Good morning all. The proud, plucky patriots of the Hopium community gathered last night for a lively session celebrating our recent series of consequential wins. You can find a video recording and transcript above.
Here’s a summary of what we talked about last night, where I think we are now, and where we might be heading:
We Are Strong Now, And He Is Weak - Looking back at the past month we’ve had a remarkable series of big wins - the US Senate voted to roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs; an enormous blue wave swept across the country two weeks ago, giving us election victories of all kinds, everywhere; polling now makes plain that Trump took a huge hit during the shutdown, which helped contribute mightily to our big election wins; we restored our margins with young people and Hispanic voters in NJ and VA, a potentially ominous development for Republicans next year; his redistricting gambit has both failed, and blown up in his face; the entire Congress turned on him, and forced him to release the Epstein files that he’s been suppressing for months despite clear promises to release them; his illicit campaign to prosecute his political enemies has begun to unravel; his already terrible poll numbers have fallen even further, the battlefield has shifted by 8 + points towards the Dems since 2024, Dems are starting to open up sturdy leads in party ID and the generic ballot, and the Senate - not just the House - appears to be in play; it is not clear a diminished Mike Johnson retains control of the House; powerful Republican opposition leaders have begun to emerge; House and Senate Rs are now at war with one another, and the whole DC GOP thing has begun melting down as the undeniable stench of Trumpian failure becomes impossible to ignore.
As we discussed last night the meme that “Republicans may be weak but so are the Dems” is simply no longer true. We’ve gone to battle against Trump these last few months on many fronts and won, repeatedly. We’ve shown that we can take him in head to head fights. We are stronger now, and he and his party are weaker - much, much weaker.
This summer we set a goal of “winning the fall,” which for us meant we were shooting for there to be a clear understanding here in America and around the world that the tide had begun to turn against Trump.
Well, we are there now, peeps.
While we have a lot of work to do, here at Hopium we take and celebrate the wins when they come. So - congratulations everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We’ve done a lot of good, together, these past few months. Live with that feeling as we head into the Thanksgiving holidays…….
Let’s Look At Some Data - As we always do we discussed lots of data last night. Some highlights:
The new NPR/PBS/Marist generic ballot:
Gallup Party ID:
State polls continue to be encouraging:
16% of Trump voters now regret their vote:
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey had its lowest reading in its 65 year history:
Even Right-Aligned Pollsters Are Showing Trump In Trouble, And Are Raising Alarm Bells. The Red Wave Polling Project Is Unraveling - Up until a few weeks ago there were enough Republican polls out there showing that Trump was “fine” that the Republican political ecosystem was perhaps not fully aware of how much trouble they were in, and what a liability Trump and his agenda had become. Yes, they could tell themselves that Trump was down in those “liberal” polls but in our polls everything was fine. Dear Leader remained young, virile, handsome, a global success, and very, very popular. Everything was fine.
And then, all of a sudden, everything was not fine. Republicans lost by enormous margins in all sorts of elections all across the country. Those red wave pollsters - 7 of their guys - were all off in New Jersey by more than 10 points. And now their polls have began to reflect a new and more far more perilous reality for them. Look at these shifts we’ve seen in right-aligned polls in recent days (Trump approve/disapprove):
TIPP - 45%-46% to 40%-51% - 10 point drop
Fox - 46%-54% to 41%-58% - 9 point drop
Echelon - 46%-53% to 42%-57% - 8 point drop
Quantus - 47%-51% to 43%-55% - 8 point drop
RMG - 51%-47% to 49%-50% (LOLOLOL) - 5 point drop
HarrisX/Harvard - 47%-49% to 44%-51% - 5 point drop
Emerson - 45%-48% to 41%-49% - 5 point drop
This is what they are seeing on Fox News today. Carnage:
As we discussed yesterday, in the past few days two highly influential Republican pollsters - Cygnal, the pollster for House Republicans, and McLaughlin, a Trump pollster - have issued panicky warnings that without a big course correction the Rs are headed towards disaster next year.
While a few weeks ago everything was “fine” it is now not fine, really not fine, even in the red wave, right-aligned data universe. Republicans understand where they are; understand how badly the election went for them across the country; how ugly and corrosive the Epstein scandal is; and we should expect a furious, manic, desperate effort to make things better for them in the days and months ahead.
What We Do Now - Here are at Hopium our mission is to mitigate the damage he is doing, advance our agenda, and win back as much power as we can. These three goals continue to be our North Star as we head into this next stage of the fight.
Republicans still must - somehow - pass a fiscal year budget in the coming months, and we should be encouraging our electeds to have more ambition now in these negotiations - for we are stronger and they are weaker. We continue to lobby every day for our four part agenda below which is full of things our leaders should be fighting for now.
In January elected officials at every level of government will be returning to the deal with the wreckage of Trump’s first disastrous year. Every government, at every level, red/blue/purple, will be dealing with the downstream fiscal effects of a slower economy; the damage Trump’s tariffs have done to farmers, small businesses, and all of us; worker shortages and terrorized communities; a newly broken health care system; inhumane cuts to food assistance; surging electricity prices; unprecedented corruption; an historic trampling of our rights and liberties. Local news is going to be filled with story after story of the struggle of city councils, county governments, and state legislatures to deal with this incredible societal wrecking ball flowing from Trump’s agenda of sabotage, plunder, and betrayal. It is likely to bring to light the harm Trump has done in even more powerful ways to voters across the country, and further drive him and his party away from a battered and deeply unhappy electorate - a process we must assist in every community across the country as together we make them “defend the indefensible.”
While we fight to get more from the upcoming Congressional funding battles, and amplify the harms Trump has done to people across the country when governments return in January, we also must be giving our party committees and candidates the resources they need to staff up early and be communicating/engaging 24/7/365. For Trump is going to use his plunder, the oligarchs, and his global allies to mount a massive media campaign to memory hole his many failures, put lipstick on the Trumpian pig, and eviscerate our candidates. This assault is coming, and we simply must prepare for it by getting our national and battleground parties and candidates the resources they need now - not next summer and fall.
That’s what we talked about last night.
If you like this post and video hit like, share it with others, become a paid subscriber to support this work, and……
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everybody!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In a new essay I talk about how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up now, be loud now, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land. The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $53k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $96k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $6,500 raised, $50,000 goal - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Watch our new interviews with Christina Bohannan (IA-01) and Jo Mendoza (AZ-06)
Hopium House 7 - Our Top House Incumbents Running For Re-election (2026) - $243k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents | Keeping these newly elected Members in Congress is the first step in winning the House in 2026
Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $198,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate to all five state parties in a single contribution | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!
North Carolina and Ohio - Learn more about our 2026 opportunities in Ohio in this conversation with David Pepper, and in North Carolina in this new interview Anderson Clayton.
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our four part agenda:
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - Next year, on July 4th, America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.
One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:
But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so.
- Simon
