Vice President Harris Leads, The Democratic Party Is Strong - Let's Put Our Heads Down And Go Win This Thing, Together

Paid Subscribers Gather Wednesday Night, Hopium Winning The House Night Is This Thursday

Happy Monday all. Got a few things for you today:

The Democratic Party Is Strong - One of the central understandings of our work here at Hopium is that the Democratic Party is historically strong and successful right now. Consider:

• We’ve won more votes in 7 of the past 8 Presidential elections. It’s the best popular vote run by an American political party in US history

• In the last 4 Presidential elections we’ve averaged 51% of the vote to the GOP’s 46.5%. It is the best run over 4 Presidential elections since FDR’s 4 elections from 1932 to 1944. We are a center-left country today

• Since Dobbs in the spring of 2022 Democrats have dramatically outperformed the typical American party in power dynamic, gaining ground across the country in elections of all kinds, not losing it

• The last 3 Democratic Presidents brought strong growth, rising wages and lower deficits. The last 3 Republican Presidents brought recessions, higher deficits and decline. Of the 52m jobs created in America since 1989, 50m, 96% have come under Democratic Presidents:

• As the generational wheels turns in the Democratic Party, our rising generation - Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Jeffries, Shapiro, Kelly, Polis, Padilla, Warnock, Buttigieg, Raimondo, Polis, Walz, Wes Moore, AOC, Ben Wikler, Anderson Clayton, etc - is experienced, inspiring, capable and ready to lead

• The Democratic grassroots has given us a new superpower, helping us raise more money than ever before, and giving us the most powerful campaigns we’ve ever seen. A central reason we’ve kept performing at the upper end of what was possible since Dobbs has been the unceasing work of so many of you and millions of your brothers and sisters across the country

• On Sunday the Harris campaign launched its Republicans for Harris effort, something that if is successful could enlarge our coalition and help us win (as it did in 2022). It is a reminder that Trump faces unprecedented opposition to his candidacy from inside his own party - two former VPs including his own, former Presidential and Vice-Presidential nominees, a former party chair, many former Senator and House Members, dozens of officials who worked for him:

• In the last few months far-right parties in Europe, the UK and France were denied power, often times dramatically underperforming public polling. Voters in the West, including here, continually do what they need to do to keep the fascists from power

All of these things together are why I’ve been so optimistic about winning the election this year. The country has rejected MAGA in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and the Trump-Vance version of MAGA we are seeing this year is far more extreme, ugly and dangerous than earlier iterations. Joe Biden has been a very good President and we have a strong record of accomplishment to run on. This basic dynamic that we’ve seen since Dobbs - heightened Dem performance, Republican struggle - was always the most likely scenario for this election too.

And in the last two weeks we’ve started to see the election we all hoped would happen. Harris now has a 1.9 point lead in 538’s national polling average, fully 5.1 points better than the final Biden result (this has been updated since posting this morning):

In the past week she has lead in almost every national poll, and showed significant gains in several. In the two battleground polls released last week she had leads in AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI, was tied in GA and trailed by 2 points in NC. A new poll for a Democratic candidate in PA has Harris up 4 over Trump there - the second PA poll in recent days showing her with a 4 point lead. We are raising more money than Trump, have more in the bank and have a far superior ground game (all of you). The excitement of our VP pick and our Convention is likely to add to our momentum. Obama doing a swing through the battlegrounds at some point will add even more excitement. We are now generating far more organic social media than ever before, something essential for us to have the kind of performance with young people we need. President Biden continues to govern well and keeps putting points on the board for the American people. VP Harris’ performance on the stump has been incredible so far. Trump just had one of his worst weeks on the national stage since he announced in 2015, and it is becoming more evident every day that he is deeply unfit and profoundly unwell.

Recent Senate polling is also very encouraging (all via 538):

AZ 46% Gallego -42% Lake Emerson, 49%-42% CAPA, 50%-47% Progress Action Fund

MI 46% Slotkin - 41% Rogers Detroit News, 51%-46% Fox News, 45%-41% Emerson

MT - no recent reliable polling (let me see what I can dig up)

NV 45% Rosen - 40% Brown Redfield & Wilton, 41%-33% Natl Public Affairs, 47%-42% AARP

OH 46% Brown - 42% Moreno AARP, 50%-45% Marist

PA 47% Casey - 42% McCormick Susquehanna, 53%-42% Bullfinch, 46%-39% Redfield & Wilton, 55%-42% Fox News

WI 54% Baldwin - 43% Hovde Fox News, 49%-43% Emerson, 51%-43% Progress Action, 49%-41% American Greatness (MAGA)

We should be very happy with this data. I’ve bolded the polls I think most important in each state. We are not currently struggling in any of these races. The clear strength of our Senate candidates in the battleground states will also help Harris down the stretch.

I know many of you ask about the FL and TX Senate races. As of now we do not have enough post-Harris polling to have a clear assessment of either state right now but Republicans have lead in these states and they would be very, very expensive to truly contest. We will keep on eye on both as new data comes in over the next few weeks.

Wherever you look right now there is good news for Democrats and our democracy. We will have to keep an eye on the current turmoil in the markets, and our our economy here. The Fed erred terribly in not cutting interest rates last week, and that policy error has injected new uncertainty into the election. But the fundamentals of our economy remain strong, and we should be able to weather this current storm.

On Saturday I wrote about how Trump losing the lead in the election was so devastating for his strongman brand positioning and election narrative. Today I’m talking bout us. In 2020 we had to run against a dangerous sitting President in the midst of COVID and the struggle it brought. In 2021 Trump attacked our democracy and a little more than a year later the women of America lost rights and freedoms common throughout the world. In 2022 despite all this we believed a red wave was coming. Throughout this cycle Trump has held a modest lead. We responded again and again this by doing more and worrying less, though there has been a lot of worry, stress and anxiety these last few years. It has been hard, but we’ve responded to it all by doing the work, winning elections, repeatedly thwarting the fascists and building the most powerful political machine our party has ever seen.

It is possible that in the coming weeks we will need to seek our motivation not from worry and fear but from something far more powerful - from joy, from strength, from confidence, from winning. I’ve always rejected the idea that you want to act as if you are a few points down in an election. When you are down in an election you lose people, volunteers, money. People want to know their work and money can help a campaign or cause be successful. Today, right now it is just true that we have had a remarkable few weeks, are ahead in the polls and are more likely to win. There will be bumps, good days and bad days, but we need to allow ourselves to go there - to understand that the Democratic Party is strong, that we are a center-left country, that we have governed the country well when in power, that Biden and Harris have left us far better off, that are we now leading in this election and have a very serious shot at winning the Presidency, keeping the Senate, flipping the House and electing the first woman to be President of the United States in all our history. That rather than being scary, Trump is pathetic, weak, desperate and a stone cold fucking loser.

We need to allow ourselves to go to the place that that we are strong and they are weak. That we are unified and they are divided. That we are virtuous and they are dangerous. That we want to move the country forward and they want to take us back. That we have Harris and they have Trump. That we are winning and they are losing. We need to allow ourselves to go to these places for it is simply where things are now and we need to be loud and proud about it all, however uncomfortable it feels.

Friends, while this election is close today and we have an awful lot of work to do we are not playing to catch up or to prevent a red wave from happening - we are playing to win. And there is never a time in any sport or campaign where it is bad to be ahead. It is just an unalloyed good. And I believe, deeply that joy and hope are more powerful than hate and fear. The up-swell we are all feeling comes from that sense of power, of winning of yes we can. Early voting begins in five weeks. The final day of voting, Election Day, is in just three months. It’s show time people. Let us harness this newfound joy and optimism - hopium even - and work harder than we’ve ever worked on anything, together, to go win this thing - and send Trump and MAGA into the dustbin of history where they so clearly belong. As Vice President Harris said the other day the baton hasn’t been passed to her. It’s been passed to us.

3 Events This Week -

• Wed, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together (invite sent via email)

• Thur, 730pm ET - Hopium Winning The House Thursday For Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) - registration info will be available in tomorrow’s post - let’s make this one rock!

• Fri, 1pm ET - Monthly Hopium Founding Member Get Together (invite sent via email)

If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to join either of you events you can upgrade to a paid subscriber here. Going to be a big week for our politics!

Fired Up, Ready To Go/Working From Joy Not Worry - Our next Hopium Winning The House grassroots event is this Thursday at 730pm ET. We will be making calls and writing postcards for Kirsten Engel running in Arizona’s 6th District. We are attempting to streamline and improve these events so they are easier for all involved and we can get more work done. So mark down the time, plan on joining us and look for the new registration links on Tuesday. And thanks again to everyone who came to our inaugural event for Janelle Bynum on Thursday night - it was a lot of fun and a great success.

If you are looking for other ways to help us win this November, please consider supporting one of our Hopium back candidates or state parties. Our fundraising goals are for the last day of the Democratic Convention, August 22nd. It’s show time people:

• Harris For President - $800,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Learn More. Amazing work all!

• Winning The House - $768,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve also raised more then $61,000 into the individual House campaigns (you can either give to all 11 or each one individually). Be sure to watch my recent interview with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries who came by to thank the Hopium community and give us an update on our efforts to flip the House this November

• North Carolina - $356,000 raised today, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $311,000 raised today, $350,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $129,000 raised today, $150,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Here’s how you can do even more:

• Volunteer for the Harris campaign - join the hundreds of thousands of people who have volunteered in recent weeks!

• Watch our Winning The House interviews with Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) Will Rollins (CA-41), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Rudy Salas (CA-22) and Josh Riley (NY-19). Great candidates all!

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in a few states on September 20th, less than 2 months away!

• Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party, this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election and my latest take on the 2024 election recorded on Monday, July 29th

Help Hopium Get to 100,000! - Finally, please help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Use this link to sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack.

The Hopium community is now over 98,000 strong - help us get to 100,000 this week!

Keep working hard all. It’s how we win - Simon