Morning all. I got together last night with our proud and patriotic paid subscribers for our weekly gathering. A video recording and a Substack transcript of our discussion are above.
Each week I try to take a step back from the day to day and evaluate where we are in our fight against MAGA and for our democracy and freedoms. Here is a summary of my main points from last night:
We Should Be Pleased With Our Electoral and Political Progress - Our wins and overperformances since Trump was elected remain remarkable and encouraging. These two flips we had in Florida were big ones this week, as we are now regularly flipping red seats and red places, not just purple ones in purple places. Despite Trump’s efforts, Emily Gregory flipped the state house seat that includes Mar-a-Lago, the very heart of MAGA itself. Just amazing stuff.
As we discussed last night I remain a bit stunned at the kinds of districts we are winning; how much the Trump coalition has collapsed; and the margins we are winning by in many places. The electorate has swung by between 7 and 12 points since 2024, and yes 2026 is a year of opportunity for us where things we thought impossible - like winning the Senate - have become possible.
The national rejection and repudiation of Trump’s rancid regime has been profound, and deeply encouraging. While polls in the early days of the war did not move very much this week we’ve started to see movement against him, and in most polls he is now at the lowest place of his second term.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found him dropping eight points in just this past week:
A new Fox News Poll has him at 41%-59%, his worst showing of the second term (and again look at the movement):
Here’s the editor of Real Clear Politics yesterday. This is data that every single Republican operative working on the 2026 elections will see this week - and it ain’t good.
G. Elliott Morris has some new data up from his monthly Strength in Numbers poll. It reinforces a point we’ve made here again and again - Trump can longer rally the country behind any of his initiatives. His powers of persuasion have ebbed, and some significant portion of the country - 52% to 58% - is no longer available to him. Here’s Morris:
The Trump administration is fighting public opinion on two fronts this week. First, our new poll finds a majority of adults blame the president and Senate Republicans for the current chaos at U.S. airports, and Americans oppose sending Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to help the Transportation Security Administration. Voters also disapprove of the president publicly refusing an offer from Senate Republicans to fund the non-ICE agencies in the Department of Homeland Security, including the TSA.
Second, the public also broadly opposes a possible escalation of the war against Iran that would put boots on the ground in the country. Voters want the U.S. to pursue ceasefire negotiations and an end to the conflict.
Here are the toplines from our new survey:
Headline findings
ICE at airports: 53% disapprove of deploying ICE agents to airports; 59% disapprove of Trump rejecting the Senate DHS funding deal.
Airport chaos: 77% say conditions at airports are worse than usual, and 52% blame the Trump administration or Senate Republicans for the current chaos — nearly double the 25% who blame Democrats.
ICE trust: Only 37% trust ICE to act professionally — the lowest of any agency we tested.
Iran: 72% oppose sending ground troops into the conflict. 60% prefer the U.S. pursue a ceasefire and negotiate with Iran, vs 29% who want to continue military operations.
Let’s look at the charts:
This data confirms that Congressional Dems are making the right call in going to the mats to rein in ICE funding.
Trump’s Three Vietnams, And His Inability To Negotiate And Make Deals - In my talk last night I spent a long time exploring the “Three Vietnams” theme I’ve been writing about this week (here, here). Simply, I believe Trump is now in a “escalation trap” on the three major initiatives of his second term - the tariffs/weakening economy, ICE/mass deportation, and the war. Each has done harm to the country and been rejected by the American people. But rather than cutting his losses and course correcting Trump has in all three areas vaingloriously and arrogantly doubled down, creating more failure, and driving him further and further away from the electorate. For the good of the country, and his own political prospects, it would be wise for him to cut and run on all three; but of course he cannot do that, for it would mean he would have to admit he was wrong. So he just keeps going, and keeps doing clear, material harm to the country and his party’s electoral chances in 2026. When pressed Trump can only escalate not negotiate.
While this dynamic may be good for us politically and electorally, it is terrible for the country and the world. As for the war I want to make it very clear where I stand - I think the danger to the global economy and global stability is far greater than is being represented in our domestic discourse right now. There is great urgency to restoring stability to the region and opening the Strait of Hormuz again for all ship traffic. The problem we now have, however, is that Iran’s leaders believes they are winning the war against America, and is not interesting in a cease fire or any form of “peace” with Trump who has so viciously attacked their country.
As I discuss in my talk this new dynamic suggests Trump is going to escalate and launch a ground invasion in the coming days to “finish the job” and reopen Hormuz. For leaving now, cutting his losses, would leave Iran in a stronger regional position than before the war, and now firmly in charge of the Strait of Hormuz. This would not only be humiliating and damaging to Trump domestically and globally, but his Gulf Arab investors have made it clear to him that he cannot leave now for it would leave them and the region’s exports vulnerable to a newly aggressive and angered Iran. This is no small thing, and a newly assertive and angered Iran threatening the economy and stability of the region is the fault of one man - Donald Trump. And his Gulf Arab investors are telling him he has to come clean up the incredible mess he has made by eliminating Iran as a threat - meaning full on invasion and regime change. Here’s the lead story in the Washington Post right now:
As the Trump administration makes what is says are initial peace overtures to Iran, U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, initially skittish about the war, have become fearful of a hasty settlement that leaves the region less stable than it was a month ago, officials and analysts say.
While Iran has been battered by nearly a month of U.S.-Israeli attacks, the war has not succeeded in toppling its government. Instead, it appears to have made the leadership in Tehran even more defiant and hard-line.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying for a decisive end to the war, through diplomatic or military means, according to a person briefed on that matter and three officials involved in the affairs of the region, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to share details with the media.
If Tehran doesn’t agree to severe restrictions on its missile, drone and nuclear programs, Saudi and Emirati leadership have indicated they would support an escalated military campaign aimed at pressuring concessions at the negotiating table, the officials, two European and one Arab, said.
Tehran, for its part, says it is not engaged in talks, and does not appear ready to give in.
Tehran’s moves to choke marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, devastating energy supply chains, and the attacks it launched on energy infrastructure in the region this month were particularly concerning in the Gulf, and cited by multiple officials as methods that a ceasefire without costs for Iran could incentivize.
At the beginning of the war, some Persian Gulf officials appeared more confident in the idea of regime change, but after seeing the limited impact of fierce U.S. and Israeli operations on the standing of the Iranian government, U.S. regional allies are now hoping military operations can change the behavior of Tehran, officials and analysts said.
and….
Regional officials say the messages they are hearing from Iran indicate the country is not willing to agree to the kinds of curbs to its missile and drone programs that they want. Ending the conflict now without serious repercussions would also incentivize further Iranian attacks, Arab officials have argued.
“Iran believes they are winning,” and agreeing to a ceasefire now would set a precedent that Tehran can launch attacks against its neighbors and shut the strait of Hormuz for leverage in the future, in the view of one of the Arab officials. He said other regional officials are also concerned that Iran-backed militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, would be empowered if the United States agreed to a ceasefire now.
and
Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political analyst, said Gulf leaders had warned the United States against war with Iran. Nearly a month in, he said his own message would be: “Finish the job.”
We are in the classic escalation trap in the Middle East. The war has failed. Iran is emboldened and stronger, and a far greater threat to the the global economy and global stability than before our illegal and unprovoked attack. So Trump really only has one choice now - escalation and full on invasion with intent to create regime change. Perhaps there is another path, and Trump will take it. But cutting and running is not in Trump the God Emperor/Mad King’s nature these days, nor frankly, will leaving an Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz be something that is in our interest.
This war may be the single biggest fuck up by an American President in our history. Iran is stronger today not weaker. Our economy and reputation in the world has taken an enormous hit. The cost of the war to the global economy is already rivaling the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2010. Energy and fertilizer shocks have introduced extraordinary instability into the world, threatening food supplies and the economies of countries across the globe. And the big problem is that in the past, when the world began to teeter, it was America who was there to stabilize things. That America no longer exists - in fact it is this new America, Trump’s America, that is the cause of all this.
As I wrote yesterday we are now at a point where we must start socializing the idea of a national unity government to help us get through this extraordinary crisis that no one should believe Trump can resolve on his own. Democratic leaders should start offering to help the White House work with our global allies to reach some new kind of arrangement in the Middle East and clean up the extraordinary mess he has made. To create trust our allies will require a sense that there is a new team running the country for the team that just created this historic disaster cannot be reasonably expected to fix it.
While this may seem bonkers - Trump giving up some of his power - right now it is hard to see another path out of the disaster he has created.
The Wisdom Of The Fathers, A New Birth Of Freedom - Finally I talked about how everything is happening now - the three Vietnams, all illegal, all undertaken without the assent of Congress, all doing enormous and lasting harm to America and the world - must become a powerful lesson for the rising generations of Americans about the wisdom of the Founders and the need for us to choose democracy over autocracy.
And just as it can be a lesson for us, Trump’s disastrous second term, Trump’s historic failures can become a lesson for the rising generations throughout the world of why they too must choose democracy and freedom over autocracy and oligarchy; and let us hope, and work towards, using this lesson of the Trumpian Mad King to spark a new birth of freedom here and everywhere.
We can start that process by making this weekend’s No Kings the most successful yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That’s what we talked about last night. Now….
Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $388,500 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.
Huge shoutout to the team at FridayAction. Our event last night raised $90,000 for our House candidates - amazing, amazing stuff!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That total is included in our total. Can folks chip in today and help us reach our $400,000 goal?
James Talarico For Texas - $34,600 raised, $100,000 March 31st goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Watch my recent interview with Rep. Talarico
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $53,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. | Watch my new interview with Mary Peltola
Winning Ohio - $82,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue!
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $90,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $145,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $424,600 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.
Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Sign Up For No Kings on March 28th
There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; sign up for a No Kings event and watch my new interview with Indivisible’s Ezra Levin, a driving force behind No Kings.
Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:
Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions
Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia
Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs
Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding
Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People
Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation
End the War on Science, Health and Public Health
Make Clear To American Farmers That We Want To End The War, Repeal The Tariffs, Find Legal Pathways For Farm Workers, And Make Health Care And Energy More Affordable
This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, rescind the tariffs, and on blocking the “SAVE Act.”
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon
