A New Interview With David Jolly, Encouraging New Senate Polls, Fake Polls And The New Battlefield

Early voting begins on September 18th in Virginia - a month away!

Greetings everyone. A few notes from the past few days…..

Trump’s failed regime just keeps failing…….

I will have more to say about the results from Florida and other states last night in the coming days but a few highlights…..

Republicans were locked out of the Alaska Governor’s race last night as the top two candidates to emerge out of the all party primary were Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich. This is good news for Mary Peltola. While votes are still being counted in Alaska Peltola is outpacing Sullivan in the raw vote so far - also very good news for Mary Peltola.

Democrats appear to have flipped another very Trumpy state house district:

Trump’s handpicked gubernatorial candidate in Florida failed to break 50% in his primary last night (ruh-roh):

Enjoy this new conversation/pod with Donalds’ November opponent, David Jolly, our nominee for governor (conducted a few days ago):

DSA candidates had wins and losses last night. Learn more about the DSA here…..

Trump Keeps Crashing Through Floors, Finding New Polling Bottoms - Trump got his worst Reuters/Ipsos poll of the cycle yesterday, clocking in at 33%-64% (-31). Here’s our updated Trump poll roundup:

We also got three new encouraging polls in battleground Senate races:

• The first poll of the general election in Minnesota has our Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan leading her opponent Michele Tafoya 46%-41%

• A new in the Michigan Senate race with a Republican sponsor and pollster has El-Sayed up 3 with likely voters, 45%-42%. This is the second poll this week showing El-Sayed lead. In the race for Governor Jocelyn Benson leads by 16 points, 53%-37%. More good news for El-Sayed.

• A new poll by one of the most Republican pollsters in the country (and a dishonest one) has Senator Ossoff up comfortably in Georgia 50%-43%

Speaking of dishonest pollsters here’s a bit of a shocker from the NYT:

An organization that released public election polling in recent weeks withdrew the results of two surveys, revealing that it had fabricated the polls as part of a “short-term social experiment” meant to expose how quickly false information could spread.

One of the surveys released by the group, Median Strategies, claimed that Francesca Hong was leading the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor by more than 20 percentage points. (She went on to lose by less than one percentage point.) Another, shared by Mayor Karen Bass on X in a since-deleted post, showed Ms. Bass leading Nithya Raman by nearly 12 percentage points in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff.

On Monday, Median Strategies withdrew those results, saying they “should not be treated as genuine polling data.”

In a statement posted to the organization’s website, Median Strategies said the fabricated results were intended to examine “how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”

Median Strategies did not respond to a request for further comment on the incident.

The false polls, particularly the one from the California race, spread widely after being picked up by The California Post and various social media polling aggregators. The results, however, were not published by multiple major polling aggregators, and were not included in The New York Times’s poll trackers because the group did not respond to questions about its methodology.

The experiment came as the number of public pollsters has skyrocketed, with around 30 new pollsters cropping up so far this year. The large number of surveys coming from new, previously untested pollsters has made it increasingly difficult to judge survey quality. But while these new pollsters may be unproven, the vast majority appear to be real.

In Wisconsin, the Median Strategies results were largely in line with the other public polls, all of which greatly underestimated Ms. Hong’s opponent, David Crowley, igniting a wave of criticism of the value of primary polling.

Helping our side better understand the ability of fake and partisan polls to create a false understanding of an election is a central reason I founded Hopium in 2023. These illicit tactics are part of the “new battlefield” we’ve been talking about here in recent months. For more on the way polling can be gamed read these two recent analyses, Rigging Elections And The Majority Illusion, and Notes On Why The Polling Was So Off In Michigan.

Last week I joined ASDC President Jane Kleeb in announcing a national “new battlefield” project to help the state parties navigate this evolving terrain of our politics, and ensure there is a free and fair election this fall and a peaceful transfer of power in January. You can learn more about this exciting new project here, and in this clip from my talk last week:

We will have more info about this project, including ways to support this work financially, available early next week.

Yes, my friends, it’s that time, with less than a month before early voting begins….

It’s Time To Go Win Some Elections!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Our Winning The House Campaign - Donate | $1,106,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - Donate | $312,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, recent primaries and need a bit more help.

Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here.

Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $15,100 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).

Winning The Senate - $737,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).

Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

Winning Georgia - $31,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party

Winning Iowa - $33,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party

Winning Maine - $81,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Maine fund splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman

Winning Ohio - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $652,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

A Few More Things To Do

Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year. Learn more about how our political battlefield is changing and how we can best protect our elections this November and ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January. Bring our Resolutions Project to your community. Fight for Hopium’s Agenda and let’s also embrace Leader Jeffries’ new agenda, “Fighting For An Affordable America.” Become a paid subscriber to Hopium to help us grow this community of proud, plucky patriots.

In the spirit if informing and not inflaming I’ve set up a new page to help us learn more about the Democratic Socialists Of America (DSA). Additionally, my friend Halie Soifer, the very capable CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, has written a very thoughtful piece with recommendations for how Abdul El-Sayed can address the very real concerns about his candidacy in the Jewish community.

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.