Ukraine Gets EU Funding Package, Dems Up 6 Points In House Battleground, Peltola Leads In Alaska
2026 is turning out to be a year of opportunity for Democrats and the pro-democracy movement
Greetings everyone. Brent crude is back up to $105 a barrel today:
Gas prices in the US remain over $4 a gallon:
In my posts this week I’ve reviewed how Trump’s failed war has caused his already terrible poll numbers to drop into deeply dangerous territory and the GOP’s mid-term prospects to darken, considerably:
We got further confirmation of how much things have shifted towards the Democrats yesterday in a new Cook Report poll, and new polling in Alaska. Here are excerpts from the Cook poll summary (paywall, sorry):
For Republican candidates running in competitive House districts, The Cook Political Report’s Battleground District Project is a flashing red warning light for the fall.
In an exclusive poll of districts rated by The Cook Political Report as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat — districts which President Donald Trump won by an average of two points in 2024 — Democrats hold a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 50% to 44%.
If that advantage were to hold come November, any district Trump carried by 10 points or less could be in significant danger of flipping into Democratic hands.
………
In the 36 districts surveyed, Trump’s approval rating is deeply underwater, with just 42% approving and 58% disapproving of his job performance. Driving those weak numbers are independent voters, who give the president a 70% disapproval rating.
In 2018, the last successful midterm election for Democrats, independent voters opted for a Democratic candidate by 12 points, according to exit polls. Today, Democrats are winning independent voters in the generic ballot by 25 points.
On issue after issue — with the exception of border security — independent voters trust Democrats more. On the economy, lowering gas and energy prices, and even protecting taxpayer funds from fraud and abuse, independents prefer Democrats by a double-digit margin.
……….
In special elections this cycle, Democrats have proven to be more motivated to show up and vote. That advantage is apparent in this survey as well, with Democrats holding a 14-point advantage over the GOP — 70% to 56% — among voters in battleground districts who say they are most interested in voting this fall.
………..
We conducted this survey in the 36 seats that are most likely to decide control of the House. Voters here are deeply frustrated with Trump and are willing to overlook their antipathy to Democrats in order to put a check on the president.
If these survey results were to be replicated this fall, Democrats would not only net the three seats they need to flip control of the House, but would also put seats that Trump carried by high single and low double-digits in play.
A new monthly tracking poll in Alaska has Mary Peltola with a meaningful 7 point lead over incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (she hits 50% in the second round of their ranked-choice voting system):
This week we’ve seen Senate polls with strong Dem leads in Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina, more modest leads in Iowa and Maine, and within margin of error in Ohio. If these results were to hold through Election Day the Senate would flip to the Democrats.
I cannot stress enough how remarkable it is that in the past month we’ve seen polls with Democrats ahead in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas - all states Trump won in 2024. It’s a sign of how much the battlefield has shifted. Cook has that shift at 8 points in the House battleground districts in their poll. This Senate polling suggests it could be even more than that. For as the Cook poll summary concluded:
If these survey results were to be replicated this fall, Democrats would not only net the three seats they need to flip control of the House, but would also put seats that Trump carried by high single and low double-digits in play.
Here’s the current Cook Report House Race Ratings (from left to right - Toss Up, Lean R, Likely R, italicized is freshman)
This 8 point shift (or perhaps more) has put all these districts in the column on the right, “Likely Republican,” in play. This is how deep we are going into red districts right now. These aren’t purple districts - these are red districts, just as Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Texas have been red states.
But remember, to flip the House, we just need to win these toss-up races. Yes we want to win as many seats as possible but from a strategy stand point here at Hopium we will be sticking to our knitting and prioritizing winning those core races that are most likely to flip. So while the battlefield will be larger than that “Toss up” (or now truly Lean Dem) core our bias here will be to stay narrow, not fuck around, and make sure the House flips.
Exciting stuff all - a year of opportunity for us, indeed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
With Orban Gone, Europe Rallies For Ukraine - From The NYT. Elections have consequences:
For weeks, Ukraine had been caught in a bind. A path to ending the war seemed increasingly illusory, as peace talks with Russia went from yielding no results to being put on hold. That meant Kyiv needed to prepare to fight indefinitely, even as vital financial support from the European Union remained frozen.
On Thursday, a breakthrough finally arrived.
After Hungary dropped its opposition to a $106 billion E.U. loan to Ukraine the day before, European leaders unblocked the funds. The money, which had been held up since December, will cover a large share of Ukraine’s financial needs over the next two years. Once those funds are exhausted, an additional $117 billion from the bloc’s long-term budget is expected to be allocated to Ukraine.
Taken together, the pledges appear to put Ukraine on firmer financial footing at least through 2029, said Hlib Vyshlinsky, head of the Kyiv-based Center for Economic Strategy. The pressure, he added, now shifts to Moscow, which is facing growing economic challenges in sustaining its own war effort.
In addition to the loan, the European Union adopted its 20th package of economic sanctions against Russia on Thursday.
“Deadlock over,” Kaja Kallas, the E.U. foreign policy chief, wrote on social media. “Russia’s war economy is under growing strain, while Ukraine is getting a major boost.”
The European Union’s extended commitment to Ukraine has largely filled a void left by the Trump administration. Last year, European countries provided nearly all of Kyiv’s military, financial and humanitarian support, while U.S. aid fell by 99 percent, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research center.
Unlike previous E.U. assistance packages, the latest one is heavily weighted toward defense spending. Some $70 billion of the loan will go to the military, giving Kyiv a substantial pool of money to buy costly air defense systems and expand production of drones, its most effective tools for blunting Russian ground assaults.
The loan will allow Ukraine to better plan its military operations over the long term. It has seldom been able to do that, as previous assistance often arrived in dribs and drabs, consisting largely of equipment donations rather than funding that could be directed toward buying or producing the weapons Ukraine needs most.
Now, my friends, it is time…..
To Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $603,500 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews. Interviews with Jonathan Nez and Elaine Luria coming soon!
If you are looking for inspiration watch a few of these interviews - I promise these great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November! For it is simple - if we win these twelve races the House flips. Period.
James Talarico For Texas - $61,400 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $85,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
Winning Ohio - $125,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue | Watch my new discussions with Ohio Lt. Gov candiate David Pepper and Ohio Dem Chair Kathleen Clyde
This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $529,400 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $106,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $169,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff
Remember you can find all of our interviews with our inspiring 2026 candidates under the Podcast tab on the main Hopium site and on our channels on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify too.
Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield
There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; and learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year.
Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:
Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions
Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia
Roll back the new, illegal tariffs
Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us
Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere
Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people
Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation
End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health
Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable
This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.
And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon
I am really, really hoping the standoff between Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Trump lasts past Election Day. Neither we nor Wall Street want a lackey at the Fed who drops interest rates just because Trump says he should.
US Attorney Jeanine Pirro supposedly has directed her office to drop the criminal investigation into Powell and the Fed's renovations. To his credit, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is refusing to move forward on Trump’s nominee for new Fed Chair until that absurd investigation is permanently closed.
But, hey, Trump’s obstinacy and thirst for vengeance could still save the day!
Two telling quotes:
“President Donald Trump calls environmentalists “terrorists.” Yet he is responsible for destroying more oil and gas infrastructure, and possibly more fossil-fuel demand, than the most optimistic ecoterrorist could in their wildest dreams. By going to war with Iran, the president, who has been openly hostile toward the clean-energy transition, may unintentionally turn out to be one of its greatest allies.”
– Mark Gongloff, Bloomberg
.
“Donald Trump has done more to accelerate the energy transition than anyone else alive. The attack on Iran is not the way any of us wanted this to happen, but the unintended consequences of Trump’s pointless war could help sink Trumpism everywhere – and the corrupt and filthy industry that props it up.”
– George Monbiot, The Guardian