, have any other choice now. Eight months more of this means more harm to America, the communities these Republicans represent, and political Armageddon for the Republican Party this November. Exploding gas, diesel, and fertilizer prices are doing far more harm to rural and exurban Republican voters than our more urban and suburban coalition. The war, and Epstein, have penetrated deeply into MAGA country, undermining the ideological underpinnings of Trumpism and MAGA - for Trump has covered up the Epstein files, even firing Bondi, not released them; turns out he was for regime change, forever wars, not against them; turns out he was for raising prices, not lowering them; for deporting 20m-30m people, not just criminals; for enriching himself and his rich friends not helping those left behind; his tariffs and the war have hurt farmers and small businesses, not helped them. Lie after lie, failure after failure. It’s become impossible to explain away, even to Republican voters and MAGA loyalists.

And then there is this new post from madman Trump this morning, crossing whatever red lines there are left to cross, an explicit promise of mass civilian murder and Putinesque genocide tonight:

In my new polling round I’ve shared the polls Republicans are seeing, and they show profound Trumpian decline in recent weeks. Many of the polls showing Dems ahead in the battleground Senate races have come from Republican pollsters. In today’s FiftyPlusOne average Trump just keeps dropping and is now at his lowest point in his second term:

The public has turned hard against the war, and only 14% of Americans support the kind of escalation Trump has been threatening this week:

Republicans also cannot run away from this data, for these rising prices are broadcast loudly on gas stations throughout GOP districts:

And on Friday they are going to get something that looks like this from our new collection of economic charts - an annual inflation rate of over 10%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So I think something has changed fundamentally in Washington these last few weeks, and when Congress returns next week things will be different. What do we do? Two thoughts:

1 - We have to learn from our success in fighting to rein in ICE and fight Trump on more fronts, more often, adopting something akin to the Hopium agenda as our north star. We cannot wait for January of next year to course correct from Trumpism, for the crisis we are now in is far too grave. We should lead and encourage the Republicans to follow.

2 - Recognize that the “whatever it takes” election we talk about here has begun. Despite their many manifest failures, Republicans and Trump are going to do “whatever it takes” to retain their power in Congress. Spend $342 million in the Senate races. Assemble an unprecedented number of oligarch funded SuperPACs to augment this spend. Attempt all types of chicanery and fuckery to prevent free and fair elections this November. It’s all coming my friends. While we can have the election we all want to have this is going to be an incredible dog fight not a cake walk.

Which is why it’s time to now…..

Get Work to Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

First, there are two opportunities for us to get together and talk about this consequential week in our politics:

• Wed, 6pm ET - Our weekly Hopium paid subscriber gathering (note new time just for this week). Register here.

• Thursday, 7pm in Bethesda, MD - I am excited to be joining my good friends at the Women’s Democratic Club of Montgomery County this coming Thursday at 7pm. You can register here. Bring friends and colleagues, spread this through your networks. Going to be a lot of fun, and I am excited to be able to see members of this remarkable community in person!

New Hopium Phonebank Nights For Vote Yes In Virginia, April 9 & 16

We are joining forces with our friends at Network NOVA to do two nights of phonebanking to drive our vote in the Vote Yes campaign in Virginia:

• Thursday, April 9, 530-8pm - Register here.

• Thursday, April 16, 530-8pm - Register here.

I will be kicking off both events and hanging around for a while to greet folks and thank everyone. Training will be provided for those who need it.

This statewide ballot initiative takes place on Tue, April 21st - so need the Hopium community to rally now, as you always do! Sign up for a shift today, bring friends, promote this through your networks. Let’s close strong in Virginia and bring this baby home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $550,000 raised, $500,000 - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Enjoy our new conversations with Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) | Learn about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

Huge shout-out to the team at FridayAction. Our event a week ago Wednesday with them has now raised $96,000 for our House candidates - amazing, amazing stuff! That total is included in our new amazing total, as is the money given to each individual House candidate in recent weeks.

James Talarico For Texas - $55,300 raised, $100,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $80,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Winning Ohio - $115,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $101,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $164,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $508,100 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions

• Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia

• Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs

• Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding

• Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People

• Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation

• End the War on Science, Health and Public Health

• Make Clear To American Farmers That We Want To End The War, Repeal The Tariffs, Find Legal Pathways For Farm Workers, And Make Health Care And Energy More Affordable

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.

And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon