2 New Polls Show Harris Gaining, Harris Is Working Hard And Closing Strong, Trump Just Keeps Melting Down

Tom Bonier and Ruben Gallego Join Us Tonight For Our Paid Subscriber Election Briefing at 7pm ET

Happy Wednesday all. As I’ve been writing the election remains close and competitive today, with polling remaining remarkably steady over the past weeks. Some toplines on where I think the race stands today:

• The Vice President has a 2-3-4 point lead in the national popular vote, is closer to 270 in the battlegrounds and has far better favs/unfavs than Trump. She is better liked and more likable and that matters as people make up their mind in the closing days

• Since Dobbs it has been the Democratic Party who has been overperforming public polls, and Rs/Trump who have been underperforming. Perhaps this election will be like 2020, but it is in my view far more likely to be like these post-Dobbs elections

• Our financial and ground advantages means more ads and direct voter contacts in the final days, making it far more likely we move a close election towards us than they move it towards them. In keeping with that theory we are outperforming 2020 so far in the 7 battleground state early vote - an encouraging sign. And there are 80 million postcards making their way to the battlegrounds!!!!!!!!!

• The GOP underperformance in battleground Senate and Gov races (esp. Lake and Robinson) remains a problem for Trump and Republicans more broadly, as does the unprecedented efforts by Republicans and former Republicans to persuade their Republicans to vote for Harris

• Abortion ballot initiatives could give us an extra boost in a few key places

• Be aware of the magnitude of the 2024 red wave effort. It has far bigger than 2022 and includes new actors like Polymarket and Elon. They are working hard to create the impression that the election is slipping away from us when it isn’t. And a reminder that they would only be flooding the zone with their polls again if they didn’t think they were winning the election

• Our candidate isn’t bat shit crazy and melting down on camera every day now. Our candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party and the most dangerous political leader in all of our history. Our candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is strong, winning, optimistic, committed to opportunity and freedom, is for the people and is working unbelievably hard to win this election for all of us.

Yes the NBC News poll this past weekend showed Harris dropping, but let’s look at other polls from the past week. We got two highly rated polls this morning showing Harris gaining:

• NPR/Marist Harris 52%-47% (+5) - gained 3 points since last poll

• TIPP Daily Track Harris 50%-46% (+4) - gained 1 point since yesterday

Here are some other encouraging polls from the past week (via 538):

• Harris 50-46 (+4) Morn Consult (new, yesterday)

• Harris 49-45 (+4) Econ/YouGov (new, today, no change from last week)

• Harris 49-46 (+4) NYT/Siena (+4 w/rounding)

• Harris 51-48 (+3) CBS/YouGov

• Harris 51-48 (+3) ABC/Ipsos

• Harris 49-46 (+3) RMG

And here is the latest 538 national popular vote poll average. Harris is one tenth of a point higher than a week ago:

Here is today’s Washington Post polling average of the battlegrounds. This average includes fewer of the red wave pollsters.

Here’s the latest 7 battleground state early vote tally (no GA yet) from TargetEarly. So far, so good peeps:

To sum up - it is a very close election, but I would much rather be us than them today. There is just a limit to how much polling can tell us now other than it is close. Polls are going to bounce around, as they always do, but let’s be very clear - we are in a stronger position than they are now, and if we put our heads down and do the work in these next few weeks we can have the election we all want to have. Ads like this new one from the Harris campaign are going to help. As it reminds us that while Democrats make things better for people, Trump’s policies are killing women today and it will get much much worse if he gets into the White House:

And ads like this one, one of my favorites of the election so far, just released this morning, make it far more likely we win. Friends, we are closing strong:

Three Hopium Events This Week:

• Tonight, Wednesday, 7pm ET - Weekly Hopium Paid Subscriber Live Election Briefing. Tom Bonier and Ruben Gallego will be joining us this week. Learn more, register and become a paid subscriber here. Paid subscribers will also received a separate email for registration later today.

• Thursday, 715pm ET - Call, Postcard for Tony Vargas (NE-02). Tony will be joining us for an update on his race, and I will be doing a brief overview of the national political landscape for those who come to work. These events have been great - thank you all! Register here.

• Friday, 1pm ET - Weekly home stretch gathering of Hopium Founding Members. You can upgrade to a Founding Member here.

Doing More, Worrying Less In The Home Stretch - Heads down, let’s keep working hard all. Be sure to review my new post on our home stretch strategy to close strong and win the election.

My one big ask today - let’s give to Ruben Gallego in anticipation of his joining us tonight live from the campaign trail. Arizona is so important this year - we are in close contests for President, Senate, 2 top 15 House races and have a real chance to flip both legislative chambers and send the some of the country’s most dangerous extremists packing. We’ve been in with Ruben from the early days, in part because I believe he knows the state better than anyone and the grassroots machine he was building for both Anglos and Latinos could power every other Dem across the state to victory. I hope by midnight tonight we get to $500,000 raised for Ruben. Help us get there today!

Be sure to review my new post on our home stretch strategy to close strong and win the election. For when we fight, we win! Let’s get to it:

Harris-Walz For President - $1,243,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:

• North Carolina - $822,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $467,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $261,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

• Wisconsin Dem Party - $43,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch Our Recent Closing Strong Interview with the great Ben Wikler

Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House in a few weeks. We need to keep working it peeps!

• Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,600,000 raised, $1,750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates

• Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List (Shah, Tran, Bohannan, Stelson, - $90,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.

• Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here.

• Winning The House Thursdays - This Thursday we gather for Tony Vargas (NE-02), Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Tony and the blue dot. Watch my wonderful interview with him. Recent polls have Tony ahead and we just have to keep working it!

You Can Now Call Or Postcard Anytime, Not Just on Thursdays - I will be doing a broader update on our postcarding and phonebanking program for the home stretch soon - we are still working on a few things.

Meanwhile our plucky community has now mailed over 100,000 postcards into these 15 races over these last several months. Our last day for postcarding given that we are targeting the early vote is this Friday, October 18th. If you head here you can grab more addresses for any of the 15 and help us keep driving the early vote and winning the election in October. At that link you can also find ways to phonebank for our candidates and Harris-Walz too any time - not just on Thursdays.

Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $467,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Montana/Jon Tester - $141,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $97,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Wisconsin Dem Party/Tammy Baldwin - $43,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch Our Recent Closing Strong Interview with the great Ben Wikler

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $261,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:

• Hopium Subscribers - 108,264 this morning, 125,000 goal

• Paid Subscribers - 12,634 this morning, 14,000 goal

This new effort is off a great start everyone - thank you! Keep working it. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below. It includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon