Trump Is Dangerously Desperate and Deeply Unwell, Strong Dem Q2 Fundraising, Great New Poll In Georgia
Trump is attempting to rig the election and prevent a peaceful transfer of power for the country has turned so decisively against him and the GOP
Morning all. Let’s look at some headlines:
Trump Promised Proof of Election Tampering. His Document Release Fell Far Short - NYT
Trump’s address stops short of offering evidence of vote tampering - Washington Post
Trump makes unverified claims of China ‘election meddling’ as critics fear ploy to challenge midterm results - The Guardian
Michigan election fraud cited in Trump speech had no impact on votes - Democracy Docket
On Bluesky last night Catherine Rampell noted that in documents Trump released there were confirmations of Russia’s work on Trump’s behalf in 2020 and that China “did not intend to “try to effect the election.”
Sam Stein posted this on Twitter last night:
So, yes, there were Borat-like levels of idiocy and buffoonery last night. Trump is scared and desperate, and clearly unwell. Which is why we must remain vigilant. Note this strong show of unity from the Democratic Governors:
Here’s Ranking House Intel Committee Member Rep. Jim Himes on Lawrence O’Donnell last night. He is clearly focused and on the case:
Remember what Marc Elias told us - the best way to beat this stuff is to win the election by as big a margin as possible. That remains Job One for us here at Hopium. But we can do more. Here’s what I wrote yesterday:
Here at Hopium we are responding to Trump’s escalating desperation and illiberalism by encouraging everyone to adopt Vote Early campaigns in their communities; by helping educate you about what Trump is attempting in our daily posts and in our Evolving Battlefield series of discussions; and in the coming days by launching a new effort to get our Congressional leaders to begin talking to the American people more forcefully about what Trump is attempting to do, and to lay out a clear accountability/renewing democracy agenda for when we return to power in January. For as Hardy Merriman told us a few months ago the global democracy movement has learned that those parties attempting to enact far reaching accountability and democratic reforms fair far better when they’ve campaigned on the reforms and earned a clear mandate from voters.
Here’s my recent polling analysis that suggests that Democrats should be leaning into these dangerous threats to our democracy with voters and not pivot away from them, as some have argued. Jim Himes does a very good of this in that clip, above.
Our calls this week to Congress opposing Blanche and Clayton were in part to help us start developing stronger muscles to fight our deeply unhinged leader’s efforts to “do whatever it takes” for him to stay in power, stay out of jail, and keep his corrupt gravy train going. So yes, we are on this peeps, but Job One remains helping our 40 courageous candidates win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Strong Dem q2 Fundraising - We are starting to get the q2 FEC reports and so far they are very encouraging. Today let’s look at what we’ve gotten from the Senate reports so far. This summary suggests that both Peltola and Turek are most in need of funds right now, and that yes Platner was out of money at the end of June.
Great New Poll For Georgia Dems - In our conversation this week Georgia Dem Chair Charlie Bailey said the electoral environment in Georgia was arguably the best since 1998. A new State Navigate poll confirms Charlie’s optimistic assessment, including that Democrats have a real chance of taking the Georgia State House. Here’s their poll summary:
A new State Navigate Poll conducted between July 10th and 13th shows Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia, with a 7-point lead over her Republican opponent Rick Jackson. This is the largest lead Bottoms has had in a public nonpartisan poll of the Georgia Governor’s race, which has seen sparse polling so far compared to previous cycles: our poll is the fifth public poll of the race thus far.
Given Democrats’ victories in 2025, the generic ballot, Gallup’s Quarterly Party ID, and other indicators, November is currently projected to be a 2018-esque environment, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Democrats are the prohibitive favorites to win a Governor’s race in a state that narrowly voted for President Trump in 2024: our forecast shows Bottoms with a 3-in-4 chance to win the race at the moment.
The more concerning findings in this survey are what lies in the downballot races. Democrats also currently lead the race for Lieutenant Governor by 4 points, and given the sheer number of open statewide races in Georgia this year and lack of ticket-splitting in the recent state government elections, there’s a decent chance they sweep all of them.
The most explosive finding in our survey, though, is that the Georgia House is in play for the first time in recent memory. When asked who voters plan to vote for in their local Georgia House of Representatives race, 51% say they plan to vote for the Democrat and 43% plan to vote for the Republican, or an 8-point lead for Democrats. If that result were to happen today, it’d blow the doors off of our Georgia House of Representatives forecast, where Republicans have a 3-in-4 chance of winning the majority. Democrats need to net 10 seats to win the majority, a level of government they haven’t controlled since 2002.
If you haven’t gotten to them yet my new interviews with party leaders Devon Murphy-Anderson of Maine, Charlie Bailey of Georgia, and Rita Hart of Iowa are all terrific, uplifting weekend fare. You can find links to the interviews with these three gritty warriors below, catch my weekly talk too, and and yes, my friends, it’s……
Time To Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The House and Senate In 2026
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $978,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - $175,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or running in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these seven, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with all of seven of these intrepid leaders here. We are off to a great start here everyone!
Winning The Senate - $491,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our five candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). The $489,000 figure includes what we’ve raised for these five so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here.
Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States
Winning Georgia (New) - $6,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund split a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party | Watch my new interview with Georgia Dem Chair Charlie Bailey
Winning Iowa - $20,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party | Watch my new interview with the great Chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, Rita Hart
Winning Maine - $64,900 raised, $75,000 goal - Donate | Right now this fund is only supporting the Maine Democratic Party to help them get through this challenging process of selecting a new Senate nominee but will expand in coming days to include both our gubernatorial candidate, Hannah Pingree, and our eventual Senate nominee too. Thanks to all of you who have rallied for the Maine Dems in the past few days - it’s a big deal! | Watch our new interview with the inspiring Executive Director of the Maine Dems Devon Murphy-Anderson
Winning Ohio - $179,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $631,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
2026 Election Analysis
A Few More Things To Do
Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year, and learn more about how our political battlefield is evolving this cycle; bring our Resolutions Project to your community; and fight for Hopium’s Agenda today and everyday!
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Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon
My husband saw that someone called the speech last night The Pettysburgh Address and that couldn't be more appropriate.
Throughout the whole Trump saga of the last decade he always seems to do better when he's NOT talking. So let him give whatever speeches he wants and remind people how much of a sore loser he is and put the issue of democracy front and center for us. He is so bad at it that it usually backfires and it may help us to re-engage some of the 2020 Trump to Biden voters who are exactly the kind of people who don't vote all the time but absolutely roll their eyes at sore loser stuff. Exactly the people we need.