It's A New, Bluer Election, Winning AZ and NC, Keep Making Calls for Ukraine

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Happy Tuesday all, got a few things for you today:

It’s A New, Bluer Election - Yesterday I wrote about rising poll numbers for Biden and the Dems, including what was the best poll of the year for Joe Biden, one showing him up 53-47 (+6) nationally with likely voters. The movement we’ve seen towards the Dems in the last few weeks have been very encouraging, and something many of us thought would happened as we got deeper into the general election and voters tuned in.

Today I want to talk a bit about AZ and NC, and new polling on RFK. As members of this community know we’ve put our Hopium stake in the ground in recent months for Biden-Harris and in particular for the battleground states Arizona and North Carolina. The central reason I’ve focused on these two of the seven battleground states is that each was going to have an ultra-MAGA extremist at the top of the ticket (Kari Lake, Mark Robinson), which in keeping with our Get to 55 understanding, meant that more was possible for us in both states this year. And let’s be very clear - there is no winning map for Trump without both these states. So our community has gone to work, and we’ve raised hundreds of thousands of dollars and many of you have volunteered for Ruben Gallego and Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Dems (thank you all!). This is deeply strategic and targeted work.

I traveled to Arizona last week to give the keynote address at the Maricopa Country Democratic Party’s 100th anniversary dinner. What I found there was a highly energized party, one ready to go win Arizona this year. Arizona had already been of our biggest Dem success stories in recent years, turning a formally red state into a purple one, and Ruben Gallego already had a slight lead in recent polling. And this was before the Donald Trump gave the green-light to the states to work their will and the Arizona Supreme Court followed his lead and choose to allow the 1864 law and it’s total abortion ban to take effect in the next few weeks. The re-reinstatement of this law is a political earthquake in Arizona and I believe in the national election, as millions of Arizonans are about to lose long held rights and freedoms right in the middle of the election. It makes the threat of MAGA and it’s escalating extremism proximate not abstract or distant to the people of Arizona and the US, and many believe it will make it far more likely Dems win up and down the ticket in this critical battleground this November (but only if we do the work!).

We are starting to see a similar dynamic play out in North Carolina, home of some of the most extreme and radical Republicans in the country. There have been three North Carolina polls released in the last few weeks and all have the Biden Trump race within margin of error, or essentially tied. But more importantly, two have our gubernatorial nominee there, Josh Stein, up by 8 and 9 points. While the Stein winning doesn’t guarantee that Biden wins in North Carolina, it makes it far more likely. And of course all of you know our friend Anderson Clayton, with our help and support, is building the most ambitious and effective field operation the Tar Heel state has ever seen.

Friends, we’ve had a lot of good political news in the last few days. Biden’s rising poll numbers, Trump’s ongoing terrible April, the very strong first quarter financial reports, the big win on Ukraine, etc. But to me, what is happening in Arizona and North Carolina may be the best news of all, and it’s why I hope you will consider making donations to Ruben Gallego and Anderson Clayton today. Winning Arizona and North Carolina has been our focus here, and will almost certainty continue to be through November.

I talked about Biden’s improving poll numbers and Trump’s terrible April on CNN yesterday morning. Enjoy:

Kennedy. Here’s a new article in the Washington Post today, Biden’s polls improve as Kennedy and third party factor shifts:

And now, there are growing signs that Kennedy and his fellow third-party candidates might not cost Biden after all. Indeed, they — and particularly Kennedy — could actually pull more from Trump.

Two new high-quality polls since Sunday bear this out.

The latest is from Marist College on Monday. It shows Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 48 percent in a national head-to-head contest. But when you factor in third-party candidates — Kennedy, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West — Biden’s lead goes to five percentage points, larger than the poll’s 3.6-point margin of error.

Marist has long been one of Biden’s better polls. But that’s his best showing in a high-quality poll for many months.

An NBC News poll Sunday showed a similar dynamic. While Biden trailed by two points head to head (44-46), he led by two points (39-37) when the question included the third-party candidates.

Both NBC results are within the margin of error, but the key here is the four-point shift toward Biden when you include third-party candidates. That’s something we really haven’t seen before.

And a big reason for the shift is Kennedy. He takes twice as much of his support from voters who had previously picked Trump in the head-to-head question (15 percent of those voters) than those who had picked Biden (7 percent). Biden cedes more votes than Trump to Stein, but Kennedy is a larger factor given that he’s been pulling more votes throughout the race.

(That poll is also merely the latest to show Kennedy’s image among right-leaning voters is vastly superior to his image among left-leaning ones. While Republicans like him 40 percent to 15 percent — a plus-25 split — Democrats dislike him 53-16 — a negative-37 split.)

How remarkable would be if this MAGA creation, Kennedy, ended up sinking Trump? Kennedy’s farcical candidacy is another example of how idiotic and incompetent team Trump is, and another reason why I remain deeply optimistic about winning this November.

More new, bluer election resources for you:

• Why I’m So Optimistic We Will Win This November (Video, 4/16/24) - My latest overview of where we are in the 2024 election and why I am so optimistic about winning this year. The post also has a deep dive on recent, encouraging polling data. While it remains a close, competitive election, things have gotten bluer in recent weeks, and Trump no longer leads.

• My Interview With the NYT - Here’s my interview with Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. It’s gotten a lot of attention. Do read. Lots of great stuff in here!

• With Democrats, Things Get Better - The core Hopium presentation, this 30 minute deep dive on the progress America makes when Democrats are in the White House, has an extended section on the strong economic gains the country has made under Joe Biden. A must view for all the budding information warriors out there.

Friends, we have a long way to go in this election, and a lot of work to do, but in every way imaginable right now I would much rather be us than them.

Trump’s Terrible April Keeps Getting Worse - The contrast between Joe Biden’s strong, successful leadership of the country, and him, the other guy, could not be more stark today - and all of this is happening just as many more voters are starting to tune into the election. Consider what has happened to Trump just this month:

• He was just loudly rebuked by his own Party on something that really matters to him, and he failed to hold the line on Ukraine funding for his ally Putin (Boss Putin going to be really unhappy!!!)

• He confirmed that he’s the most dangerous abortion extremist in America, putting him and his party on the side of the most extreme - and wildly unpopular - abortion restrictions in the nation all the while looking remarkable feckless, craven and idiotic

• His scammy new company has seen its stock price drop from 79 to 35

• He became the first former American President to become a defendant in a criminal trial, and so far so bad for the orange guy

• Based on early April fundraising reports his Party is being dramatically outraised by Democrats across the country

• After a terrible week last week, and with all eyes on him, his raging dumpster fire of a campaign failed to pull off a simple campaign event in North Carolina on Saturday night

• The long list of prominent and influential Republicans saying they will not vote for him, which now includes 2 former GOP Vice Presidents, a former GOP nominee, a former national party chair and dozens of high ranking officials who worked for him, just keeps getting longer and more politically perilous for him

• He’s now trying to claim - desperately, pathetically - he never came out for repealing the ACA - another wildly unpopular position he has locked himself into this year

• Biden and Dems poll numbers are improving, his lead is gone, and new polls suggest Kennedy may draw more from him than Biden (LOLOLOL!!!!!!)

Remember:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political things any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well oiled political machine.

Upcoming Hopium Events - Hold these dates:

• Fri, May 3rd, 1pm ET - Hopium Founding Member Discussion With Simon

• Wed, May 8th, 7pm ET - Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together

• Tue, May 14th, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon

• Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon

• Fri/Sat June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit - More info, register

• Aug 19-22 - Democratic Convention in Chicago

Friends, I have many invitations to join you at events this spring and summer. I’ve been a little slow to respond in recent weeks for my 18 year old daughter, our last one at home, graduates from high school in early June and there are many festive events surrounding her graduation I need to keep my schedule clear for. Shooting to get back to everyone by the end of the week - thank you for your patience!

Big Ukraine Win This Weekend, Call Your Senators - So grateful to all of you who made calls into the House this past week, lobbying for the passage of Ukraine funding. It now moves to the Senate and I’m asking everyone here to call your Senators today and encourage them to supporting Ukraine funding. Here’s a possible script for you to use:

The people of Ukraine have been so brave. They have fought so hard against overwhelming odds, and lost so much. It is time America stands with them and gives them the tools they need to defeat Putin. Please do not just vote for the Ukraine funding bill this week, but please fight for it too. Our freedom, and the freedom of the people of the world, depends on what we do this week.

Here’s the latest on the vote from NBC News:

The Senate vote scheduled for Tuesday won’t be on final passage of the bill. But it will be a key indicator of whether the legislation has enough support to head to President Joe Biden’s desk.

Senators on Tuesday afternoon will discuss whether they can reach a deal to quickly vote to pass the bill the same day or whether to wait until Wednesday to approve it.

“The finish line is now in sight,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a statement over the weekend, saying the bill’s passage would be “a watershed moment for the defense of democracy.”

Can’t stop working it until it’s on the President’s desk and signed. Please keep making your calls for Ukraine, and take another action on behalf of freedom and democracy here, and everywhere.

The President’s Statement on Passover and Rising Anti-Semitism - The President released the following statement on Sunday:

Tomorrow night, Jews around the world will celebrate Passover, recounting their miraculous Exodus story from hundreds of years of enslavement in Egypt and their journey to freedom. This holiday reminds us of a profound and powerful truth: that even in the face of persecution, if we hold on to faith, we shall endure and overcome.
 
As Jews mark Passover with storytelling, songs, and rituals, they will also read from the Haggadah how, in every generation, they have been targeted by those who would seek to destroy them. This year, those words carry deeper resonance and pain in the wake of Hamas’ unspeakable evil on October 7th – the deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust. More than 1,200 people were brutally massacred. Women and girls were subjected to appalling sexual violence. More than 250 innocents were taken hostage, including Americans. We can never forget the horror of Hamas’ despicable atrocities.
 
Jews around the world are still coping with the trauma of that day and its aftermath. This Passover falls particularly hard on hostage families trying to honor the spirit of the holiday – a story centered on freedom – while their loved ones remain in captivity. Our hearts are with all the victims, survivors, families, and friends whose loved ones have been killed, taken hostage, wounded, displaced, or are in harm’s way.
 
My commitment to the safety of the Jewish people, the security of Israel, and its right to exist as an independent Jewish state is ironclad. My Administration is working around the clock to free the hostages, and we will not rest until we bring them home. We are also working to establish an immediate and prolonged ceasefire in Gaza as a part of a deal that releases the hostages and delivers desperately needed humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians. We will continue to work toward a two-state solution that provides equal security, prosperity, and enduring peace for Israelis and Palestinians. And we are leading international efforts to ensure Israel can defend itself against Iran and its proxies, including by directing the U.S. military to help defend Israel against Iran’s unprecedented attacks last weekend.
 
The ancient story of persecution against Jews in the Haggadah also reminds us that we must speak out against the alarming surge of Antisemitism – in our schools, communities, and online. Silence is complicity. Even in recent days, we’ve seen harassment and calls for violence against Jews. This blatant Antisemitism is reprehensible and dangerous – and it has absolutely no place on college campuses, or anywhere in our country. My Administration will continue to speak out and aggressively implement the first-ever National Strategy to Counter Antisemitism, putting the full force of the federal government behind protecting the Jewish community.
 
This year, let us remember the central Passover theme that even in the darkest of times, the promise of God’s protection will give us strength to find hope, resilience, and redemption. To all those celebrating this Festival of Freedom: Jill and I wish you a Happy Passover, Chag Sameach.

While many campus protestors have been passionate and peaceful this spring, here is a video many Jewish families are watching and sharing at Passover. It was filmed outside the gates of Columbia this weekend. The chants explicitly back Hamas (Ya Hamas, we love you), not just Gazans, call for the killing of Jews and the burning of Tel Aviv to the ground:

Subscribe and Save Today - On May 1st an annual paid subscription here at Hopium will rise from $45 to $50. So if you are not yet a paid subscriber here and want to lock in the current lower rate, consider subscribing today. You will lock in that lower rate, and get all that you can from this site and community for the 2024 election.

A reminder that subscription renewals here at Substack grandfather in your original subscription rate for all time. So if you are already subscribed at $45 you don’t need to do anything. But if you are thinking about becoming a paid subscriber do so before May 1st and lock in this lower rate for as long as Hopium is doing it’s thing.

You can also learn more about gift and group subscriptions here.

The resources paid subscribers provide keeps this site growing and the Hopium flowing! My goal is to get 1,000 to 1,500 new paid subscribers by the end of April. So far over 800 have signed up - thank you everyone who has stepped up!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon