Democrats Really Like Their President, The Republican Party Is Splintering, Mitch's Dark Legacy

Paid Subscribers Gather on March 6th, Entire Hopium Community on March 13th

Happy Thursday all. A few things for you today:

A few top-line notes:

• The Republican Party’s corruption of the judiciary is a central reason why illiberalism is on the rise here in America. We need to stop counting on or even paying attention to Trump’s trials and just go out and win the election with what we have, which is, in my view, more than enough to get it done this November. I will have more on this in the coming days.

• Some have asked about Biden getting fewer votes in MI on Tuesday. Of course he did! Rs had a competitive primary and we didn’t. As I’ve been writing the story of Trump/GOP so far is one of weakness and struggle, not strength. Remember, since Dobbs, when we’ve had competitive elections, we just keep overperforming and they keep struggling. In MI, Biden broke 80%, Uncommitted disappointed, Dean Phillips is now officially defeated and Trump for the fourth straight state underperformed public polls. We had a good night. We are strong and united, they are weak and divided. In every way possible I would much rather be us than them as head deeper into 2024.

Democrats Really Like Joe Biden - A central reason why Joe Biden has no primary challenge, and the party is remarkably unified as we head deeper into 2024 is that Democrats are happy with their President. Consider this data from recent Economist/YouGov polls, which have the general election tied (the cohort is “Party ID with Leaners” - meaning it’s Democrats and independents who lean Democrat). It’s Biden:

• Job Approval - 82% approve, 16% disapprove (highest w/18-29 year olds)

• Jobs/Economy Approval - 78% approve, 18% disapprove (+60)

• Foreign Policy Approval - 71% approve, 21% disapprove (+50)

• 2024 Vote Intent - Biden 86%, Trump 4%, Other 3%

Democrats like their President, think he is doing a good job, and are going to fight very hard to get him re-elected. We have work to do to bring our entire coalition along, but I feel good about where we are, and if we do the work, should have the election all of us want to have this year.

“Stocks Rise As Key January Inflation Reading Meets Forecasts” - From CNBC this morning:

Stocks ticked higher as investors digested a key inflation metric that met economist expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 90 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9%.

Data showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation was stubbornly above the central bank’s target in January, but at least didn’t exceed Wall Street forecasts. There were also signs that consumer spending remains robust.

The personal consumption expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, with matched the Dow Jones consensus estimate. Headline PCE, which includes food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.4%.

“Fortunately, this morning’s data didn’t come in hotter than expected and is a sigh of relief for bulls, who were worried inflation was going to reaccelerate and cause the Fed to put off rate hikes for a much longer time — or even worse, begin raising rates again,” said Independent Advisor Alliance chief investment officer Chris Zaccarelli. “At least for today, it should be all systems go and buyers should re-emerge.”

Meanwhile, personal income rose 1% month-over-month in January, well above the forecast for 0.3%.

Trump’s Financial Problems Are About To Become A Major 2024 Issue - From the NYTimes:

Donald J. Trump on Wednesday lost his initial bid for a New York appeals court to pause the more than $450 million judgment he faces in a civil fraud case, a decision that could expose him to financial peril.

Mr. Trump’s lawyers had asked the appeals court to allow him to post only a $100 million bond — a promise from an outside company that the judgment eventually will be paid — because securing one for the full amount was “impossible,” they said.

A single appellate court judge assigned to consider Mr. Trump’s request, Anil Singh, turned him down on Wednesday. Mr. Trump will try again next month with a panel of five appellate court judges, but for now, the former president is still on the hook to post a bond for the full amount of more than $450 million. And any company providing one would probably require him to pledge cash and other collateral that he does not yet have.

If Mr. Trump fails to secure the bond, the New York attorney general’s office, which brought the case accusing him of fraudulently inflating his net worth, can collect the $454 million from him. The attorney general, Letitia James, is expected to provide Mr. Trump a 30-day grace period, which will expire on March 25, at which point she could move swiftly to seize Mr. Trump’s bank accounts and perhaps take control of his New York properties.

The $454 million judgment was levied by the trial judge in the fraud case, Arthur F. Engoron, who also imposed a range of other punishments on Mr. Trump and his family business. They include a prohibition on obtaining a loan from a New York bank for three years and a ban on running a company in the state during that same period, restrictions that are complicating Mr. Trump’s effort to line up a bond.

Mitt Romney Says He Will Not Vote for Trump. The GOP Has Splintered - There’s an awful lot of evidence out there that some meaningful chunk of Republicans are not going along with the extremist MAGA direction of their party now, and can be available to us in 2024 if we work it. This idea that their escalating extremism is creating new opportunities for us to grow and expand, and take stuff away from them, is core to my Get to 55 strategy. Watch Mitt here, and consider how unusual it is to see so many current and former Republicans to be in such open rebellion against their own party.

McConnell’s Dark Legacy - History is not going to be kind to the retiring Republican Senate leader. My friend Greg Sargent has a great new pod with Norm Ornstein on Mitch’s dark legacy for those looking to dive in a bit further:

March Event Dates - Three events on the books so far in March:

• Fri, March 1, 1pm EST - Hopium Founding Members Get Together W/Simon

• Wed, March 6, 7pm EST - Hopium Paid Subscriber Monthly Gathering - Register

• Thur, March 7th - State Of The Union Address - Be Sure to Watch!!!!!

• Wed March 13, 7pm EST - Hopium Community-Wide Monthly Gathering - Register

Free subscribers can upgrade their membership to join these additional gatherings by clicking here.

Why I’m Optimistic About Winning This November - A round up of recent postings, essays and appearances. Lots of Hopium in here.

Hopium Analysis/Us - Biden Breaks 80% in Michigan, Trump Continues To Struggle, Biden’s Successful Presidency Is Leaving Rs With Nothing To Run On, Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic)

Hopium Analysis/Them - More Performance Problems For Trump and MAGA in South Carolina, Trump Is Not Strong, Or Winning - No Red Waving 2024 Please, Coming To Terms With Russia’s Penetration of Trump and The GOP, MAGA Descends Into Madness

Hopium Events/Appearances - Our Monthly Hopium Gathering With Special Guest Tom Suozzi, With Democrats, Things Get Better, Appearances on PoliticsGirl and The Ezra Klein Show

The Most Powerful Democratic Political Machine We’ve Ever Seen - Read my recent post on the powerful political machine we building together, and let’s just keep staring at this jaw-dropping data from the Suozzi campaign:

In the space of five weeks people knocked on over 150,000 doors, made over 2 million phone calls, and wrote hundreds of thousands of postcards. Our campaign estimates that every Democrat household in the NY-03 received, on average, five handwritten postcards.

Here’s my discussion with Lawrence O’Donnell from Tuesday night about Joe Biden’s strong showing in Michigan, and Trump’s ongoing political struggles.

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. I try to give you a bit of direction about where to channel your work by endorsing campaigns and projects, and providing you information to help you become a more effective information warrior for your democracy. Together we just made a big difference in NY-3, and if you are looking for ways to help right now here are three things you can do today:

Donate and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The campaign comms and field operations are gearing up and it’s critical you receive info from the campaign every day, and start thinking about how you are going to be part of this effort as it expands. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.

We’ve already raised over $79,000 everyone for Biden Harris - thank you!

Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 expansion state. Please consider donating today. For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Democratic Party Chair.

We’ve already raised $62,000 for this critical battleground - thank you all!

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 subscribers by March 31st (we are at 44,000 today). With your help we can hit our goal, grow our community and bring the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people.

Here’s Governor Newsom talking about the need to “worry less, do more” on Meet The Press this weekend:

Keep working hard all. So proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon