Coming To Terms With The True Cost Of Trump’s Failed War, Ds Must Lean Hard Into The Energy Transition, The Dem Ticket Rocks South Texas

“The US Armed Forces have probably permanently lost access to 15 Persian Gulf bases”

Greetings all. I’ve had a wonderful week with my family, the first time all five of us have been together away from our DC home in years. Deeply appreciate the time away, and note that we will be returning to our normal schedule tomorrow. We already have interviews scheduled in the coming days with Senate candidate Josh Turek, WI Dem Chair Devin Remiker, House candidate Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Tom Bonier, and Dr. Rob Shapiro. I’ll be updating our candidate and state party recommendations and rolling out more detail about the state parties’ New Battlefield Project. In these final weeks of the 2026 campaign expect both more events and more live events as we work to close strong and do our part….

A reminder that we have a full time Intern opening for the fall. Send good candidates our way!

Got a few things for you on this Sunday……

Our discourse continues to struggle to capture the true economic and geopolitical costs of Trump’s failed war. Let’s review two tweets, the first from General Barry McCaffrey:

The second is the full tweet from former Trumper Anthony Scaramucci that McCaffrey references above:

Here’s our working estimate of the true costs of Trump’s failed war on the world:

Meanwhile here is what our addled, vainglorious, rapacious leader posted this over the weekend. Fantasy, not a plan:

Watch my recent conversation with Rep. Greg Meeks, Ranking Member Of The House Foreign Affairs Committee, to get a sense of how Dems are thinking about how to make all this better when back in power.

To prep for my live discussion with Tom Bonier on Tuesday here’s a summary of a new thread he just posted:

I've spent a lot of time thinking about last week's revelation regarding the two firms caught faking polls. I wrote something on Substack, but likely won't publish it because I don't think it needs my two cents at that level of detail. But, I will share a few thoughts here...

First, as I said last week after the first revelation (and was proven right faster than even I expected) and will restate here - I don't think these are the only two firms that have been part of the public polling discourse to have faked polls. Why?

What's more, the barrier to entry for creating high quality polls, which I believe are the antidote for all of the fakery, is so high that there are very few such public polls left.

To the reward/incentive: what we learned this past week is that anyone could create a site, fake data, and have a "poll" reported on in multiple news outlets, shared by candidates, etc. It could be amplified by poll aggregators. Heck, it could even impact prediction markets.

More insidious: fake polling could impact the public perception of a race, driving unfavorable media coverage for the perceived loser, or even harming fundraising efforts.

I‘ll be discussing this and more with Simon Rosenberg next Tuesday at noon eastern. I hope you’ll join us

Democrats are going to have to find the courage to become leaders in the fight against climate change and for the transition to cleaner, cheaper, more distributed energy. Here’s the NYT front page right now:

Love this:

New Hopium pods to watch and savor….

• House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries

• Rep. Greg Meeks, Ranking Member Of The House Foreign Affairs Committee

• Sherrod Brown (Ohio Senate), Troy Jackson (Maine Senate), David Jolly (Florida Governor)

• Marni von Wilpert (CA-48), Randy Villegas (CA-22), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07)

• Charlie Dingman, Maine Democratic Party Chair

Let us close with Hopium’s daily mantra:

There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.

Yes, my friends, it is that time…….

Time To Go Win Some Elections!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Our Winning The House Campaign - Donate | $1,118,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - Donate | $323,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, recent primaries and need a bit more help.

Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here.

Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $19,100 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).

Winning The Senate - $751,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).

Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

Winning Georgia - $31,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party

Winning Iowa - $33,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party

Winning Maine - $82,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Maine fund splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman

Winning Ohio - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $652,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon