Good Senate Polls In MN And NH, David Crowley Drops A New Ad in WI, Chair Ken Martin On The Impact Of DNC Investments This Cycle

Tom Bonier is coming by live Tuesday at Noon ET to talk fake polls and the 2026 elections

Greetings everyone. I made it to my destination last night - that’s good. Our bags didn’t make it - not so good! Hopefully they will arrive this morning, United Airlines….

A few things today…..

A new well-regarded poll in New Hampshire has Chris Pappas with a comfortable lead over this most likely opponent, Chris Sununu. This margin would be in keeping with the national climate in a state Harris won by 3 points in 2024 (data via FiftyPlusOne):

Republicans released a Minnesota poll that has our Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan up 5, the second poll this week showing Flanagan with a modest 5 point lead. When the other party releases a poll showing your candidate up 5 and at 50 we would call that encouraging:

Here’s our updated Senate poll round up. We got a shot peeps!

The Guardian figured out who was behind the fake Median poll operation and it’s a 21 year old with AI:

A 21-year-old recent college graduate was behind an anonymous website that put out widely shared fake election polling in Wisconsin, Nevada and California, the Guardian can reveal.

The website, Median Strategies, abruptly shut down and withdrew its polling earlier this week following questions from a reporter from the Los Angeles Times. In an unsigned statement, it described a “short-term social experiment” to examine how fake polling “could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification”.

“I wanted to see if fake polls could really penetrate the ecosystem that easily,” Rahil Prakash told the Guardian on Thursday when reached by phone. “And as it turned out, it could.”

…….In an interview, Prakash said he was motivated to start the fake polling project after a significant polling miss in the Michigan Senate primary, where polls had showed Abdul El-Sayed with a heavy lead over his opponent Haley Stevens before election day. In the event, El-Sayed wound up winning by a much smaller margin than polls had suggested.

“This is what inspired me to test my theory,” said Prakash. “I was a bit shocked, perhaps at how fast this sort of information can spread.”

Our good friend Tom Bonier is coming by here on Tuesday at Noon ET to talk about the challenges we all face from manipulated polling in our new, evolving political battlefield. You can join us by heading the main Hopium site at noon where the video will play at the top of the screen.

Chair Ken Martin has published a new piece about the DNC’s work this cycle that is well worth a read, Investing to win, investing to build, investing to last. I also recommend this new op-ed from the Chairs of the process that created our new Presidential calendar, Minyon Moore and Jim Roosevelt Jr, Mark your calendars — Democrats are ready for 2028.

A few more things to read this weekend:

• Scott Bessent Fails to Gaslight the Market, Paul Krugman

• ICE begins deporting Haitians who lost TPS back to homeland, The Washington Post

• The NYT - Inside Russia’s Giant Push to Upend a Tiny Country: In Moldova, Moscow paid Orthodox priests, conducted a vote-buying scheme and set up training camps on election interference — all in an effort to derail the Western-leaning government

• Democrats put Trump’s ‘corruption’ front and center as they plan possible 2027 probes, Politico

New Hopium pods to watch and savor:

• House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries

• Rep. Greg Meeks, Ranking Member Of The House Foreign Affairs Committee

• Sherrod Brown (Ohio Senate), Troy Jackson (Maine Senate), David Jolly (Florida Governor)

• Marni von Wilpert (CA-48), Randy Villegas (CA-22), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07)

• Charlie Dingman, Maine Democratic Party Chair

You can find all of our interviews and podcasts on the Hopium site under the Podcast tab and on our YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify channels. too.

Our nominee for Wisconsin Governor David Crowley dropped this new ad:

Our candidates continue to produce a steady stream of terrific social media content like this from Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03):

Yes, my friends, it is that time…….

Time To Go Win Some Elections!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Our Winning The House Campaign - Donate | $1,114,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - Donate | $319,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, recent primaries and need a bit more help.

Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here.

Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $17,300 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).

Winning The Senate - $746,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).

Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

Winning Georgia - $31,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party

Winning Iowa - $33,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party

Winning Maine - $81,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Maine fund splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman

Winning Ohio - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $652,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

A Few More Things To Do

Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year. Learn more about how our political battlefield is changing and how we can best protect our elections this November and ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January. Bring our Resolutions Project to your community. Fight for Hopium’s Agenda and let’s also embrace Leader Jeffries’ new agenda, “Fighting For An Affordable America.” Become a paid subscriber to Hopium to help us grow this community of proud, plucky patriots.

In the spirit if informing and not inflaming I’ve set up a new page to help us learn more about the Democratic Socialists Of America (DSA). Additionally, my friend Halie Soifer, the very capable CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, has written a very thoughtful piece with recommendations for how Abdul El-Sayed can address the very real concerns about his candidacy in the Jewish community.

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon