Biden Makes Gains in 4 New Polls, America Is Better Off And Safer Too, Dems Need A Reform & Renewal Agenda

I'm In Seattle Today - Come Join Me!/There's a 10% Discount On An Annual Hopium Subscription In June

Jun 11, 2024

Happy Tuesday all. Got a few things for you today:

Biden Gains in 4 New Polls, Encouraging New Latino Poll, 538 Has Biden Slightly Favored - As I wrote Sunday, it would not be surprising to the race shift 2-3 points towards Biden after Trump’s dramatic 34 felony convictions. While some of the early post-verdict polling didn’t find the election moving that much, the last 4 national polls released have all found the race moving towards Biden:

New York Times - Biden gains 2 points since April/May
Yahoo/YouGov - Biden gains 2, now up 46-44. “After Trump felony conviction, Biden leads for 1st time in months"
CBS News/YouGov - Biden gains 3, has 1 point lead now in the battleground states
Morning Consult - Biden gains 2, leads 44-43, “Biden leads Trump for first time in a month”

538 unveiled its 2024 forecasting model this morning and it gives Biden a 53% chance of winning the election. The key to how we win in this model is our strength in MI, PA, WI, the blue wall states which get us to 269 Electoral College votes, or check as I’ve been calling it.

Assuming we win MI, PA, WI, winning either AZ, NC or NE-2 (our state targets) gets us to 270 or as I’ve been calling it, checkmate. Regardless of this initial 538 data run, I think we are most likely to win AZ and NC due to the extremism of AZ’s Kari Lake and NC’s Mark Robinson, who are likely to bring down the entire GOP brand in both states; and NE-2, the blue dot, where current polling has us ahead. There is a lot of data nerdery in this new 538 model but the bottom line is that it currently favors Biden, which is where I believe the election has been for some time now.

A new Daily Mail article has incredible new reporting about the deeply unfit Mark Robinson:

The Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina Mark Robinson once insinuated the United States government was involved in both the attack on Pearl Harbor and the death of U.S. General George Patton as part of a conspiracy to help Joseph Stalin.
Robinson, who currently serves as the state’s lieutenant governor is now running in what is considered one of the most competitive governor races in the country in a state that is also a battleground in the presidential election come November.
In a 2018 radio interview, the host argued ‘Japan is the one who bombed us, but the most of our material, and effort went to Europe.’
‘Right. It really calls to question the motives and the suspicion around our entire introduction into the war, it really does,’ Robinson responded. ‘It raises serious questions.’
It’s one in a long series of conspiracy theories Robinson indulged before getting into politics. He has also been accused over the years of a number of anti-semitic, homophobic and sexist comments.

We also got some encouraging new polling of Latino voters from Voto Latino:

In an allocated head-to-head matchup, Biden is leading Trump among swing state Latino voters by a robust 59% to 39%. This is within striking distance of Biden’s 2020 performance and shows no meaningful rise in Latino support for Trump, which contradicts the widespread narrative.

For more on why I believe the gains Rs have made with Hispanic voters has been wildly exaggerated see my presentation and analysis, Democrats And The Hispanic Vote.

So where is the election today? Here’s my bottom line:

It is close, and competitive, with Biden having new momentum and a clearer path to 270. I would much rather be us than them, and believe we are favored to win.

Joe Biden Is A Good President, The Country Is Better Off, And GOP Attacks On Him Are Evaporating - The Atlantic has a new article by Roge Karma, The US Economy Reaches Superstar Status, which echo many of the arguments you hear here at Hopium. An excerpt:

If the United States’ economy were an athlete, right now it would be peak LeBron James. If it were a pop star, it would be peak Taylor Swift. Four years ago, the pandemic temporarily brought much of the world economy to a halt. Since then, America’s economic performance has left other countries in the dust and even broken some of its own records. The growth rate is high, the unemployment rate is at historic lows, household wealth is surging, and wages are rising faster than costs, especially for the working class. There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them.

Yesterday we got remarkable new crime data from the FBI:

The Quarterly Uniform Crime Report (Q1), January-March, 2024, provides a preliminary look at crime trends for January through March 2024 compared to January through March 2023. A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least two or more common months of data for January through March 2023 and 2024 indicates reported violent crime decreased by 15.2 percent. Murder decreased by 26.4 percent, rape decreased by 25.7 percent, robbery decreased by 17.8 percent, and aggravated assault decreased by 12.5 percent. Reported property crime also decreased by 15.1 percent.

America is not just better off under Joe Biden, we are far safer too. Here’s how I summarize it:

In the last few weeks we’ve gotten repeated confirmation of the success of the Biden Presidency - inflation is down, food prices are down, crime and murder rates are way down, gas prices are down, the flow to the border is down. We’ve had the strongest economic recovery of any advanced economy in the world, the best job market since the 1960s, the lowest uninsured rate in American history, the deficit is trillions less, the Dow has broken 40,000 and all three indices continue hover in record terrirtory, and domestic oil, gas and renewable production continue to be at all time highs leaving America more energy independent than it has been in decades. Consumer sentiment surged last month. The Wall Street Journal called the American economy the “envy of the world,” and the Economist just wrote about the unprecedented start up boom America is experiencing right now. Biden’s big three investment bills have dramatically accelerated the energy transition necessary to combat climate change and will be creating opportunities and jobs for our workers for decades to come.

The success of the Biden Presidency has become electorally significant because it is leaving Republicans very little to attack him with, and makes it far more likely the election becomes a referendum on Trump and not Biden. As I discussed yesterday the only really clean shot Republicans have now on Biden is on his age/weakness, which is why they are leaning so hard into this narrative frame; and why it is so important we take it away from them.

If we can establish that Joe Biden is successful, and the country is better off, it allows us to credit this success to Biden’s age and experience, helping turn his age into an asset. If Biden is leading in the election with a far better campaign and a party that has been winning elections of all kinds for years now he is politically strong, favored, more likely to win; and Trump becomes weak, struggling, losing, a craven, discredited man - rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon - the very opposite of a strong leader. We become strong, successful, winning. They become weak, craven and desperate, losing.

If we take away “Trump is winning and strong” all they are left with is the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, his insane public performances, an extreme, dangerous and deeply unpopular agenda, his rancid criminality - rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon, and a raging dumpster fire of a party with more leaders in open rebellion than any party in recent American history.

Taking away “Trump is winning and strong” is a very important piece of how we win.

More 2024 election resources from Hopium:

Democrats Need A Big Reform and Renewal Agenda - In my recent New Republic essay I wrote that Democrats should develop and campaign on a clear agenda to strengthen our democracy and tackle the corruption and rot (Thomas, Alito) that has overrun our Capital:

If the primary job of the first term was about successfully getting America to the other side of Covid, the second term should be about mobilizing unprecedented resources around tackling the next two existential challenges of our time–countering climate change and accelerating the energy transition from fossil fuels, and ensuring that freedom and democracy prevail here in the United States and everywhere.
The president should talk directly and forcefully to the American people about the existential nature of these dual challenges, particularly the rise of what is perhaps the most serious threat we’ve ever seen to the American-led, rules-based order; and he should prepare Americans for what could be years or even decades of hot and cold conflict with authoritarians at home and abroad. The president began that process this year with his compelling speech near Valley Forge in early January.
As part that mobilization, we will need to keep our economy strong and prosperous, persistently proving that democratic capitalism remains the best system for human advancement; develop a long overdue national strategy to restore integrity to our daily discourse, making it far harder for authoritarian forces to manipulate and control speech in open societies; build greater governmentwide institutional capacity to advance pro-democracy initiatives here and across the world; and be direct in asking the American people, as President Kennedy once did, to become active partners in ensuring we prevail in these deeply consequential struggles in the coming decades….
…..The president should commit to making progress in at least two other areas during his second term—cleaning up a city and a democracy that have been weakened by corruption and illiberalism of all kinds, and raising American life expectancy so it is again at the level of peer nations’.
I think Joe Biden should promise to clean up the city he has so long been a part of. Among the things we can tackle are the influence of foreign money, the need to raise ethical standards at the Supreme Court, eliminating the debt ceiling and the ability to shut down the government, and the wild abuse of Senate holds on nominations. Perhaps Biden could set up a commission to make broader recommendations on how to modernize and reform a city desperately in need of it.

Such an agenda is not just needed and necessary, but we know from polling that tackling “political corruption” is a high priority for two of our most important target groups - independents and young people. If President Biden were to lead the charge it would be a way of taking his many years here - experience, wisdom, understanding of how DC works - and turning the issue of his age into a powerful weapon against the Republicans.

Making June Count - The Hopium community is bringing it and making June count! Together we’ve raised over $450,000 for our candidates and states in the last three weeks! Incredible stuff, thank you all.

Here’s a fundraising update with our progress toward our June 30th goals:

Biden-Harris - $362,000 today, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Watch the New Biden-Harris Ad “Flag”
Winning The House - $281,000 today, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview w/George Whitesides CA-27
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $190,000 today, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
North Carolina - $239,000 today, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Nebraska/Blue Dot -$50,000 today, $100,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

This is a huge month and we just need to leave it all out there on the playing field - thank you, everyone!

As a token of my gratitude for all that you are doing, I am now offering a 10% discount on annual paid subscriptions for new subscribers through the end of the month. Click on this link to subscribe today. I hope we will get to 10,000 paid subscribers by June 30th - we are over 9,150 today - which will put Hopium in a financial place to close this election strong.

June Events, Hopium Hits The Road - I’ve added some new events to the schedule - check ‘em out! Note there is an “Upcoming Events” tab on the Hopium website’s navigation bar where you can always find our latest schedule.

Today, June 11, 230pm PT - I’ll be in Seattle, Washington for a conversation with Luis Miranda and Pearl Jam’s Stone Gossard to celebrate Luis’ new book RELENTLESS: My Story of the Latino Spirit That Is Transforming America. The event will take place at El Centro de la Raza’s Centilia Cultural Center, 1660 S Plaza Roberto Maestas Festival Street in Seattle. It’s free and open to the public and after the event concludes there will be a small gathering for Hopium Chronicles subscribers. Learn more, register here.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

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